Bookmakers flummoxed by Oregon earning No. 1 seed over Michigan State

By Case Keefer (contact)

Monday, March 14, 2016 | 2 a.m.

The first upset of the NCAA Tournament took place days before the games tipped off.

The tournament’s selection committee deemed the team leading most Las Vegas betting boards in odds to win the national championship over the last few weeks unworthy of a top seed.

Despite almost all projections indicating the contrary before the selection show, Oregon beat out Michigan State to join Kansas, North Carolina and Virginia as the No. 1 seeds.

“Michigan State not getting a No. 1 seed was screwy,” said Jay Rood, vice president of race and sports at MGM Resorts International. “They’ve been the clear-cut favorite for us the last few weeks, so I think they really missed the mark on that.”

After the reveal of the bracket, which placed Michigan State as the No. 2 seed in the Midwest Region behind Virginia, Rood adjusted to make the Spartans co-favorites with Kansas to win the tournament at odds of 4-to-1. The draw forced more drastic change at the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook.

Michigan State was knocked off the top of the future odds, now sitting at 5-to-1 tied in second with North Carolina behind Kansas at 9-to-2. The Jayhawks, the NCAA Tournament’s top overall seed, have won 14 straight including both the Big 12 regular season and tournament championships.

The Spartans have emerged victorious in nine straight, winning the Big Ten tournament after finishing two games behind Indiana in the regular season. They also defeated Kansas 79-73 as 4.5-point underdogs on a neutral court earlier in the year.

“Kansas would be a real tiny favorite over Michigan State,” Superbook Manager Ed Salmons said of a hypothetical matchup. “North Carolina and Virginia would be next and close, but there’s no way you can justify Michigan State not being a No. 1 seed.”

Michigan State would be at least a 3-point favorite over Oregon. The Ducks played their way into the first No. 1 seed in school history by winning their final eight games, including all three at the MGM Grand Garden Arena last weekend to win the Pac-12 tournament championship.

But in the semifinals of the tournament, they closed as a 1-point underdog to Arizona and the game played out as tight as the spread suggested. Oregon prevailed 95-89 in overtime, dooming Arizona to a No. 6 seed in the Kansas-topped South Region.

“How could you explain one team being a No. 1 seed and one being a No. 6 seed,” Salmons asked. “It’s just typical of what they do and according to what they said on TV, they don’t know what they do. Everyone on the committee just does their own thing.”

On the betting line, Oregon would come in as an underdog against every No. 2 seed except Xavier, bracketed in North Carolina’s East Region. But the Ducks would take points from another team in the East — No. 4 seed Kentucky.

“Kentucky has a more solid power rating than Oregon,” Rood said. “Oregon is just living off of recency. If you would have told me a week ago that Oregon was going to be a No. 1 seed, there’s no way I would have believed you.”

The Ducks are one of the most improbable No. 1 seeds in recent memory. They were listed at 100-to-1 to win the tournament throughout non-conference play at the Superbook, raising even higher elsewhere after a pair of losses to UNLV and Boise State in early December.

The Superbook now lists Oregon at 15-to-1 odds, equal with Kentucky to win the tournament. Virginia and Villanova, the No. 2 seed in the South, are 12-to-1.

West Region No. 4 seed Duke, currently 25-to-1, has been the most popular bet dating back to the beginning of the season at the Superbook. If the seeds hold to form, the reigning champion Blue Devils would emerge as the Ducks’ Sweet 16 opponent.

That could potentially create an uncommon scenario where the majority of the public betting action comes in against the No. 1 seed.

“They’ll bet Oregon in games where they’re the better team, a big favorite,” Salmons said. “But their support hasn’t been anything out of the ordinary.”

It’s a different story when it comes to the team the Ducks edged out for the No. 1 seed. MGM stands to lose money on its futures if the Spartans prove as capable as bookmakers believe.

“Michigan State is a team that we’re worried about,” Rood said. “They’ve been betting them all year, and there’s nothing we’ve been able to do about it. They’ve been a really popular pick consistently for the last three or four years.”

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.