College football by the odds: Vegas picks and preview of Week 9

Brant Sanderlin / Atlanta Journal-Constitution via AP

Fans celebrate after Georgia Tech beat Florida State in an NCAA college football game, Saturday, Oct. 24, 2015, in Atlanta. Georgia Tech won 22-16.

By Case Keefer (contact)

Friday, Oct. 30, 2015 | 12:40 p.m.

Calls for an upset-filled Saturday shifting the college football landscape were almost completely silenced last week.

Georgia Tech emerged as the only team to give the murmurs any credence. With a slate light on games between contenders, many people figured Week 8 would wind up as one of those infamous college football days that end with widespread upheaval.

But of the 12 undefeated teams that took the field last week, only two of them were beaten and only one was an upset. The Yellow Jackets inflicted the damage as 6-point underdogs at home against Florida State, which they beat 22-16 by returning a blocked field goal 78 yards for a touchdown on the final play of the game.

The favorites not only won but also covered in all 11 other contests featuring an undefeated team. They weren’t ideal results for sports books, which will hope for a more improbable Week 9.

It’s another schedule seemingly light on big games, with Notre Dame’s trip to Temple as 11-point favorites the only meeting between ranked teams. Is another Saturday of the top teams imposing their will in store?

Talking Points is here to try to find out. The blog is looking for a repeat when it comes to the picks’ performance, as the record making a bet on Saturday's 10 biggest games was 8-2 last week to bring the season total to 48-33-1.

Beating .500 was the goal going into the season given the difficulty of forcing a pick on every game, but falling that far behind in the last handful of weeks would be particularly devastating now with the nice cushion.

Check below for Week 9 of college football by the odds.

ASSOCIATED PRESS

Ole Miss minus-7 at Auburn, over/under: 57.5; 9 a.m. on ESPN

Ricardo Louis gifted Auburn backers with one of the more miraculous covers of all-time two years ago, so it was only fair that he’d eventually even it out and supply a particularly bad beat.

The now-senior receiver responsible for the Prayer at Jordan Hare during Auburn’s magical 2013 season helped force overtime at Arkansas last week with an acrobatic catch along the sidelines in the final minute of regulation. If not for the grab, Auburn would have covered plus-7 in a 24-21 loss.

Instead, they reached a fourth overtime and Louis dropped a touchdown pass to doom Auburn to a 54-46 loss and drop its against the spread record to 1-6 on the season. The point spread this week shows how far Auburn has fallen.

The Tigers were the team laying seven points in this spot over the summer. Ole Miss has earned the two-touchdown swing with a mostly positive season that got back on track last week with a 20-3 stomping of Texas A&M as a 5-point favorite.

A more sure-handed senior in Laquon Treadwell, who broke his leg in a wild ending to last year’s 35-21 Auburn win in the series, went over 100 receiving yards for the fourth time in five games. Ole Miss’ pass defense held Texas A&M to less than 3 yards per pass attempt, creating a challenge for Auburn sophomore quarterback Sean White.

Pick: Ole Miss minus-7 Not crazy about laying a touchdown on the road, but this line could be a little higher.
ASSOCIATED PRESS

USC minus-6 at California, over/under: 69.5; Noon on Fox

It didn’t take much to get the betting public back on board with the Trojans.

USC rose from a 3.5- to a 6-point favorite before kickoff against Utah last week, but it was all sharp action causing the movement. Sports books drew a lopsided percentage of tickets on Utah.

Those betting slips turned into garbage quickly as the Trojans routed the Utes 42-24, and now Las Vegas is a USC town once again. USC is getting upwards of 75 percent of the play for this week’s road game.

The action might be just as much a stance against California, though. Like the Utes, the Bears were a public underdog last week before disappointing their backers with a 40-24 blowout loss at UCLA.

Junior quarterback Jared Goff, who’s now posted his two lowest passer ratings of the season in back-to-back defeats, had his Tim Tebow moment afterward and vowed better effort for the rest of the season. But the offense isn’t the problem for the Golden Bears.

A defense giving up a mediocre 5.7 yards per play is more in need of repair. The unit could look to USC for inspiration.

