Las Vegas Sun

March 28, 2024

NCAA Tournament by the odds: L.V. picks and preview of Saturday’s Elite 8

Oregon

Mark J. Terrill / AP

Oregon forward Elgin Cook celebrates after their win against Duke during an NCAA basketball game in the regional semifinals of the NCAA Tournament on Thursday, March 24, 2016, in Anaheim, Calif.

The left side of the NCAA Tournament bracket playing to form puts college basketball fans in line for a rare treat today.

By the odds, the pair of games scheduled to tip at 3:09 this afternoon are the most competitive Elite 8 contests on a single day in at least the last 10 years. Sports books imply a single possession should decide both Oregon vs. Oklahoma and Kansas vs. Villanova.

This feels like the right place to serve a reminder that sometimes the best decision a sports bettor can make is passing on games. These four teams are all capable and the market seems to be sitting on the right numbers.

That being said, Talking Points will stomp ahead to fulfill the promise of picking every NCAA Tournament game. The blog is 32-27-1 so far on the tournament.

Check below for Saturday’s Elite 8 picks and analysis.

No. 2 seed Oklahoma pick’em vs. No. 1 seed Oregon Last round’s picks blog acknowledged the offensive prowess of both Oregon and Duke but correctly sided with the former based off of a defensive advantage. Let’s apply the same logic to the West Regional final, even if it leads to the opposite destination.

Whereas Oregon might be an above-average defensive team, Oklahoma is a deceptively great defensive team. Senior Buddy Hield’s shooting ability has received the bulk of the praise when it comes to Oklahoma, but a defense rating in the top 15 nationally in efficiency per kenpom.com is just as responsible for its success. Unlike the first three rounds and even in the Pac-12 Tournament, Oregon is not going to find consistent open looks.

The Ducks have one fatal flaw of their own on defense. They are 237th in the nation in 3-point percentage defense. Oklahoma has posted an outrageous .426 3-point percentage on the year. There’s no doubt Oregon coach Dana Altman is sharp enough to effectively game plan for the attack, but Oklahoma coach Lon Kruger won’t be at a disadvantage matching wits. The Sooners will get the shots they need, and barring an ill-timed off night, will advance to their first Final Four in 14 years.

No. 2 seed Villanova plus-2.5 vs. No. 1 seed Kansas This has the look of a Final Four matchup, or even a national championship, disguised as a regional final. Coming into the tournament, most bookmakers had Kansas as the top power-rated team with Villanova at No. 5.

The Jayhawks have stayed entrenched, while the Wildcats have shot their way up at least one slot. Emphasis on “shot”. Villanova has a .598 field goal percentage in the tournament. It’s going to get a different level of resistance in Kansas, which is allowing opponents to shoot only .397 on the year. But if Villanova stays near as scorching on offense, it’s going to ensure a third straight year where the No. 1 overall seed fails to win the title.

And, at this point, it’s hard to find reasons to doubt the Wildcats. Most have considered the Jayhawks the best team in the nation over the last few weeks, a distinction justified by their 17-game winning streak. But Villanova had a comparable run earlier in the year, going 16-1 with the only loss coming in overtime from late December to late February, when many considered it the country’s No. 1. These teams are without weaknesses, and close to evenly matched. The best strategy is probably staying away from gambling on this one, but if forced, taking points must be the right call.

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.

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