Marcio Jose Sanchez / AP
Cleveland Cavaliers guard Kyrie Irving (2) shoots against Golden State Warriors guard Stephen Curry (30) and center Andrew Bogut during the first half of Game 5 of basketball’s NBA Finals in Oakland, Calif., Monday, June 13, 2016.
Thursday, June 16, 2016 | 2 a.m.
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Sports bettors have related to Stephen Curry and Kevin Love this NBA Finals because they’re all missing at an almost identical rate.
Through five games, Curry and Love have combined to shoot only 40 percent, the same lower-than-average frequency with which gamblers have cashed tickets. Bookmakers were happy to see Cleveland extend the series to a sixth game with a 112-97 upset win on the road Monday, and not just because it guaranteed at least one more night with heavy betting volume.
The public sided with Golden State by a lopsided ratio, making it three straight NBA Finals games where sports books posted a significant profit on the point spread. The Warriors’ Game 2 blowout was the only bad result for casinos so far, as the action was close to even on both sides ahead of Game 1.
Tonight’s Game 6, which airs at 6 on ABC, looks like it will most resemble in Game 1 from a betting perspective. Early money has accounted for close to a dead split.
There was an immediate Cleveland bent with the point spread shooting up to favor the Cavaliers by 2.5 points, but almost every shop has wrenched back to the original minus-2 with buyback on the Warriors.
The fluctuation is no surprise, as strong and obvious arguments can be constructed for both sides. Draymond Green already has declared his belief the series would be over if not for his Game 5 suspension.
Although Green’s value on the spread was revealed as only a maximum of 2.5 points, there are other metrics suggesting he’s much more valuable.
In the Finals, the Warriors are outscoring the Cavaliers by 36 points when Green is on the floor. Cleveland, meanwhile, has a 22-point advantage when Green isn’t playing.
Although the teams split the first two games at Quicken Loans Arena, Cleveland has outscored Golden State by 19 points on its home court. The 11-point loss in Game 4 was the Cavaliers’ first postseason defeat at home, where it’s also 7-2 against the spread.
And no offensive player, not even teammate LeBron James, has been more valuable than Kyrie Irving, who’s now gone over his prop point total in four of five games. Irving over 25.5 points projects as a popular prop again in Game 6, but sports books shouldn’t mind.
They’ve found success when something close to a consensus forms during these NBA Finals.
Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.
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