Bowl Pick’em Against The Spread: Part 3

By Case Keefer (contact)

Tuesday, Dec. 27, 2016 | 2 a.m.

The easiest cover of bowl season so far came from the team that was supposed to have the hardest matchup.

Idaho closed a 16-point underdog — it opened at plus-13 — last Thursday in the Famous Idaho Potato Bowl against Colorado State but never trailed in a 61-50 victory. The Vandals, which might want to rethink their move down to the Football Championship Subdivision level in 2018, built a 48-14 lead before giving up a load of points late in the game.

The only team getting nearly as many points as Idaho the rest of bowl season is Washington, which is currently taking 14.5 from Alabama in the Chick Fil-A Peach Bowl Saturday. But there’s a long way to go before reaching that national semifinal game.

Talking Points missed on Idaho, but has otherwise done well during bowl season. The blog stands at 11-5 against the spread picking every game.

Read below for analysis and picks on all of the next three days’ worth of games.

Zaxby’s Heart of Dallas Bowl: Army minus-10 vs. North Texas, over/under: 48.5

9 a.m. Tuesday, Cotton Bowl in Dallas on ESPN

It’s easier to find reasons to bet against teams in this game. Army already won its de facto Super Bowl by beating Navy 21-17 three weeks ago. But North Texas is, without exaggeration, one of the worst teams to ever reach a bowl game after its academic progress rate enabled them to reach the postseason despite a 5-7 record. The Mean Green’s 35-17 victory over the Black Knights should be thrown out, because Army committed seven turnovers. That won’t happen again.

Pick: Army minus-10

Military Bowl: Temple minus-12.5 vs. Wake Forest, over/under: 41

12:30 p.m. Tuesday, Navy Marine-Corps Memorial Stadium in Annapolis, Md. on ESPN

The Owls are the betting team of the year after covering in 12 straight, but the double-digit spreads they covered were against an ugly bunch of teams — Charlotte, Tulane and East Carolina, for example. Wake Forest is a step up from that group. And part of Temple’s prowess was coach Matt Rhule, who’s now moved on to Baylor. Laying big spreads with interim coaches is never advisable.

Pick: Wake Forest plus-12.5

National Funding Holiday Bowl: Minnesota plus-10.5 vs. Washington State, over/under: 60.5

4 p.m. Tuesday, Qualcomm Stadium in San Diego on ESPN

Sure, Minnesota’s boycott for suspended teammates accused of sexual assault might have disrupted some preparation and worked as a distraction. But is it worth four points on the betting line? That’s how much this line has moved since the two-day delay before the university caved to the players’ demands.

Pick: Minnesota plus-10.5

Motel 6 Cactus Bowl: Boise State minus-7.5 vs. Baylor, over/under: 67.5

7:15 p.m. Tuesday, Chase Field in Phoenix on ESPN

The last time Baylor won a game, Donald Trump was a 5-to-1 underdog to win the presidency and Nebraska was ranked as one of the nation’s top eight teams. The Bears finished the season 0-6 straight-up, 1-5 against the spread, and it’s hard to believe that Rhule poking his head around during practices will be enough to change their trajectory as the season concludes.

Pick: Boise State minus-7.5

New Era Pinstripe Bowl: Pittsburgh minus-6 vs. Northwestern, over/under: 65.5

11 a.m. Wednesday, Yankee Stadium in New York on ESPN

Who would have ever thought a team coached by Pat Narduzzi, long one of college football’s best defensive coordinators, would be great on offense and mediocre on defense? By the end of the year, as sophomore quarterback Clayton Thorson continued to develop, typically defense-centric Northwestern was the more balanced team.

Pick: Northwestern plus-6

Russell Athletic Bowl: West Virginia plus-2.5 vs. Miami, over/under: 57

2:30 p.m. Wednesday, Camping World Stadium in Orlando, Fla. on ESPN

It’s comical that West Virginia enters this game as the ranked team at No. 16 in the nation, while Miami barely qualifies in the “others receiving votes” category. The Hurricanes are better in every area. Whereas Miami went an unlucky 0-3 in games decided by seven points or less on the season, West Virginia was 4-0.

Pick: Miami minus-2.5

Foster Farms Bowl: Indiana plus-7.5 vs. Utah, over/under: 54.5

5:30 p.m. Wednesday, Levi’s Stadium in San Francisco on Fox

This is one of the harder bowls to handicap so far, but the half-point should go a long way in informing the decision. Utah has gashed the opponents it’s beaten with its running game featuring senior running back Joe Williams, who went from retired to NFL Draft prospect this season. But Indiana has stood strong against the run all year, ranking in the nation’s top 20 in giving up 3.6 yards per rushing attempt.

Pick: Indiana plus-7.5

Advocare V1000 Texas Bowl: Texas A&M minus-2.5 vs. Kansas State, over/under: 57.5

6 p.m. Wednesday, NRG Stadium in Houston on ESPN

No team lately has been worse to bet on than Texas A&M, which lost its final eight games against the spread. But a month-long break could help the Aggies to regroup because they undoubtedly have the stronger personnel, including potential top NFL Draft pick Myles Garrett at defensive end. Bowl games are one area where Wildcats coach Bill Snyder hasn’t soared by betting standards, as he’s 1-5 against the spread since retaking the Kansas State job.

Pick: Texas A&M minus-2.5

Birmingham Bowl: South Florida minus-10 vs. South Carolina, over/under: 62.5

11 a.m. Thursday, Legion Field in Birmingham, Ala. on ESPN

Freshman quarterback Jake Bentley supposedly changed the fortunes of South Carolina’s offense. It didn’t look like it in the Gamecocks’ last two games against Football Bowl Subdivision opponents when they lost a combined 76-14 against Florida and Clemson. South Carolina is in the nation’s bottom 10 on the year in gaining only 4.6 yards per play against FBS teams. That’s not the profile of an underdog that should be receiving the bulk of the action in the betting market.

Pick: South Florida minus-10

Belk Bowl: Arkansas plus-7 vs. Virginia Tech, over/under: 61.5

11:30 p.m. Thursday, Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte on ESPN

Let’s make the turn from a publicly backed underdog with a terrible offense to a publicly backed underdog with a terrible defense. Arkansas surrendered 6.8 yards per play on the year, fifth worst in the country. The Razorbacks do have an explosive offense, and might be the right side if the spread gets back to 7.5. But, in the meantime with the point spread dead accurate, it’s preferable to side with the more well-rounded team.

Pick: Virginia Tech minus-7

Valero Alamo Bowl: Oklahoma State plus-3 vs. Colorado, over/under: 62.5

6 p.m. Thursday, Alamodome in San Antonio on ESPN

Oklahoma State’s James Washington might be the best receiver in the nation that no one talks about. Colorado’s Ahkello Witherspoon might be the best cornerback in the nation that no one talks about. Let’s reiterate: This is a must-watch matchup — even if there’s no real betting appeal with a tight number.

Pick: Oklahoma State plus-3

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.