Although the Trojans were efficient offensively behind the usual performances from quarterback Cody Kessler and receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster, it was a previously badmouthed defense that enabled the obliteration of Utah. Freshman linebacker Cameron Smith took a star turn with nine tackles, three interceptions and a touchdown.

Pick: California plus-6 When everyone else zigs, it’s best to zag.
ASSOCIATED PRESS

Georgia plus-2.5 vs. Florida in Jacksonville, over/under: 45.5; 12:30 on CBS

One of the newly renovated sports books in town should strongly consider naming a wing after the World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party, as if the game was a construction donor.

This bitter rivalry series has proven fortuitous to casinos over the last few years. Last season’s matchup was emblematic of that as Florida looked destitute coming in as a 13-point underdog but throttled Georgia 38-20.

It was the third straight year the underdog covered with two outright upsets, continuing a trend of the team getting all the betting action slipping at the neutral EverBank Field site. That’s bad news for Florida, which is drawing all the early money this year.

The Gators have looked far more impressive lately, covering five straight for an overall 5-2 against-the-spread record against the Bulldogs’ 2-5 mark that includes four straight losses to the number. Both teams share that they’d prefer to run the ball, especially now with Florida starting Treon Harris at quarterback for the suspended Will Grier.

Georgia lost Heisman candidate Nick Chubb to a knee injury two weeks ago but still averages 5.5 yards per carry for the season behind explosive fill-in Sony Michel. Florida’s running game has been surprisingly plodding at 3.5 yards per attempt, with neither Kelvin Taylor not Jordan Kronkite showing much big-play ability.

The teams are about even at stopping the run as Georgia allows 3.4 yards per rush attempt to Florida’s 3.5. The Gators’ two standout linebackers Antonio Morrison and Jarrad Davis clog the middle to account for about 20 percent of the team’s tackles while Georgia is strongest on the edges with Leonard Floyd and Jordan Jenkins.

Pick: Over 45.5 points Total opened as high as 48 before crashing, which shows these defenses are getting a bit too much credit.
ASSOCIATED PRESS

Clemson minus-11 at North Carolina State, over/under: 51.5; 12:30 on ESPN2

After looking like oncoming royalty during its nonconference slate, North Carolina State has turned into a pumpkin since the start of ACC play.

The Wolfpack blew out a quartet of overmatched teams and covered in every affair to open the season but has gone just 1-2 straight-up and against the spread with the only win against Wake Forest over the last month. That could cause a problem against Clemson, which is suppressing anyone in its way.

The Tigers’ 58-0 victory at Miami as 7-point favorites last week was their fourth cover by more than two touchdowns in seven games this season. They’re a team with no weakness as they rank in the top 10 in passing offense, passing defense and rushing defense in Football Outsiders’ S&P ratings.

Rushing offense is the only one where they fall outside that distinction, and they’re still No. 11 in that category. The ground game is North Carolina State’s strength, as junior running back Matthew Dayes and senior quarterback Jacoby Brissett are combining to average 6 yards per carry.

They haven’t needed to find a way to get past anyone like Clemson linebacker Ben Boulware or safety T.J. Green, however, with a strength of schedule that rates 98th in the nation according to Football Outsiders.

The Tigers’ opposition hasn’t been much better as they sit with the 85th rated strength of schedule, but they’ve got the annual game for ACC supremacy next week at home against Florida State. The potential look ahead could make this road game a tricky spot for Clemson.

Pick: North Carolina State plus-11 Clemson was almost too perfect last week as the Tigers are bound to come down some and grit out a victory.
ASSOCIATED PRESS

Oklahoma State minus-2.5 at Texas Tech, over/under: 79; 12:30 on ESPN

The odds of this game containing a college football playoff hopeful before the season were microscopic.

But Oklahoma State has trimmed its price to win the national championship from 100- to 20-to-1 to make this afternoon affair in Lubbock, Texas, significant, despite the fact that there wasn’t even a spread posted on it over the summer.

