Super Bowl 50 props: Picking 10 winners off the betting board

By Case Keefer (contact)

Wednesday, Feb. 3, 2016 | 2 a.m.

The thing that makes the Super Bowl so entertaining for sports bettors is also what makes it so profitable for sports books.

Gamblers love proposition wagers because they provide hundreds, if not thousands, of ways to bet on the biggest game of the year. Bookmakers love proposition wagers because many of them have a high hold percentage to increase the house’s advantage.

That’s not to say it’s a hopeless endeavor to try to profit on the props. You just have to know where to look.

Talking Points will do its best to lend assistance. After poring over the offerings at the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook, William Hill sports books and Station Casinos, the blog has come up with 10 favorite prop bets spanning a variety of styles for Super Bowl 50.

Read them below. Odds are the standard minus-110 (risking $1.10 to win $1) unless otherwise noted.

Shortest Gross Punt by Brad Nortman: Under 34.5 yards

Carolina’s punter has at least one punt less than this total in four straight games. Because of how little attention is paid to special teams, the Panthers’ biggest weakness has gone mostly undetected. Nortman is averaging just 38.4 yards per punt in the postseason, and ranked 28th in the NFL during the regular season with only 20 punts inside the 20-yard line.

Cam Newton plus-18.5 rushing yards vs. C.J. Anderson

Newton could best threaten the Broncos, which haven’t seen a quarterback as dynamic as him all season, with his rushing ability. Even a conservative estimation of Newton hitting his season average of 38 yards on the ground means Anderson would have to reach 57 yards. Denver’s starting running back is only averaging 50 yards per game this season despite encountering only one rushing defense, Pittsburgh, rated ahead of Carolina’s in Football Outsiders’ DVOA ratings.

Will there be a successful 2-point conversion: No at minus-350

The “yes” has been the most popularly bet prop at William Hill sports books, which has forced the shop to offer a discounted price on the “no.” Almost every other sports book is offering minus-400 on the “no.” This line implies a 24 percent chance that one of the two teams pulls off a 2-point conversion. Considering the Broncos and Panthers only combined to attempt one two-point conversion all year, the price is a steal.

Total sacks by Panthers’ defense: Under 2.5

Peyton Manning is the greatest quarterback of all time — at not getting sacked. He’s the NFL’s career record-holder with an infinitesimal 3.13 sack rate. Say what you will about the 39-year-old’s declining skills, but he remains masterful at not surrendering unnecessary losses.

Luke Kuechly total tackles: Under 9.5 at plus-105

If you’ve read this column in past years, you know it’s an annual strategy to go against the highest-profile defensive player’s tackle total in the Super Bowl. There’s no reason to change now after it's cashed in four of the past five years, not even with a monster like Kuechly. He’s the best linebacker in the NFL but has only gotten over 9.5 tackles in five of 15 games this season. Most sports books have Kuechly’s total at a more problematic 8.5, but it’s bloated by an extra tackle at William Hill.

Danny Trevathan total tackles: Over 6.5 at minus-130

Let’s buck tradition, and go with an “over” on tackles too. The Panthers called the highest percentage of rushing plays in the NFL this season. Trevathan is the predominant run-stuffer on the Broncos’ defense. On a defense full of stars, the fourth-year veteran out of Kentucky has gotten overshadowed despite leading the team with 7 tackles per game.

Emmanuel Sanders total receptions: Over 5

Carolina is relatively vulnerable against No. 2 receivers, ranking 12th in the league per DVOA. The Panthers have lost two cornerbacks in the last month and a half, Bene Benwikere and Charles Tillman, so the duty to cover Sanders will mostly fall to Cortland Finnegan, who was retired until late November. If Denver’s lackluster offense has any chance to move the ball, Sanders is its best option.

UNLV points against Fresno State on Saturday plus-1.5 vs. Demaryius Thomas receiving yards

Thomas will find it much harder to create separation from Panthers shutdown cornerback Josh Norman. Station Casinos put this local twist on the cross-sports prop, and may have favored the wrong side. Thomas’ over/under receiving yards is 69.5. UNLV managed to score 66 points against Fresno State in the teams’ first meetings despite going 16-for-48 from the field.

Demarcus Cousins minus-6.5 points-plus-rebounds against Celtics vs. Owen Daniels receiving yards

I’m looking for ways to fade Daniels, whose numbers figure to be a tad inflated coming off a two-touchdown game in the AFC Championship Game. The Panthers are also stout against tight ends because of their linebackers’ coverage abilities. Cousins is as sure of a bet as exists in the NBA to get 25 points and 10 rebounds per game, setting a high bar for the sparsely used Daniels to reach.

Total Points Scored: 29-35 at 8-to-1

It’s not a profitable strategy to attack these high-hold multiway props, but it’s practically an obligation to take one gamble with a high payout. All the final scores that I favor the most — 17-14, 17-13, 20-14, etc. — fall in this convenient range posted at William Hill.

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.