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March 18, 2024

Super Bowl by the odds: Vegas pick and perspective on Panthers vs. Broncos

Cam Newton

Charlie Riedel / AP

Carolina Panthers quarterback Cam Newton listens to a question during opening night of Super Bowl 50 week Monday, Feb. 1, 2016, in San Jose, Calif.

Super Bowl 50

Which side are you taking in Super Bowl 50?
Broncos plus-6 — 55.9%
Panthers minus-6 — 44.1%

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Prop Bets Posted at Westgate

Super Bowl odds are displayed at the Westgate Super Book Thursday, Jan. 28, 2016. Launch slideshow »

Nothing is more devastating than a Super Bowl loss, and that truism extends beyond the players and coaches involved in the game.

Sports bettors feel the same. More than 200 days will separate Sunday’s Super Bowl 50, which kicks off at 3:30 in Santa Clara, Calif., from the start of the next football season when gamblers can re-acquaint with the most popularly bet-on sport.

That leaves a long time to linger, meaning losing money on the Super Bowl can sour even the most profitable of football seasons. Talking Points had a pretty solid one.

After cashing on both conference championship games, I’m 139-118-9 picking every NFL game against the spread this season. But it will feel a bit hollow without one final victory.

Read below for the final NFL betting preview and pick of the year.

The line: Panthers minus-5.5. This exhibits the potential to put sports books in their classic Super Bowl situation: Rooting for the underdog to cover the spread, but the favorite to win straight-up. The first part of the equation, bookmakers needing the Broncos to beat the odds, looks set in stone already. More money, and significantly more tickets, will be on Carolina at kickoff. The Panthers already have a Michael Oher-sized advantage in those categories. They opened as low as 4-point favorites over the Broncos after the conference championship games two weekends ago, and sped with Ted Ginn Jr.-like quickness up to a consensus minus-6 a couple days later. Some prospective Denver backers postulated Carolina would go up to a 6.5- or 7-point favorite, and decided to wait in hopes of buying that price on the Broncos. That never materialized, as even the plus-6 lines have vanished from the Las Vegas landscape.

The buyback has begun on the Broncos. It’s been especially strong on the moneyline at MGM Resorts, according to Vice President of Race and Sports Jay Rood, which has led him to believe he’ll be rooting against the Broncos winning their third Super Bowl. Current prices on the Broncos to win straight-up range from plus-180 (risking $1 to win $1.80) to plus-200. The Panthers come back anywhere between minus-210 (risking $2.10 to win $1) and minus-240. Historically, underdogs have gone 20-27-2 against the spread in Super Bowl history with 14 straight-up wins. But the last four underdogs that have covered — Seahawks in 2014, Ravens in 2013, Giants in 2012 and Saints in 2010 — also won outright.

If sports book indeed wind up in rooting for the favorite-to-win/underdog-to-cover scenario, it will be the first time in three years. The spreads were so tight in Super Bowl 48 and 49 that it didn’t come into play.

The matchup: Former Super Bowl quarterback Colin Kaepernick already lost his starting job with the 49ers earlier this season. Now he’s relinquishing his unofficial Las Vegas record. There’s no way the UNR graduate will stand as the most gambled-on individual player in Super Bowl history after Sunday. That’s Carolina quarterback Cam Newton’s claim now.

Like Kaepernick, Newton is prop-betting gold because of his ability to both run and throw. Only this year’s likely NFL MVP is both more polarizing and essential. The Westgate Las Vegas Superbook posted 41 different ways to wager on Newton’s performance against the Broncos. Most of the major lines have moved in his direction. Newton’s over/under passing yards, for example, opened at 232.5 and sprung up to 235.5. His rushing yards total went from 39.5 to 41.5.

It only makes sense that the market is calling for a huge game from Newton. As noted above, the Panthers are the betting public’s side. And if the Panthers are to reward that support, it’s going to be because of Newton.