Texas Tech has played better than expected, too. The high-flying potential of coach Kliff Kingsbury’s Air Raid offense was known, but few expected the Red Raiders to rate fourth in the nation at gaining 7.2 yards per play.

They’ve been victimized by having already played the top three power-rated teams in the Big 12 — TCU, Baylor and Oklahoma — or else it’s easy to envision their record being better than 5-3 straight-up, 4-3-1 against the spread. Those games are all upcoming for Oklahoma State, which has covered in four of its last five contests to bring its season totals to 7-0 straight-up, 4-3 against the spread.

They’ve won and covered in both Big 12 road games so far, but Kingsbury would make the case that Jones AT&T Stadium is a different animal. Texas Tech hasn’t failed to cover in five straight games or nearly a year at its home venue.

Oklahoma State falls just outside the nation's top 10 in giving up only 4.4 yards per play, but the strong secondary that includes safeties Jordan Sterns and Tre Flowers is about to see a new level of passing attack.

Pick: Oklahoma State minus-2.5 Can’t find an edge here, so flipping a coin might have been just as worthwhile.
ASSOCIATED PRESS

Michigan minus-13.5 at Minnesota, over/under: 38.5; 4 on ESPN

Handicapping the impact of an interim coach is one of the more difficult challenges for sports bettors.

The unique case of Minnesota’s Tracy Claeys, who takes over this week, won’t make matters any easier. Claeys fills the void left by Jerry Kill, who retired earlier this week because of his continued battle with epilepsy.

Some gamblers like to fade change in the middle of the season, while others think it can spark a team. It’s hard to predict where the Golden Gophers will be emotionally going into a game the point spread implies as their toughest game since losing to TCU 23-17 as 16.5-point underdogs in the season opener.

Perhaps that’s part of the reason why the line has stayed so still this week. Bettors may also be gun-shy with the Wolverines considering they haven’t been back on the field since punter Blake O’Neill’s bobbled snap cost them their rivalry game with Michigan State.

Despite Michigan’s quick ascent under coach Jim Harbaugh, it hasn’t been a popular bet volume-wise. The Wolverines saw most of the action come in against them in each of their last two games — against the Spartans, a 27-23 loss as touchdown favorites, and Northwestern, a 38-0 win as 10-point favorites.

Not compelling the masses is nothing new for a team that rides defense — Michigan leads the nation in giving up 3.3 yards per play — more than offense, where the Wolverines are producing a middling 5.2 yards per play.

Pick: Michigan minus-13.5 Not interested in betting against Michigan without a very good reason for the rest of the season.
ASSOCIATED PRESS

Tennessee minus-9 at Kentucky, over/under: 57.5; 4:30 on SEC Network

If games were only a few minutes shorter, Tennessee would be one of the top-ranked teams in the country.

The Volunteers fell 19-14 as 14.5-point underdogs at Alabama last week, but only after following the script from their previous two losses and blowing a fourth-quarter lead. Kentucky has barely led at all in back-to-back losses and noncovers to Auburn and Mississippi State the last two weeks.

The Wildcats have lost 29 of their 30 meetings with the Volunteers, which have also covered in seven of the last eight. Kentucky doesn’t appear to have many advantages once again and could be specifically susceptible on the ground, where it ranks 80th in rushing defense per Football Outsiders’ S&P.

Tennessee sophomore running back Jalen Hurd even found room against Alabama’s ballyhooed front last week, gaining 92 yards on 18 carries. Kentucky will need a bounce-back from junior quarterback Patrick Towles, who’s thrown three interceptions and no touchdowns the last two weeks, for any chance at the upset.

Tennessee averages giving up a paltry 7.6 yards per pass attempt. Bettors are unconcerned, boosting the point spread consistently up from an opener of minus-7.5.

Pick: Kentucky plus-9 Tennessee is the far better team, but not trustworthy enough to lay nearly double digits on the road.
ASSOCIATED PRESS

Miami plus-11 at Duke, over/under: 48; 4:00 on ESPNU

Of the seven teams in the ACC Coastal, only Virginia came into the season with longer odds to win the division than Duke.

