Las Vegas Sun

March 19, 2024

5 college football teams to buy low, bet on at sports books this season

Finding a team poised for profitability in each Power Five conference

Kevin Sumlin

ASSOCIATED PRESS

Texas A&M head coach Kevin Sumlin watches the action in the first half of the Music City Bowl NCAA college football game against Louisville Wednesday, Dec. 30, 2015, in Nashville, Tenn.

Even in Las Vegas, eyes are glued to the top of the college football world going into the season.

Common sports book conversations include whether Alabama deserves its status as the national championship favorite because of its consistency. Or should Clemson nudge ahead on the odds sheets because of its offensive firepower? Can LSU and Florida State find quarterbacks to go with what might be the two most talented rosters? Will Oklahoma break its trend for underachieving when ranked highly in the preseason?

Those are all important topics that will play a large role in defining the season, which begins in earnest this weekend. But those teams won’t be the most profitable to gamblers on a game-to-game basis.

Their level of success and scrutiny means value will be hard to find at the betting window. The true moneymaking opportunities come through buying low on teams on their way up that are poised to surpass expectations.

Washington State finished with the best against the spread record in the nation last season, followed closely by Bowling Green, Southern Miss and Stanford. No one was talking about any of those teams at this time last year — even Stanford was 60-to-1 to win the College Football Playoff.

What unexpected programs could take a leap and create a windfall for bettors in 2016? That’s what we’re here to figure out.

Check below for Talking Points’ picks for five buy-low, bet-on teams going into the college football season — one selection from each major conference.

Texas A&M

Embarrassments may have outnumbered practices at Texas A&M this offseason. The Aggies lost two blue-chip quarterbacks to transfer, saw an assistant bash local product Tate Martell for his decommitment and suspended two other coaches for making sexist comments at a public event for women.

And that’s just the short list. With so much negativity enveloping the program, it’s difficult for most to see the positivity of what Texas A&M will put on the field.

Once praised, now maligned head coach Kevin Sumlin has more experienced talent on this year’s roster than ever before. A receiving corps of Christian Kirk, Josh Reynolds, Ricky Seals-Jones and Speedy Noil is one of the best in the nation.

Likewise, few if any defensive end tandems can match Myles Garrett and Daeshon Hall, which combined for 19.5 sacks last season. Three of four starters also return in the defensive secondary, which gave up only 6.1 yards per pass attempt last year.

Texas A&M took a significant leap on defense in its first year under proven coordinator John Chavis, and the returns this season will be even higher.

As long as Oklahoma transfer Trevor Knight is serviceable at quarterback, Texas A&M will finish in the top half of the SEC West division for the first time since Johnny Manziel won the Heisman Trophy.

Nebraska

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Nebraska quarterback Tommy Armstrong Jr. (4) celebrates with wide receiver Jordan Westerkamp, right, following an NCAA college football game against Michigan State in Lincoln, Neb., Saturday, Nov. 7, 2015. Nebraska won 39-38.

The Cornhuskers were one of the best 5-7 regular season teams in college football history last year.

Nebraska’s Pythagorean expectation was closer to 8-4. It just kept finding circus-like ways to end games — starting with a Hail Mary against BYU in Week 1 and concluding with outgaining Iowa by nearly 200 yards but having a minus-3 turnover margin in the final week.

Those types of breaks don’t tend to keep going against teams for prolonged periods of time. With all that Nebraska has coming back this season, it’s likely the Cornhuskers won’t even be in that many close games to blow.

They’re the class of a relatively feeble Big Ten West division, even though the odds have them behind Iowa at a price of 2-to-1.

Four-year starting quarterback Tommy Armstrong might be the captain of the national “how does he still have eligibility?” squad with a couple of teammates at the skill positions alongside him. Armstrong’s top four targets from last year — Jordan Westerkamp, Brandon Reilly, Alonzo Moore and Cethan Carter — all return for their senior seasons as well as leading rusher Terrell Newby.

The hiring of coach Mike Riley from last year is still widely graded as a fail, even though he has a track record of overachieving. In 14 seasons at Oregon State, Riley went 87-77-1 against the spread.

