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March 19, 2024

Best bets on college football playoff, Heisman and opening-night games

0820ElCortezSportsbook

Steve Marcus

A view of the race and sports book at the El Cortez Hotel in downtown Las Vegas Thursday, Aug. 20, 2015.

The anticipation ends; the season begins.

Welcome to one of the best (sports) days of the year. College football is here.

Talking Points has spent the last six weeks previewing every major conference from a betting angle. Now it’s time to put that knowledge into action.

Ten lined games between Football Bowl Subdivision teams commence sports books’ emergence from hibernation tonight. A sports-betting blog not picking any games on the first day of football season sounds almost as preposterous as a political rag ignoring projections on election night.

So I’ll get to the season’s first pair of picks at the bottom of the page after weighing in on the broader college football picture. The conference columns left no time to analyze the two most discussed questions of the preseason — Which teams will make the college football playoffs, and who will win the Heisman Trophy?

Might as well fit in a couple extra future bets before it’s too late.

Teams to make the College Football Playoff: Florida State at plus-260, Baylor at plus-300, UCLA at plus-600 and LSU at plus-600

Before running away from this blog with more authority than Ezekiel Elliott bursting through the middle, it’s important to remember these picks are based on the odds. Ohio State is without question the rightful No. 1 team in the country, and has the best chance of anyone to make the playoff for the second year in a row.

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Ohio State's Ezekiel Elliott (15) runs for a nine-yard touchdown during the second half of the NCAA college football playoff championship game against Oregon Monday, Jan. 12, 2015, in Arlington, Texas.

But I’m not paying minus-350 (risking $3.50 to win $1) to find out whether the Buckeyes live up to expectations. No single team should have better than a 75 percent chance of reaching the final four, as the line implies, and especially not one that appears to close the season with their two toughest games — versus Michigan State and at Michigan.

For more justification, look back to last year. Florida State in 2014 was every bit as heralded as Ohio State this year. Did the Seminoles make the playoff? Yes. Were they one of the four best teams? No, not a single set of oddsmakers’ power ratings would have placed them there after a regular season where they escaped by less than a touchdown in seven of their 13 games.

It’s not unfathomable that Ohio State stumbles no matter how many starters it returns or how many points it lays on the betting line. The Buckeyes looked indomitable in their final three games last season, but mortal performances against the likes of Virginia Tech, Penn State and Minnesota were also part of their year.

Maybe they return too many quarterbacks for my liking. All four teams I picked will start a new quarterback in 2015.

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UCLA wide receiver Jordan Payton (9) celebrates as he jogs off the field after an NCAA college football game against Texas, Saturday, Sept. 13, 2014, in Arlington, Texas.

But the other commonality is that they have almost everything else in place, which could make them undervalued. Baylor and UCLA are extreme examples, bringing back 18 starters apiece.

There’s not a twinge of doubt in my mind that Baylor, not TCU, is the best team in the Big 12. Last year’s game between the two teams is often remembered for TCU blowing a 21-point lead in the final minutes, but for some reason Baylor racking up nearly 800 yards is all but forgotten.

UCLA can’t claim to coming as close as Baylor in 2014, but the Bruins are even more stacked in 2015. They’ll have to navigate the Pac-12’s treacherous terrain under freshman Josh Rosen, last year’s consensus top quarterback recruit in the nation, but that’s not enough of a reason for conference-mates USC and Oregon to be available at half as lucrative of a price.

Speaking of highly touted players, Florida State might be breaking in the nation’s largest embarrassment of riches. It all feels eerily similar to the construction of the 2013 team, which wound up as one of the best of the era.

Behind the Buckeyes, the Seminoles have the largest chance of any team to finish the regular season undefeated because of their more-than-manageable schedule. The toughest contest looks like a Nov. 7 trip to Clemson, who’s currently a 2-point favorite.

That was the same line in the preseason for the game two years ago, and it was over before the end of the first quarter as Florida State galloped to a 51-14 victory.

My longest shot, LSU, comes out of a belief that the selection committee will not pass on the SEC champion. And the SEC West division should produce the conference’s champion, so it becomes a process of elimination.

Scratch Auburn, which is inflicted with unsubstantiated hype in the sports books and beyond. Getting less than 2-to-1 with Alabama also sounds undesirable given its lack of experience and one of the nation’s toughest schedules.

Ole Miss and Arkansas are seductive, but don’t have the talent of LSU. Leonard Fournette, Travin Dural, Malachi Dupre and Tyron Johnson might make up the best collection of weapons anywhere.

It feels unwise to count out sophomore quarterback Brandon Harris’ chances of getting the ball to them based on one horrendous start last season. The Tigers’ defense looks as rigid as ever.

As long as coach Les Miles lays off the coffee and sticks to grass, his team should eradicate negative murmurs surrounding his job security.

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Alabama running back Derrick Henry (27) runs toward the end zone against Ohio State linebacker Joshua Perry (37) in the first half of the Sugar Bowl NCAA college football playoff semifinal game, Thursday, Jan. 1, 2015, in New Orleans. Henry scored a touchdown on the play.

Derrick Henry to win the Heisman Trophy at 25-to-1

Alabama ended last season to a chorus of cries that it didn’t utilize the running game enough. The Crimson Tide will make up for it this season.

And, for the first time his career, the pulverizing junior is in the lead role. This is mostly a value play, as Henry hasn’t gotten the same amount of attention as running backs like Elliott, Fournette and Georgia’s Nick Chubb in the Heisman market.

Henry opened 15-to-1 and gradually drifted upwards. He now sits at 25-to-1, which is the same price he entered last season despite sharing time with the graduated T.J. Yeldon.

If Alabama makes the college football playoff, it’s going to be because Henry powered them there.

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Vanderbilt defensive end Caleb Azubike (55) and linebacker Stephen Weatherly (45) wait for a drill during NCAA college football practice Thursday, Aug. 6, 2015, in Nashville, Tenn.

Thursday Night plays: Michigan plus-6 at Utah, Vanderbilt plus-2.5 vs. Western Kentucky

It’s just the way anyone would like to start the season — by backing two teams that couldn’t reach bowl eligibility last year.

Not really, but the Wolverines and Commodores will be much improved in 2015. It’s worth betting them before the market adjusts.

The consensus opinion seems to suggest that it will take new coach Jim Harbaugh a couple of years to turn around Michigan’s program. But why?

This isn’t Stanford. He’s got the players to make a major leap immediately, especially on defense.

Michigan returns four of a front seven that allowed 3.2 yards per rushing attempt last season, ranking seventh in the nation. Utah, conveniently, struggles to do anything offensively except run the ball.

Speaking of matchups, Western Kentucky is breaking in a new offensive line. Vanderbilt anticipates its strength this season being a pass rush starring Stephen Weatherly and Caleb Azubukie.

The Hilltoppers’ prolific quarterback, Brandon Doughty, shouldn’t have time to operate. If anything can get Vanderbilt’s inert offense moving, it’s a game against a Western Kentucky defense that gave up 6.5 yards per play last season.

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.

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