Vegas Play of the Day: Arkansas State at Toledo

By Case Keefer (contact)

Saturday, Sept. 26, 2015 | 2 a.m.

We've reset the Play of the Day with fresh bankrolls and turned it into a yearly competition. Our three sports writers have restarted with $10,000 bankrolls to continue using on odds from the South Point.

Arkansas State plus-7 at Toledo: $440 to win $400

Somewhat out of nowhere, Toledo has fallen into front-runner status for the Group of Five conferences’ automatic bid to a New Year’s Six bowl game. That newfound status alone should single out the Rockets as fade material before getting to the fact that they have a dangerous matchup to close nonconference play.

Arkansas State has posted comparable metrics to Toledo despite playing a significantly tougher schedule. The Red Wolves have improved every week, going from getting blown out 55-6 at USC as 27-point underdogs in week 1 to giving Missouri a scare in a 27-20 loss as 9.5-poing underdogs in week 2.

Last week they posted a 70-7 romp, and yeah, it was only against Missouri State but the line on the game was minus-22.5. Toledo hasn’t necessarily gotten better as much as luckier.

The Rockets pulled off one of the biggest upsets of the year in beating Arkansas two weeks ago largely thanks to the home team’s bafflingly inept red-zone offense. The Razorbacks outgained the Rockets by 197 yards in the loss.

Toledo apparently doubled down on the get-outplayed-and-still-win strategy, as it snuck out a 30-23 overtime victory against Iowa State despite giving up nearly 500 yards last week.

The Rockets are likely thinking the Red Wolves are nothing compared to their major-conference conquests. Arkansas State will correct that misconception.

Current Standings (as of July 1): Brewer (14-12, $10,010), Bern (10-11, $9,975), Keefer (8-20-1, $4,331)

Lifetime Records: 2014-15 champion Bern (92-84-1), Keefer (92-103-3), Brewer (83-99-2)

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.