Vegas Play of the Day: Miesha Tate vs. Amanda Nunes at UFC 200

By Case Keefer (contact)

Saturday, July 9, 2016 | 2 a.m.

We’re entering the third season of the annual South Point-lined Play of the Day competition, effective July 1.

Starting bankrolls have reset to $10,000, with the maximum bet being to win $1,000 and the minimum wager $300. Ray Brewer won the 2015-2016 season, after Taylor Bern prevailed in 2014-2015.

Miesha Tate vs. Amanda Nunes will go 2 full rounds at minus-220: $660 to win $300

On the day of perhaps the most stacked card in UFC history, there’s no way I can waste my Play of the Day on anything else. Problem is, nothing really stands out at the sports books.

None of the lines anyway. They all look reasonable, and tightened after having weeks to marinate.

Propositions are where value can be found. This is admittedly a big price to lay, but I don’t think it’s big enough.

The line is implying, after adjusting for hold percentage, about a 2-in-3 chance that the women’s bantamweight championship main event gets at least to the third round. I think the true probability is a lot higher than that.

I’m not sure who’s going to win, but I know if anyone projects to get an early finish, it’s Nunes. That’s not going to be easy because Tate is nothing if not durable.

She’s also fought all of the best fighters in the division, and never seen one of her UFC bouts end earlier than the third round.

A finish in this fight wouldn’t stun me, but even then, I think it’s more likely to come in the later rounds when the fighters are worn down and more desperate. Backing a big favorite isn’t an issue if the number is right.

Current Standings: Current Standings: Keefer (3-0, $11,261), Bern (0-1, $9,600), Brewer (1-2, $9,430)

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.