Vegas Play of the Day: UFC Fight Night 81

By Case Keefer (contact)

Sunday, Jan. 17, 2016 | 2 a.m.

We've reset the Play of the Day with fresh bankrolls and turned it into a yearly competition. Our three sports writers have re-started with $10,000 bankrolls to continue using on odds from the South Point.

T.J. Dillashaw minus-140 vs. Dominick Cruz: $700 to win $500

Every once in a while, emotion seeps into the betting market and creates opportunity. That might be what’s happening with the main event of UFC Fight Night 81.

Everyone is rooting for Dominick Cruz because of the hardships he’s endured over the last several years. The support has translated into betting dollars to keep the odds on this fight more depressed than warranted.

There’s no way a champion whose spent the last three years demolishing everything in his way — with the exception of a single disputed decision loss — should lay anything less than 2-to-1 against a fighter who’s spent all of 61 seconds in the cage during the same time frame. I’m as happy as everyone else for a fighter as talented as Cruz to be back, but that doesn’t mean he’s got a near 50/50 chance to unseat Dillashaw.

Cruz was an outstanding champion years ago, defending his belt five times by using intricate footwork and timely wrestling. Dillashaw does the same — only better.

And more viciously. Dillashaw is riding a streak of three straight knockout victories.

Cruz has never encountered someone equally capable of matching his pace and overpowering him. Over the course of 25 minutes, it’s inevitable that the advantage of a fighter who’s been fortunate to stay active will come into play.

Current Standings (as of July 1): Brewer (30-28, $9,420), Bern (20-30, $5,555), Keefer (26-39-2, $5,131)

Lifetime standings: 2014-15 Champion Bern (100-103-1), Keefer (109-122-4), Brewer (99-116-2)

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.