Las Vegas Sun

March 28, 2024

NCAA Tournament by the odds: L.V. view of each Sweet 16 team

NCAA Tournament TexasAM-NorIowa

Sue Ogrocki / AP

Texas A&M’s Danuel House, right, is fouled by Northern Iowa guard Wes Washpun as he shoots Sunday, March 20, 2016, in the first overtime of a second-round men’s college basketball game in the NCAA Tournament in Oklahoma City. Texas A&M won 92-88 in double overtime.

The three-day break in the NCAA Tournament allows for teams to regroup and prepare for what’s ahead.

Sports bettors should use the pause the same way. No matter how well prepared a gambler is going into the first weekend of March Madness, everything can change once the Sweet 16 is set.

Odds, after all, are fluid. Teams can go from undervalued to overvalued or vice versa quicker than Northern Iowa can blow a 12-point lead.

So before posting picks on all the eight games Thursday, let’s take stock of where each team vying for the national championship is from a sports book perspective.

No. 1 seed Kansas

Current Odds to win title: 3-to-1

Bookmakers’ sprint to catch up with the pacesetter Jayhawks fell short again over the first weekend of the tournament. Kansas covered in each of its first two games, by 4.5 points in a 73-61 win over Connecticut and by 1.5 points in a 105-79 victory over Austin Peay, to make its against the spread record 13-3 during a 16-game winning streak. The betting public has backed Kansas in lopsided fashion every step of the way — even against fellow popularly bet Connecticut — to kick up dust in the face of the sports books.

No. 5 seed Maryland

Current Odds to win title: 25-to-1

The perception of Maryland is caught in between two worlds. By oddsmakers’ power ratings — and pretty much any analytical measure — the Terrapins are one of the most mediocre teams remaining that has done nothing outstanding other than capitalize on a weak draw that saw them face South Dakota State and Hawaii. On the flip side, there are few starting fives more talented and naturally complementary than Melo Trimble, Rasheed Sulaimon, Jake Layman, Robert Carter and Diamond Stone. There’s a reason the Terrapins were a 10-to-1 co-favorite to win the championship at the beginning of the season.

No. 3 seed Miami

Current Odds to win title: 25-to-1

Wait, the Hurricanes advanced to the Sweet 16? Based on betting trends, that’s how some must have reacted when peeking at the updated bracket. Miami’s 79-72 victory over Buffalo as 14-point favorites in the first round was the least bet-on game of Thursday outside of No. 1 seed vs. No. 16 seed matchups at William Hill sports books. A second-round upset victory, 62-57 over Wichita State as 2.5-point underdogs, couldn’t have drawn much better with the unforgiving 9 a.m. time slot. Bettors have foolishly missed out on Miami for much of the season. The Hurricanes are 19-13-1 against the spread on the year, behind only Kansas and Oregon for the top remaining record.

No. 2 seed Villanova

Current Odds to win title: 7-to-1

The concern for the Wildcats is if they can possibly play any better than they did last weekend. Villanova shot a tournament-high 58.5 percent from the field, pouring in an obscene 1.28 points per possession in romps over UNC Asheville and Iowa. Combined, the Wildcats beat the two teams by a total of 49 points and the spread by 25.5 points. They’ve moved into sole possession of fourth in the future odds, with their 7-to-1 price translating to a 10 percent chance of winning the national championship after adjusting for the house’s hold percentage.

No. 1 seed Oregon

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Oregon forward Dillon Brooks, left, shoots against Saint Joseph's forward DeAndre Bembry on Sunday, March 20, 2016, during the first half of a second-round men's college basketball game in the NCAA Tournament in Spokane, Wash.

Current Odds to win title: 15-to-1

So unimpressive were the Ducks over the first weekend that they’re one of only two teams that saw no improvement in their odds to win the tournament. They blew out a Holy Cross team traveling three times zone on one day’s rest from a First Four game 91-52 as 22-point favorites but narrowly escaped Saint Joseph’s 69-64 as 7-point favorites to reach the Sweet 16. Findlay Prep graduate Dillon Brooks rescued the Ducks with four 3-pointers, including what turned out to be the game-winner with 1:22 remaining. The pedestrian performance isn’t the only reason the Ducks are stuck at 15-to-1, as the Pac-12’s lousy postseason showing and the other top three seeds from their region advancing also contributed. But it’s pretty rare to see the odds give a No. 1 seed only a 5 percent chance of winning the tournament at this stage.

