NBA Playoffs in Las Vegas: First-round preview, odds and picks

By Case Keefer (contact)

Saturday, April 16, 2016 | 2 a.m.

The only thing deeper than Stephen Curry’s shooting range in this year’s NBA Playoffs is the competitiveness gulf of the two conference’s first-round matchups.

Never in recent NBA history have the betting odds contrasted so starkly.

There’s a 76 percent chance, per CG Technology’s series odds, that all four teams with home-court advantage in the West advance to the conference semifinals. The probability is only 29 percent the same occurs in the Eastern Conference.

That’s what happens when one conference has two teams that rate inside the top 10 all-time in point differential while the other’s defining characteristic is six teams separated by less than 10 games in the standings.

Oddsmakers rewarded the Golden State Warriors and San Antonio Spurs for outscoring opponents by more than 10 points per game by making them the top two championship choices at minus-150 (risking $1.50 to win $1) and plus-300 (risking $3 to win $1), respectively. San Antonio is actually even with Eastern Conference favorite Cleveland at 3-to-1, but would come in as the favorite in a prospective NBA Finals matchup.

There’s plenty of basketball to be contested before the championship series begins in June, however, starting with the opening round today. At least two upsets have materialized in the first round for seven straight years.

If the streak continues in 2016, it’s likely to come in the East.

Check below for our series by series preview of the first round including odds, analysis and picks.

No. 1 seed Golden State Warriors vs. No. 8 seed Houston Rockets

Series price: Warriors minus-6000; Rockets plus-1700

Game 1: Warriors minus-13 (12:30 p.m. Saturday)

Overview: Remember the debate last year over whether Curry or James Harden deserved the MVP trophy? Feels like forever ago by virtue of the former putting up a historical 2016 season and the latter falling off. Although Harden’s traditional statistics stayed at the same level, advanced metrics illustrate his decline. Harden, for instance, fell to eighth in Player Efficiency Rating and 12th in win shares per 48 minutes. Curry is first by a margin in any conceivable category. Their teams underwent similar trajectories, making it difficult to imagine Houston securing three covers against Golden State like it did in last year’s Western Conference Finals. The Rockets went 1-2 against the spread, 0-3 straight-up against the Warriors in the regular season with the only cover by a half-point in a 123-110 loss. Then again, the odds have caught up with the Warriors as they’re only 14-16 against the spread since the All-Star Break.

Betting approach and pick: Resist the temptation to lay inflated game-by-game prices with the Warriors, but expect a sweep nonetheless.

No. 4 seed Los Angeles Clippers vs. No. 5 seed Portland Trail Blazers

Series price: Clippers minus-400; Trail Blazers plus-320

Game 1: Clippers minus-8 (7:30 p.m. Sunday)

Overview: The odds imply a 78 percent chance the Clippers advance — and yet, the betting market sees the series as four times closer than any other matchup in the West. It’s remarkable the Blazers have that much of a chance dating back to the beginning of the season when they had the lowest win total of any team except the 76ers. They beat their over/under of 27.5 wins by 16.5 games, while the Clippers fell short of eclipsing their 56.5 wins by 3.5. Los Angeles still exceeded expectations when factoring in it played without Blake Griffin for more than half of the season. That the Clippers seem to need to rectify how to play with Griffin more than without him is one of the biggest surprises going into the postseason. They went 31-16 straight-up, 32-15 against the spread in the All-Star power forward’s absence this season, and 22-13 straight-up, 13-19-3 agianst the spread when he played.

Betting approach and pick: Portland probably doesn’t have enough to pull off the upset, but it could prolong the series and prove profitable on the point spread. Look for places to back the Blazers, which lose in seven.

No. 3 seed Oklahoma City Thunder vs. No. 6 seed Dallas Mavericks

Series price: Thunder minus-3000; Mavericks plus-1200

Game 1: Thunder minus-12 (6:30 p.m. Saturday)

Overview: Two of the NBA’s premier parlay busters square off in this I-35 series. They just tortured the betting public for different reasons this season. Despite never commanding much action, the Mavericks finished only a half-game behind the Warriors for the best against the spread record in the NBA at 45-36-1. Bettors backed Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook on a nightly basis as usual, but the Thunder’s superstar duo cost them more than ever. Oklahoma City went 37-44-1 against the spread, the worst among playoff teams. A large part of the blame for the Thunder not quite playing to expectations has fallen on coach Billy Donavan, who’s endured a difficult transition to the NBA. That’s a concern going up against Dallas coach Rick Carlisle, one of the most respected minds in the league. Carlisle has managed with particular effectiveness in the playoffs, where he’s 31-20-2 against the spread since taking over in Dallas.

Betting approach and pick: Like all season, there’s value on the Mavericks. Potentially look to bet them on the money line in game three as they’re poised to steal one victory before the Thunder advance.