Iowa State

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Iowa State running back Mike Warren (2) runs from TCU defensive end Josh Carraway (94) during the first half of an NCAA college football game, Saturday, Oct. 17, 2015, in Ames, Iowa. TCU won 45-21.

Both the aforementioned Big 12 ex-compatriots rank squarely in college football’s mid-tier. The actual Big 12 can help fulfill an obligation to look beyond that grouping, and dip into the perceived dregs.

Iowa State certainly qualifies, as it carries a minuscule over/under win total of 3.5 games at sports books and would need its most successful season in four years to get there. Here’s a prediction that the Cyclones reach at least five victories in new coach Matt Campbell’s first season.

Like Nebraska, Iowa State was victimized by bad luck last season and returns a core capable of changing fortunes. The Cyclones had a minus-12 turnover margin, worst in the Big 12 and 12th worst in the nation, and went 0-3 in games decided by a single possession.

Campbell wants to implement a lower variance style, controlling the clock with a run game to keep the conference’s high-powered offenses off the field while playing stingy defense. The former Toledo coach has the pieces to put it into effect immediately.

Sophomore running back Mike Warren was a revelation in his freshman season last year, rushing for nearly 6 yards per carry. The 2015 defense was mediocre, but most of its best parts — including four of the team’s top five tacklers — are back.

Iowa State projects as a favorite only once in Big 12 play — against disaster-piece Kansas — but it’s built to surprise with a couple upsets.

Arizona State

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Arizona State defensive back Armand Perry (13) during the second half of the NCAA college football game against Stanford, Saturday, Oct. 18, 2014, in Tempe, Ariz.

Just because the names are unfamiliar, it doesn’t mean they’re unsuited.

The Sun Devils are seemingly entering a rebuilding year after graduating a gaggle of key contributors from the last few seasons in 2015. But one of the surest ways to avoid a hard fall in college football is bringing in a strong class of junior college prospects, and that’s exactly what Arizona State coach Todd Graham has done.

He’s also recruited consistently well, never falling outside of the Pac-12’s top five in 247sports.com’s composite rankings since coming to Tempe, Ariz., to minimize the year-to-year talent decline. Among the players who will take the Sun Devils into a new era are local native Armand Perry, a sophomore safety who missed last season to injury, and whoever wins the quarterback battle between highly touted underclassmen Brady White and Manny Wilkins.

The Sun Devils felt like a team in need of a reset anyway. They got a ton of plaudits going into last season because of a 10-3 season in 2014 where a lot broke their way.

Arizona State failed to cover in its first four games and never came close to meeting expectations last year, leaving many to feel spurned and creating a post-hype buy-low opportunity. An over/under win total of five victories feels hard to believe considering Graham has never gone lower than that — only once hitting five exactly while at Tulsa — in a 10-year coaching career.

Virginia Tech

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Virginia Tech's Bucky Hodges (7) makes a touchdown catch during Saturday's game against Duke's Jeremy Cash (16) at Lane Stadium in Blacksburg, Va.

There haven’t been many worse teams to bet on over the last five years than Virginia Tech.

The Hokies went 24-41-1 against the spread as legendary, now-retired coach Frank Beamer began his decline. The infrastructure is still there, however, for Virginia Tech to get back to Beamer’s odds-smashing heyday.

The Hokies play in perhaps the nation’s most unspectacular division, the ACC Coastal, with a decided home field advantage at Lane Stadium and a consistently stingy defense under coordinator Bud Foster.

They just need an offense after amazingly finishing outside of the nation’s top 100 in yards per play for three straight seasons. It looks like they hired the right guy to bring it.

When new coach Justin Fuente arrived at Memphis in 2012, the program was coming off a season where it fielded one of the four most inefficient offenses in the nation. Three years later, Memphis ranked in the nation’s top 30 in gaining 6 yards per play.

Fuente took the Tigers from two victories to 10 victories in three years. He’s got much more to work with in Blacksburg, Va.

The nation’s top-rated junior college quarterback, Jerod Evans, will start for the Hokies with last year’s top three receivers — Isaiah Ford, Cam Phillips and Bucky Hodges — and top two running backs — Travon McMillian and Sam Rogers — surrounding him.

The consensus that it will take Fuente a couple years to get Virginia Tech back near the top of the ACC might be wrong. It could happen this year.

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.

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