NBA Finals in Las Vegas: Game 7 betting preview, odds and picks

By Case Keefer (contact)

Sunday, June 19, 2016 | 2 a.m.

Less than three weeks after completing one of the greatest comebacks in NBA Playoff history, the Golden State Warriors must avoid succumbing to an even bigger one.

The improbability of the Warriors blowing a 3-1 lead over the Cleveland Cavaliers in the NBA Finals squashes the unlikelihood of their own rally from a 3-1 deficit against the Oklahoma City Thunder last round. Golden State became the 10th team to overcome the hole all-time in the postseason; No team has ever done it in the finals.

The betting market continued to give the Warriors a 26 percent chance to win the series after they faced elimination with one more loss against the Thunder. The Cavaliers were a plus-1450 (risking $1 to win $14.50) underdog in the same position against the Warriors, implying only a 4.5 percent chance they would win the series.

They’re now all the way up to a 37 percent likelihood — and rising — after winning two straight games. Cleveland posted as high as a 5.5-point underdog ahead of game 7, which begins at 5 tonight on ABC, but has since gone down to minus-4.5.

The look-ahead game 7 line after Golden State went up 3-1 in the series was minus-6.5. The current odds are tied for the Warriors’s season-low point spread at home, as they laid 4.5 points to the Spurs in January before a 120-90 victory.

It’s slightly more than a typical home-court advantage, and after the last two weeks, the question is whether Golden State still deserves that adjustment. In totality, the series couldn’t have played out more evenly: The overall score is Warriors 610, Cavaliers 610.

The value of Golden State’s historic regular season — in which they won 16 more games than Cleveland and outscored opponents by nearly 5 points per game more — is suddenly up for debate with the team barely intact. After having already lost Andrew Bogut for the series, his replacement in the starting lineup, Andre Iguodala, is now visibly hobbled by back problems.

Regardless of the extent of Stephen Curry’s lingering knee issues, the series has shown why some were hesitant to declare him the best basketball player in the world despite consecutive NBA awards. LeBron James has another gear no one can match when it matters, which showed in the first back-to-back 40-point Finals games since Shaquille O’Neal 16 years ago.

James is likely to take the NBA Finals MVP regardless of which team wins tonight, as many thought he should have in last year’s defeat. He’s minus-225 (risking $2.25 to win $1) to win the honors, with Curry the next closest option at plus-260.

If James deserves anything, it’s to be absolved of the criticism that’s followed his past Finals failures. He’s still 2-4 in the championship series but has only lost one where his team was favored — in 2011, when the Heat fell to the Mavericks.

James made up for that the next year when the Heat upset the Thunder. A second title as an underdog would mean James has exceeded expectations in the Finals.

Pulling off the most improbable comeback not only in Finals, but playoff history would put that into clearer focus.

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.