But the Blue Devils now control their own destiny in a quest to return to the ACC Championship Game for the second time in four seasons after starting conference play 3-0 straight-up. Junior quarterback Thomas Sirk has come of age with five touchdowns and no interceptions over the last two weeks.

Sirk has also gained 430 yards on the ground, which is where the Blue Devils may look to go after the Hurricanes. Miami ranks 123rd in the nation in giving up 5.9 yards per rushing attempt.

Those struggles are one of the primary reasons why coach Al Golden, still beloved by the players, was let go after an all-time program-worst 58-0 loss to Clemson as 7.5-point underdogs last week. The loss of sophomore quarterback Brad Kaaya, who went down with a concussion, might be even more hurtful.

Although there’s been no official word on his status against Duke, reports have surfaced that he won’t play. Oddsmakers are going with that assumption, as this line is a couple points higher than normal with freshman replacement Malik Rosier, who questionably referred to filling in for Kaaya as “awkward.”

Pick: Duke minus-11 Miami, which only had Kaaya going for it in the first place, feels like a mess right now.
ASSOCIATED PRESS

Notre Dame minus-11 at Temple, over/under: 49.5; 5:00 on ABC

Once only adored in Las Vegas and Philadelphia, Temple is now getting love from the rest of the country with a 7-0 straight-up record and a spot as hosts of the biggest game of the week.

One of the Owls’ best seasons ever follows a string of profitable years at the betting window. Temple has posted winning records against the spread in seven of the past eight seasons, during which it’s been 16 games over .500 versus the number.

Perennially inflated Notre Dame has the opposite history, but it’s making up for a usual lack of covering this season. The Fighting Irish are on a five-game covering streak and 6-1 against the spread overall. The Owls are 5-2.

Notre Dame is getting the betting action this week with the spread springing up from an opener of minus-9.5. The concern is that Temple hasn’t seen an offense quite like this.

Notre Dame ranks in the nation’s top five in gaining 7.1 yards per play behind what Football Outsiders S&P measures as the top rushing offense. Senior C.J. Prosise has run for 922 yards and 11 touchdowns with backup freshman Josh Adams — a Philadelphia native — even more productive on a per-rush basis with 34 attempts for 265 yards.

Temple can stop the run, though, and is only allowing 3 yards per rush to rate eighth in the nation. The Owls’ star power is on defense and starts with senior linebacker Tyler Matakevich, who leads the team in tackles and has four interceptions and four sacks on the year.

Pick: Over 49.5 points Temple should be able to run the ball better than expected, and playing the total means I can bet on that without going up against Notre Dame.
ASSOCIATED PRESS

Stanford minus-11 at Washington State, over/under: 62.5; 7:30 on ESPN

Either the Cougars or the Cardinal will miss making it out of October with an unblemished against-the-spread record by about an hour.

The two teams sitting atop the Pac-12 North division are among the hottest in the nation with a combined 11-1 straight-up and against-the-spread record since Week 1, where they both suffered now especially inexplicable upsets. Washington State fell to Portland State 24-17 as 30-point favorites, while Stanford couldn’t live up to its minus-10 line in a 16-6 loss at Northwestern.

They’ve smothered opponents ever since — just through different methods. Although Stanford is third in the nation with an average of 9.8 yards per passing attempt, it prefers a pro-style offense heavy on the run.

Sophomore Christian McCaffrey and senior Barry Sanders combine to average 6.5 yards per carry, which could be lethal against a Washington State team allowing 5.1 yards per rush attempt to rank in the nation's bottom 30. The Cougars hardly ever run the ball.

Coach Mike Leach has found perhaps the best quarterback of his tenure in Pullman, Wash., in sophomore Luke Falk, who has 26 touchdowns to four interceptions. Falk’s favorite target, junior Gabe Marks, ranks seventh in the nation with 10 touchdown receptions.

Washington State is only 3-6 against the spread as a home underdog since Leach’s arrival. Stanford is 12-8 versus the number as a road favorite under coach David Shaw.

Pick: Under 62.5 points Think the number is high anyway, but with a chance for rain, this is the only way to look.