Vegas Play of the Day: Kansas City Chiefs at Houston Texans

By Case Keefer (contact)

Saturday, Jan. 9, 2016 | 2:45 a.m.

We've reset the Play of the Day with fresh bankrolls and turned it into a yearly competition. Our three sports writers have re-started with $10,000 bankrolls to continue using on odds from the South Point.

Kansas City Chiefs at Houston Texans under 40 points: $440 to win $400

Kansas City hasn’t seen a defense as tough as Houston’s in two months. Houston hasn’t seen a defense as tough as Kansas City’s two months.

Put that together, and the 2016 NFL Playoffs should open with a particularly low-scoring affair.

Houston has the worst rushing attack of any team to make the playoffs, averaging 3.7 yards per rush attempt, but Kansas City gives up little through the air. The Chiefs are tied for third in the NFL in surrendering only 6.1 yards per pass attempt.

The Chiefs’ one major weakness on offense is pass protection as its offensive line rates 28th in the NFL in adjusted sack rate. That will be exacerbated against J.J. Watt, who should also help prevent Chiefs quarterback Alex Smith from finding room to scramble and adding to his career-high rushing totals from this season.

Those factors shape this game up to be an extremely close contest that will probably fall somewhere right around the 3-point spread. The second-most likely outcome is the Chiefs pulling away by shutting down the Texans’ offense in something like a 24-7 victory.

That still leaves some value on the under.

Current Standings (as of July 1):Brewer (30-26, $10,190), Bern (20-28, $6,435), Keefer (23-38-2, $4,161)

Lifetime standings: 2014-15 Bern (100-101-1), Brewer (99-114-2), Keefer (106-121-4)

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.