No. 2 seed San Antonio Spurs vs. No. 7 seed Memphis Grizzlies

Series price: Spurs minus-10000; Grizzlies plus-2500

Game 1: Spurs minus-15 (5 p.m. Sunday)

Overview: Before winning their second title with LeBron James, the Miami Heat were a minus-20000 favorite over the Milwaukee Bucks in a first-round series they swept. That’s the only time in the last five years oddsmakers have favored a team heavier in a playoff series than this year’s Spurs. Hopelessness for the Grizzlies is partially a side effect of old age. The most devastating spate of injuries in the NBA has left Memphis forced to start four players aged 36 or older. And unlike the Spurs’ Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobli, the Grizzlies aren’t getting anything better than mediocre play out of Matt Barnes, Vince Carter and Chris Andersen. San Antonio is by contrast completely healthy, a benefit of the regimented rest schedule coach Gregg Popovich employs during the regular season.

Betting approach and pick: It’s hard to envision the Spurs laying less than 9 points in any game of this series, and they’re 25-18 against the spread in that role this season. San Antonio likely goes 3-1 against the spread and sweeps Memphis.

No. 1 seed Cleveland Cavaliers vs. No. 8 seed Detroit Pistons

Series price: Cavaliers plus-2500; Pistons plus-1100

Game 1: Cavaliers minus-11 (Noon Sunday)

Overview: By oddsmakers’ power ratings, and any other system for that matter, the Pistons are one of the best No. 8 seeds in the last several years. Detroit is 13th in schedule-adjusted efficiency rating, and 14th by simple rating system. There’s a reason this is the smallest price a LeBron James-led team has given in the first round of the playoffs since his first stint in Cleveland. The Pistons defeated the Cavaliers in three of four meetings this season — though the last game featured all substitutes as the teams rested their players on Wednesday — and also blew out Western Conference No. 1 seed Golden State. Since acquiring Tobias Harris at the trade deadline, Detroit has gone 17-11 straight-up and 15-12-1 against the spread. Cleveland is the only team other than Oklahoma City to enter the playoffs with a losing against the spread record, but the Cavaliers were similarly unreliable during last year’s regular season before visibly raising their play in the postseason.

Betting approach and pick: Cleveland has gotten 70 percent of the action in game one to push the spread up a point, and that’s too much. Detroit will prove a nuisance in this series, and might just claim a couple upsets.

No. 4 seed Atlanta Hawks vs. No. 5 seed Boston Celtics

Series price: Hawks minus-165; Celtics plus-145

Game 1: Hawks minus-5 (4 p.m. Saturday)

Overview: Rarely do teams enter the playoffs looking as similar as the Hawks and the Celtics. They share the same records both straight-up, 48-34, and against the spread, 42-39-1. Atlanta rates seventh in the NBA in schedule-adjusted efficiency rating. Boston sits eighth. Earning favorite status came down to which team scored home-court advantage. That was the Hawks through beating the Celtics in three of four meetings during the regular season, and also going 3-1 against the spread in the series. These teams’ styles of play aren’t drastically different either. They make up for average offenses with suffocating defenses. Atlanta finished the season second in defensive efficiency, with 44 of its 82 games going under the total. Boston wound up fourth by the same metric, going under in 43 games.

Betting approach and pick: This matchup is so tight that the team taking points is going to merit consideration every game. Going off that line of thinking, let’s call for Boston to become the first team in two years to win a game 7 on the road.

No. 3 seed Miami Heat vs. No. 6 seed Charlotte Hornets

Series price: Heat minus-150; Hornets plus-130

Game 1: Heat minus-4.5 (2:30 p.m. Sunday)

Overview: Early money tags Charlotte as the team best positioned to pull a first-round upset. Miami opened as a minus-170 favorite, but has trended steadily downwards. It’s somewhat of a surprise given all the praise Miami has garnered over the second half of the season. Bolstered by the signing of Joe Johnson, the Heat have gone 19-10 straight-up, 17-12 against the spread since the All-Star Break. But the Hornets are the only Eastern Conference team to win more games down the stretch. Capitalizing on an advantageous second-half schedule, they went 21-8 straight-up but only 15-14 against the spread. Charlotte is the biggest Eastern Conference playoff crasher, having beaten its preseason win total of 34 games by 14 victories. The Hornets did it largely by going from dead last in the NBA in 2015 to seventh this year in 3-point percentage with Kemba Walker, Nicolas Batum and Marvin Williams each averaging two per game.

Betting approach and pick: Going against the sharp action here. Charlotte is the better story, but Miami is the better team. Even if it takes seven games, the Heat should survive.

No. 2 seed Toronto Raptors vs. No. 7 seed Indiana Pacers

Series price: Raptors minus-400; Pacers plus-320

Game 1: Raptors minus-6.5 (9:30 a.m. Saturday)

Overview: For the second time in three years, the Raptors emerged as the most profitable bet in the Eastern Conference during the regular season. They’re now looking to distance themselves from their past. Previous failures will be the narrative, as Toronto has flamed out of the playoffs in the first round despite home-court advantage in each of the last two years and only ever won a single playoff series in franchise history. But this is the best team they’ve put on the court, with Kyle Lowry leading them to seven more victories than ever before. Toronto is fifth in the NBA in offensive efficiency. Indiana is capable of slowing Toronto, though, with a defense that ranks third in the league.

Betting approach and pick: Toronto could become the Villanova of the NBA Playoffs. Everyone expected Villanova to choke before this year’s NCAA Tournament, which created a buy-low situation for the Wildcats before they won the title. That’s not to say a championship is in Toronto’s future, but the Raptors will hold value. Bet on the Raptors every step of the way, including this series where they should win in five.

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.