In Carolina’s offense, Newton is like a cutting-edge engine stuck in the body of an otherwise unspectacular vehicle. The former Heisman Trophy and national champion at Auburn took what looked like a mediocre-at-best offense and revved it to near-greatness. The Panthers lead the league in scoring at 31.3 points per game, but weren’t as highly rated from an efficiency standpoint. They rate 10th in the league at gaining 5.6 yards per play and eighth in Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric.

Tackles Oher and Michael Remmers are a relative weakness, leaving the offensive line a pedestrian 21st in adjusted sack rate. Carolina ballooned up to 60-to-1 to win the Super Bowl in the preseason — if it wins, Carolina will join 2001 New England as the longest-shot champions in 20 years — because of concerns in the receiving corps. The Panthers lost Kelvin Benjamin to a torn ACL, leaving them with a weak top three receivers of Ginn, Philly Brown and Jerricho Cotchery that Newton has somehow rendered serviceable. Running back Jonathan Stewart has only ranked in the NFL’s top 10 in yards per carry once in his eight-year career. Tight end Greg Olsen is the only high-end accessory surrounding Newton. Olsen, who leads the team with 77 catches for 1,104 yards, could cause a matchup issue for the Broncos, which cover tight ends poorer than any other position per DVOA.

But it’s ultimately coming down to Newton and if Denver can contain him. Only two qualified quarterbacks were more efficient than Newton rushing this season, Buffalo’s Tyrod Taylor and Seattle’s Russell Wilson, and the Broncos didn’t encounter either. The closest defensive coordinator Wade Phillips' unit came was seeing Kansas City and deceptively mobile Alex Smith twice. The Chiefs run some similar zone-read/option attacks to Panthers’ offensive coordinator Mike Shula’s go-to packages. Denver’s performance wasn’t exactly encouraging in those contests. They finished the year with a minus-9 scoring differential against the Chiefs, needing a week 2 overtime win to salvage a 1-1 straight-up and against the spread record. Kansas City gained 5 yards per play in the contests — .5 more than Denver gave up on average for the season.

Surrendering only 4.5 yards per play is a monumental achievement. Newton will be the best player on the field, but Denver’s defense is far and away the top unit. Only three defenses better than the Broncos have reached the Super Bowl in the last 28 yards, according to DVOA. All three won outright. The way edge rushers DeMarcus Ware and Von Miller pressured Tom Brady while cover corners Aqib Talib and Chris Harris shut down his receivers en route a 20-18 upset victory in the AFC Championship Game was no one-off. As Broncos quarterback Peyoton Manning has repeatedly attested, the defense is the reason he’s getting a chance to win a Super Bowl in the likely last game of his career.

It’s certainly not because of the offense. Denver rates 25th in offensive DVOA and that’s boosted because of Brock Osweiler, who was more effective than Manning, starting half of the year. Manning’s 6.8 yards per pass attempt is his lowest total since his rookie season in 1998. Since returning from a foot injury that kept him out for two months, however, Manning hasn’t recorded a giveaway. Keeping that streak will prove integral against Carolina, which has outperformed its statistical expectation to go 17-1 straight-up mostly because of an NFL-best plus-20 turnover margin. One of the NFL’s best linebacker duos, Luke Kuechly and Thomas Davis, are a big reason for the success with the two as likely to disrupt passing lanes as stuff plays at the line of scrimmage and in the open field.

The matchup between Denver’s offense and Carolina’s defense will obviously play just as much of a factor in the outcome of the game, but each team’s premier units are poised to take the bulk of the credit. Denver is the 12th team ranked first in total defense to ever reach the Super Bowl, with its predecessors going 8-3 straight-up. Carolina is the 22nd team ranked first in total points to ever reach the Super Bowl, with its predecessors going 10-11 straight-up.

It’s possible the Super Bowl has never hosted a force as unique as Newton, though. Newton’s debut coincides with the Nevada Gaming Control Board allowing wagering on who will win the Super Bowl MVP for the first time. Currently favored at a minus-160 clip, Newton is seen as likely to win the award as his team is to win the game by the odds.

The pick: Broncos plus-5.5

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.

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