No. 4 seed Duke

Current Odds to win title: 25-to-1

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Duke guard Brandon Ingram, center, drives to the basket past North Carolina-Wilmington guard Chris Flemmings (1) during the first half in the first round of the NCAA men’s basketball tournament Thursday, March 17, 2016, in Providence, R.I.

Duke joins Oregon as the only other team with odds that held after a pair of victories. The Blue Devils were fortunate to go 1-1 against the spread, beating the minus-6 posted against Yale by one point in a 71-64 victory. They never seriously threatened cashing as 10-point favorites in a 93-85 opening-round win over UNC Wilmington. No one who watched Grayson Allen and Brandon Ingram chip in a combined 97 points in the two games is going to worry about their offense, but they weren’t as stellar defensively. Duke gave up 1.1 points per possession to the pair of somewhat limited attacks.

No. 3 seed Texas A&M

Current Odds to win title: 25-to-1

The Aggies would have served up the bad beat of a lifetime if they didn’t go 3-for-8 from the free-throw line in the final two minutes of their double overtime victory over Northern Iowa. Texas A&M closed a 7-point favorite before winning 92-88 in a game where its win probability was 0.04 percent with 44 seconds remaining in regulation. The majority of bettors, which haven’t thought much of Texas A&M all year, don’t believe the miracle is going to help going forward. Oklahoma minus-2.5 over Texas A&M is the most lopsided pick of the Sweet 16 so far, according to multiple offshore bet percentages.

No. 2 seed Oklahoma

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Oklahoma guard Buddy Hield, right, shoots over Virginia Commonwealth forward Mo Alie-Cox, left, and guard Jordan Burgess in the first half of a second-round men's college basketball game Sunday, March 20, 2016, in the NCAA Tournament in Oklahoma City.

Current Odds to win title: 12-to-1

The Sooners have proven terrific at two things that don’t usually complement each other — winning games and losing money. Bettors continued to load up on Oklahoma in the first two rounds of the tournament, and also continued to pay the price for it. Oklahoma is the only team left in the field that went 0-2 against the spread, beating Cal State Bakersfield 82-68 while laying 15 points and eking past VCU 85-81 as 6-point favorites. At least Player of the Year candidate Buddy Hield put on a show, scoring a tournament-leading 63 points in the two games. Oklahoma fell to a horrendous 12-20 against the spread on the year.

No. 1 seed North Carolina

Current Odds to win title: 3-to-1

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Florida Gulf Coast forward Marc Eddy Norelia (25) moves the ball off North Carolina forward Brice Johnson (11) during the second half of a first-round men's college basketball game in the NCAA Tournament, Thursday, March 17, 2016, in Raleigh, N.C.

It might not have been all their doing — they did only go 1-1 against the spread — but no team had a better first weekend than the Tar Heels. With Michigan State departed, North Carolina is now the du jour championship pick. The odds reflect as much, as North Carolina moved into the co-favorite slot alongside Kansas. It’s also the most likely Final Four participant, offered at an updated 2-to-3 price to reach Houston next weekend. That’s because the East Region’s other top three favorites — No. 4 seed Kentucky, No. 3 seed West Virginia and No. 2 seed Xavier — were all upset. Senior forward Brice Johnson has moved into the favorite to win the tournament’s Most Outstanding Player award at odds of 5-to-1.

No. 5 seed Indiana

Current Odds to win title: 25-to-1

Out of all the remaining teams, bookmakers might be the fondest of the Hoosiers. Indiana delivered for the casinos on a weekend where plenty didn’t go their way. There was an avalanche of money on Kentucky in the second round, sending the spread rising from Wildcats minus-3 to minus-4.5, but Indiana saved sports books from it with a 73-67 victory. Indiana’s first-round opponent Tennessee-Chattanooga was even a popular pick, as the Mocs plus-11 claimed 60 percent of the money on the game at William Hill sports books. The Hoosiers beat the spread by 14 points in a 99-74 win.

No. 6 seed Notre Dame

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Notre Dame's Rex Pflueger, center, and Matt Farrell, left, celebrate with teammates Sunday, March 20, 2016, after a second-round men's college basketball game in the NCAA Tournament in New York. Notre Dame won 76-75.

