Week 1 NFL picks and game of the week for the Sun’s handicapping contest

By Case Keefer (contact)

Sunday, Sept. 13, 2015 | 2 a.m.

Like Disneyland visitors leaving Mickey Mouse stranded in a corner with no meet-and-greet line in sight, sports book customers ignored football betting’s most iconic figure this summer.

Bettors abandoned Peyton Manning for perhaps the first time since the Denver quarterback’s rookie season. Manning commanded action like no other player — aside from New England quarterback Tom Brady — over the last 16 years and was mostly dependable.

He’s posted a profitable 146-125-9 lifetime against the spread record. But the backing has diminished in 2015, evidenced even in the point spread for the Broncos’ season-opener hosting the Ravens at 1:25 this afternoon.

CG Technology sports books posted Denver as 4-point favorites in April, and the game has seen virtually no shift aside from a few books adding a half-point over the last five months. Reports around town indicate relatively even betting action on both sides, a rarity for the Manning era.

The Sun’s revamped handicapping contest is similarly split on the premier week 1 matchup. The three competing sportswriters, whom must make a pick on the game of the week to go with five other choices at the bottom of the page off the South Point betting board, came to no consensus.

Manning inflicted some of the indifference on himself. He posted a losing record against the spread last season at 8-9 for the first time since 2002, when for the sake of reference, Brian Griese and Jeff Blake were the respective Denver and Baltimore starting quarterbacks.

More than the overall betting mark, the Broncos’ 2014 season is remembered for how it ended. Manning struggled to throw as if he were wearing a mouse costume, averaging only 4.6 yards per pass attempt — three less than his career average — in a 24-13 playoff loss to the Colts where the Broncos were 9.5-point favorites.

The defeat dropped Denver to 4-6 against the spread since the start of November. It later came out that Manning played through a torn right quadriceps in at least half of those games.

But the betting market is treating the 39-year-old Manning’s health as more of a character flaw than a conquerable conflict.

The Broncos saw no movement on their odds to win the Super Bowl, a fourth choice at 8-to-1, or their win total, over/under 10 victories, all offseason at the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook. Sports books would previously almost have to open the gates early to allow the hordes to fling their money towards Manning at first opportunity.

The Broncos’ front office has demonstrated as much concern as gamblers. General Manager John Elway, who’s experienced at closing legendary careers with Super Bowls, fired coach John Fox in favor of Gary Kubiak.

The hope is that Kubiak — 63-66 straight-up, 60-65-4 against the spread as a head coach — installs a successful run-first offense to relieve Manning of some pressure. The former Houston Texans coach created magic as offensive coordinator last season in Baltimore. He transformed the Ravens into a top-10 rushing offense behind discarded Jaguar Justin Forsett one season after they fielded the fourth-worst rushing attack of the last 25 years, according to Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric.

Kubiak should have more to work with in Denver where third-year back out of California C.J. Anderson totaled more than 100 all-purpose yards in five of the final seven games last season.

The philosophies of Kubiak and Manning appear to clash, and it’s difficult to predict just how the offense will function until the Broncos step on the field. It’s not insignificant to note that the Ravens were much better against the run than the pass last season.

One of the best groups of linebackers in the NFL — featuring Terrell Suggs, Daryl Smith C.J. Mosley and Courtney Upshaw — helped hold opponents to 3.5 yards per rush attempt, second-lowest in the league. Baltimore’s secondary was far more fallible.

Manning has a history of success against the unit with 956 yards in three games against Baltimore since coming to Denver. That included the memorable seven-touchdown, season-opening performance against the Ravens two years ago, which the Broncos won 49-27 as 7.5-point favorites. The historic romp followed the 2012 playoffs when the Ravens eliminated the Broncos 38-35 in overtime as 9.5-point underdogs en route to winning the Super Bowl.

In many respects, Baltimore looks like the team bettors are higher on coming into this season. The Ravens’ Super Bowl odds trimmed from 20- to 16-to-1 at the Superbook, making them the eighth most-likely champions, and the asking price on their “over” win total sprung upwards.

They aren’t without warts of their own. Baltimore comes into the season as a more injured team than Denver, especially among the receiving corps where 36-year-old Steve Smith and former undrafted free agent Kamar Aiken must emerge as top targets.

That creates a mismatch on paper for Denver’s elite cornerback duo of former University of Kansas teammates Aqib Talib and Chris Harris. Lost in all the trepidation about the Denver offense was the fact that the defense ranked third in the league last season by DVOA.

It’s a major luxury for Manning after he spent most of his earlier years around mediocre to average stop units.

The face of an organization isn’t necessarily obsolete as soon as there’s a dip in attention. Sometimes, it just needs fresh surroundings.

Check below for all of the week 1 picks for the Sun’s handicapping contest with games listed in order of sports books’ rotation numbers.

Case Keefer (2012 & 2014 champion, 2013 co-champion)

Lifetime Record: 161-140-5 (56-44-2 last year)

Chiefs plus-1 at Texans

Jets minus-3 vs. Browns

Saints plus-2.5 at Cardinals

Ravens at Broncos over 48

Giants plus-6 at Cowboys

Falcons plus-3 vs. Eagles

Taylor Bern

Lifetime Record: 146-150-10 (54-45-3 last year)

Packers minus-7 at Bears

Redskins plus-3.5 vs. Dolphins

Buccaneers minus-3 vs. Titans

Raiders plus-3 vs. Bengals

Ravens plus-4 at Broncos

Giants plus-6 at Cowboys

Ray Brewer (2013 co-champion)

Lifetime Record: 145-155-6 (48-54 last year)

Texans minus-1 vs. Chiefs

Jets minus-3 vs. Browns

Colts minus-2.5 at Bills

Redskins plus-3.5 vs. Dolphins

Saints at Cardinals over 48

Broncos minus-4 vs. Ravens

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.