Las Vegas Sun

March 18, 2024

Vegas Play of the Day: Super Bowl 50

Ware

Joe Mahoney / AP

Denver Broncos outside linebacker DeMarcus Ware (94) celebrates his fumble recovery for the win after an NFL football game against the Cincinnati Bengals, Monday, Dec. 28, 2015, in Denver. The Broncos won 20-17 in overtime.

We've reset the Play of the Day with fresh bankrolls and turned it into a yearly competition. Our three sports writers have re-started with $10,000 bankrolls to continue using on odds from the South Point.

Carolina Panthers vs. Denver Broncos Under 45 points: $550 to win $500

This is the best defensive matchup we’ve had in the Super Bowl over the past decade, if not longer. I don’t see either defense faltering with the Lombardi Trophy on the line.

For the first time in four years, the Super Bowl should fall well under sports books’ point total. Not only are both defenses outstanding, but they match up well against each other.

The Panthers’ offensive line remains average at best, which isn’t a good sign against DeMarcus Ware and Von Miller. Cam Newton has gotten sacked too often throughout his five-year career, and now takes on one of the top pressure teams of the last five years.

Denver’s adjusted sack rate of 8.1 percent was the best in the NFL this season. All of the hype surrounding the Broncos’ defense has shrouded just how efficient Carolina has been on that side of the ball this season.

Denver’s preference is try to run the ball as much as possible. That won’t work out against a Panthers’ front seven that rates sixth against the run by Football Outsiders’ DVOA and has gotten progressively better as the season went on.

My biggest concern of the game going over is the defenses forcing turnovers and scoring themselves. But this line is at least 4 points too high, and it’s rare to find that kind of value through a traditional method in the Super Bowl.

Let’s go defense.

Current Standings (as of July 1): Brewer (33-31, $9,280), Bern (24-30, $7,455), Keefer (28-41-2, $4,802)

Lifetime standings: 2014-15 Champion Bern (104-103-1), Keefer (112-123-4), Brewer (102-118-2)

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.

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