Bowl Pick’em Against the Spread: Part 1

By Case Keefer (contact)

Saturday, Dec. 17, 2016 | 2 a.m.

Football bettors, rejoice. ‘Tis the season to gamble.

Today’s the advent of the best wagering stretch of the season. There will be at least one game on betting boards for the next 17 days straight.

All but three of them — the three Sundays — will have a bowl offering. Talking Points wants to help boost merry little bankrolls into a sleigh of winning tickets.

Bowl season has been the blog’s specialty in the past, having gone 119-98-3 picking every postseason game over the last six years. That sounds better than this regular season after finishing a disappointing 92-92-6 picking the biggest games each week.

Check below for our first installment of the bowl pick’em series, and come back over the next three weeks for analysis on every game.

Gildan New Mexico Bowl: UTSA plus-8 vs. New Mexico; over/under: 58.5

11 a.m. Saturday, University Stadium in Albuquerque on ESPN

The Lobos won two more games during the regular season, but they weren’t any more impressive than the Roadrunners considering the Mountain West Conference was even weaker than Conference USA. The teams actually have a common opponent, as they both played at Colorado State. UTSA lost by 9 points; New Mexico lost by 18 points. UTSA has a far better defense, including a strong front seven to potentially slow New Mexico’s rushing attack.

Pick: UTSA plus-8

Las Vegas Bowl: Houston minus-4 vs. San Diego State, over/under: 51.5

12:30 p.m. Saturday, Sam Boyd Stadium in Las Vegas on ABC

All the money has flown in on Houston, pushing this spread as high as 4.5 points after it opened at a field goal. It’s no surprise considering the Cougars are far more talented and explosive at their best. The problem is, they’ve been inconsistent. San Diego State has posted a few stinkers too — though its against-the-spread record is two games better than Houston’s — but it seems more guaranteed to stick to its brand of tough defense and a suffocating rushing attack. Houston was smart to rectify its coaching situation and promote offensive coordinator Major Applewhite, a move that should ensure a focused bowl performance.

Pick: Houston minus-4

Raycom Media Camellia Bowl: Appalachian State pick’em vs. Toledo, over/under: 60.5

2:30 p.m. Saturday, Cramton Bowl in Montgomery, Ala., on ESPN

This might be the closest matchup of the entire bowl season. Both teams have 9-3 records, with Toledo posting a plus-163 point differential to Appalachian State’s plus-145. The Rockets have the much better offense, outgaining the Mountaineers 7.2 yards per play to 6.2 yards per play. The Mountaineers have the much better defense, limiting opponents to 4.9 yards per play to the Rockets’ 5.9 yards per play. It could go either way.

Pick: Appalachian State

AutoNation Cure Bowl: Central Florida minus-6.5 vs. Arkansas State, over/under: 50.5

2:30 p.m. Saturday, Camping World Stadium in Orlando, Fla., on ESPN

Arkansas State really came on over the final two-thirds of the season, going 7-1 straight-up and 6-2 against the spread once sophomore quarterback Justice Hansen got comfortable. Oddsmakers’ power ratings are still weighing down the Red Wolves for their winless first four games, but they’re a different team now. Even though UCF is playing at home, it hasn’t beaten a single bowl-eligible team this season.

Pick: Arkansas State plus-6

R+L Carriers New Orleans Bowl: Southern Miss minus-5.5 vs. Louisiana-Lafayette, over/under: 58

6 p.m. Saturday, Mercedes-Benz Superdome in New Orleans on ESPN

This spread is deflated because of what happened over the last month of the regular season. Southern Miss went 1-3 straight-up and against the spread, while Louisiana-Lafayette was 4-0 straight-up and 3-1 against the spread. The Golden Eagles were among the most beaten-up teams in the nation, though, and their three-week break before the bowl game should pay major dividends.

Pick: Southern Miss minus-5.5

Miami Beach Bowl: Central Michigan plus-13 vs. Tulsa, over/under: 70

11:30 a.m. Monday, Marlins Park in Miami on ESPN

The intrigue in this game comes down Tulsa trying to become the first team ever to produce a 3,000 yard passer (Dane Evans), two 1,000 yard rushers (James Flanders and D’Angelo Brewer) and two 1,000 yard receivers (Keenan Lewis and Josh Atkinson) all in the same season. Atkinson needs 73 yards. The fact that the Golden Hurricane are in that position alone illustrates how much better they are than the Chippewas. But it’s almost never a wise investment to lay double digits in a bowl game.

Pick: Central Michigan plus-13

Boca Raton Bowl: Memphis plus-5.5 vs. Western Kentucky, over/under: 79.5

4 p.m. Tuesday, FAU Football Stadium in Boca Raton, Fla. on ESPN

Western Kentucky coach Jeff Brohm bolted for Purdue immediately after winning a second straight Conference USA Championship, leaving defensive coordinator Nick Holt as the interim coach for this game. There’s nothing better than betting against interim coaches during bowl season, as Memphis became the umpteenth team to show last season. The Tigers lost 31-10 to Auburn as 3-point underdogs in the Birmingham Bowl before the arrival of Mike Norvell, who has his team playing their best at the end of this season.

Pick: Memphis plus-5.5

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.