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UFC 191 breakdown, betting odds and picks

UFC 191 Media Day at MGM

L.E. Baskow

Demetrious Johnson, the UFC flyweight champion, enjoys a lighter moment during an interview at the UFC 191 media day at the MGM Grand Casino on Thursday, September 3, 2015.

UFC 191 Media Day at MGM

Demetrious Johnson, the UFC flyweight champion, and opponent John Dodson, the No. 1 UFC flyweight contender, strike different poses during UFC 191 media day Thursday, Sept. 3, 2015, at MGM Grand. Launch slideshow »

John Dodson may have made as much money for his friends as he did for himself the first time he fought in Las Vegas.

Dodson said his entourage was surprised to see him as a 2-to-1 underdog in the sports books before his UFC debut against T.J. Dillashaw in “The Ultimate Fighter” 14 finale four years ago, and acted accordingly. They poured in bets, and reaped the benefits when Dodson knocked out Dillashaw in less than two minutes.

“There was a big margin sitting there saying I’m a huge underdog,” Dodson recalled. “I was like, ‘That’s perfectly fine. Y’all can think that.’”

The flyweight top contender is taking the same attitude into the main event of UFC 191 Saturday at the MGM Grand Garden Arena. And his friends are staring at an even larger payout.

Dodson currently sits as a plus-450 (risking $1 to win $4.50) underdog to unseat Demetrious Johnson, who comes back at minus-600 (risking $6 to win $1). The lines translate to an 84 percent chance Johnson retains his title.

Dodson believes the oddsmakers are mistaken again, especially since he thinks he already defeated Johnson in their first meeting in January 2013. Dodson was only plus-210 in a fight that’s remembered for its competitiveness, meaning there could be value at double the price in the rematch.

Was anyone from the Sun’s picks panel bold enough to call for the upset?

Check below to find a breakdown, betting odds and picks from ESPN Radio’s Steve Cofield (65-38 year to date), KSNV’s Randy Howe (65-38), Las Vegas Sun’s Case Keefer (62-41) and Las Vegas Sun’s Ray Brewer (60-43) on the entire UFC 191 card.

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.

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