Current Odds to win title: 60-to-1

Suspense in sports books has reached rare heights during each of Notre Dame’s two games. The point-spread decision came down to the final minute against both Stephen F. Austin and Michigan. Rex Pflueger’s tip-in with a second remaining to beat Stephen F. Austin 76-75 only mattered for bettors who wagered at a certain time, as the opening and closing line was Notre Dame minus-1.5. Pflueger’s two free throws at the end of the prior game to give Notre Dame a 70-63 victory were just as meaningful from a betting perspective. They ensured Michigan didn’t even have a prayer at covering plus-3 after leading for the majority of the game.

No. 7 seed Wisconsin

Current Odds to win title: 80-to-1

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Wisconsin's Bronson Koenig is congratulated by fans as he leaves the court after hitting a three-point basket at the buzzer to defeat Xavier in a second-round men's college basketball game in the NCAA Tournament, Sunday, March 20, 2016, in St. Louis. Wisconsin won 66-63.

It feels odd that the only team that’s in its third straight Sweet 16 and fifth of the last six years is the ultimate long shot to cut down the nets in Houston. That’s what Wisconsin gets as the lone team that’s pulled off consecutive outright upsets this tournament. The Badgers closed a 1-point underdog against Pittsburgh in the first round before rallying to a 47-43 victory. Then, Bronson Koenig’s pair of “One Shining Moment”-destined 3-pointers torched 4.5-point favorite Xavier in a 66-63 win. It’s still up in the air whether they’ll have a chance at a third-straight upset, as it wouldn't take much action to shift the 1 point they're currently getting from Notre Dame before game time.

No. 1 seed Virginia

Current Odds to win title: 5-to-1

Virginia capitalized on a lenient slate of defenses to easily shoot its way into the Sweet 16. In wins and covers over Butler and Hampton, Virginia posted a field goal percentage of .554. That’s significantly better than their .487 mark on the season, and the largest differential behind only Villanova and Notre Dame. Although all four No. 1 seeds advanced to the second weekend for the first time since 2012, the Cavaliers were the only one to more than slice their future odds in half. They came into the tournament at 12-to-1 last week.

No. 4 seed Iowa State

Current Odds to win title: 25-to-1

Ask anyone lingering in a sports book what two teams left in the tournament are on a covering streak of at least four games, and it’s doubtful they’ll come up with either answer. They’d surely be hard-pressed to realize the Cyclones fit the criteria. Due in part to a 5-6 straight-up run over the last month of the regular season, Iowa State was the rare team that saw their odds rise on Selection Sunday. The Cyclones went up to 60-to-1 before working their way back down towards where they spent most of the season with combined 32-point victories over Iona and Arkansas-Little Rock.

No. 11 seed Gonzaga

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Gonzaga forward Domantas Sabonis celebrates after scoring a basket as Seton Hall guard Ismael Sanogo and forward Angel Delgado turn away during the second half of a first-round men's college basketball game Thursday, March 17, 2016, in the NCAA Tournament in Denver. Gonzaga won 68-52.

Current Odds to win title: 25-to-1

No team treated professional gamblers better than Gonzaga last weekend. Big money shifted the line on both of the Bulldogs’ games, as they went from pick’em to minus-2 against Seton Hall and pick’em to minus-1.5 versus Utah. None of their backers had to sweat for an instant in either game. Gonzaga played too stiff of defense to allow for any scares. It covered by a total of 35.5 points in allowing the Pirates and Utes to only .81 points per possession. Domantas Sabonis may have made a national star turn in putting up 40 points and 26 rebounds as the Bulldogs beat the spread in their sixth and seventh consecutive games.

No. 10 seed Syracuse

Current Odds to win title: 60-to-1

No, the Orange reaching the Sweet 16 is not proof that they deserved one of the final NCAA Tournament at-large bids. It’s just proof that they’ve played two games like they deserved it. Take shots at the quality of Dayton and Middle Tennessee as opponents, but it won’t fully account for the way Syracuse eviscerated both of them. The Orange’s 37-point covering margin through two rounds is the highest among remaining teams. They’re alive in a bid to become the longest-shot champion of all-time after sitting at 300-to-1 post-Selection Sunday.

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.

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