College football by the odds: Vegas picks and preview of Week 11

AP Photo/Gerald Herbert

In this Saturday, Nov. 5, 2016, file photo, Alabama quarterback Jalen Hurts (2) carries in the first half of an NCAA college football game against LSU in Baton Rouge, La. At this point in the college football season, the favorites have been identified. For the third consecutive week the top six teams in The Associated Press college football poll were unchanged.

By Case Keefer (contact)

Saturday, Nov. 12, 2016 | 2 a.m.

Alabama’s 10-0 victory over LSU last week on the road delivered the Crimson Tide to a new plateau.

It’s now officially Alabama and everyone else when it comes to winning the national championship, according to the betting odds. Alabama is offered at Even money in the updated futures at the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook to win the College Football Playoff when it concludes Jan. 9, 2017, in Tampa, Fla.

The usual suspects now trail further behind — Michigan at 5-to-1, Ohio State at 7-to-2, Washington at 6-to-1 and Clemson at 7-to-1.

There have been highly decorated defending national champions in college football over the last couple years — Ohio State in 2015 and Florida State in 2014 — but none of them have gotten as low as Alabama’s Even money during the regular season. The Crimson Tide themselves were actually the last team to do it, as their 2013 team reached minus-150 (risking $1.50 to win $1) at this same point of the season.

They didn’t live up to odds three years ago, as Auburn infamously knocked off Alabama with the “Kick Six” 34-28 as 10-point favorites. Alabama will have similar challenges this year, as another massive Iron Bowl showdown with Auburn looms in a couple weeks.

The Tigers are down to a 14-point underdog in the game after the line swelled as high as minus-21.5 early in the season. It remains to be seen if the Crimson Tide can complete a perfect season, but it’s an achievement to force the odds so low in an era where a team needs not one, but two, postseason wins to claim a title.

Talking Points could use Alabama coach Nick Saban’s motivation about now, as a fourth consecutive losing week dropped the blog to its first losing record of the season. We’re now 73-75-5 against the spread picking the 10 biggest games of the week to go with extra picks.

Check below for Week 11 of college football by the odds. As always, picks are labeled into three confidence categories — plays, leans and guesses — with lines the best currently available on the chosen side.

ASSOCIATED PRESS

Baylor plus-18 at Oklahoma, over/under: 80; 9 a.m. on ABC or ESPN2

Baylor’s season has gone down in flames over the last two weeks, and its point spreads have accompanied it on the journey.

Baylor was only a 9.5-point underdog against Oklahoma in game of the year lines after starting the season 6-0. The spread adjusted to plus-11 after Baylor narrowly fell to Texas 35-34 as 4-point favorites, and then rocketed to its current position after last week’s 62-22 walloping at TCU as 7-point favorites.

The Bears’ defense had played well all season before allowing 688 yards and 7.2 yards per play against the Horned Frogs. That’s troublesome going into a game at Gaylord Family Stadium as Oklahoma is fourth in the nation at gaining 7.4 yards per play.

The Sooners are likely to get back their top two rushers against the Bears, both of which missed last week’s 34-24 win at Iowa State as 21-point favorites. Sophomore Joe Mixon was suspended a game for tearing up an issued ticket in front of a parking attendant, and sophomore Samaje Perine was nursing a leg injury.

It’s Baylor who’s now dealing with issues in the backfield as coach Jim Grobe suspended Shock Linwood, the school’s all-time leading rusher, a game for getting into an argument with an assistant on the sideline last game.

Lean: Baylor plus-18
AP Photo/Rogelio V. Solis

Mississippi State plus-29 at Alabama, over/under: 55; 9 a.m. on ESPN

It’s tough for teams at the top to cover consistently.

Alabama coach Nick Saban can attest because despite heading college football’s biggest power for the last several years, he hasn’t beaten the point spread in five straight games since 2011. The Crimson Tide will have their chance to match that streak against the Bulldogs.

And it might be unwise to doubt them considering the transcendent level of play by their defense. Statistically, this is at least Saban’s best defense since the aforementioned 2011-2012 championship team, and perhaps ever.

Edge rushers Jonathan Allen and Tim Williams have notched seven sacks apiece. Cornerback Minkah Fitzpatrick has four interceptions and six passes defensed.

They’ve slowed every high-powered offense on their schedule, but might face an unexpected one in Mississippi State. The Bulldogs ignited for 574 yards and 6.4 yards per play in a 35-28 upset over Texas A&M last week.

Mississippi State’s running game had been strong all year but its aerial attack joined the fray against the Aggies with sophomore quarterback Nick Fitzgerald finding top receivers Fred Ross and Keith Mixon a combined 11 times for 152 yards.

The Bulldogs’ defense has been a bigger issue, ranking No. 70 nationally by Football Outsiders’ S&P ratings, so the cover should come down to whether Alabama can take advantage.

Guess: Alabama minus-29
AP Photo/Chris Knight

Penn State minus-7.5 at Indiana, over/under: 59; 9 a.m. on ABC or ESPN2

Penn State may feel it’s not receiving due national recognition for putting together its best season in seven years because it shares a division with two of the country’s top five teams in Michigan and Ohio State.

The Nittany Lions are getting plenty of respect in Las Vegas, though. Winning and covering in five straight games has sports bettors solidly behind them.

Penn State’s 41-14 demolition of Iowa last week as 7-point favorites was a losing result for the house. The Nittany Lions are set up to cut into casino’s bottom line again if it can take its spread-beating bonanza on the road.

Penn State has attracted around three out of every four bets against Indiana so far, pushing the line up a point from opening at 6.5. The betting public is always drawn towards superstars, and Penn State appears to have one in sophomore running back Saquon Barkley, who’s run for 738 yards and 7.3 yards per carry during the streak.

But Indiana might have one of the better front sevens Barkely has encountered, as the Hoosiers are giving up only 4 yards per rushing attempt.

Indiana has a turnover problem, however, and ranks in the nation’s bottom 30 with 17 giveaways. It struck last week when Indiana lost four turnovers at Rutgers to only sneak by 33-27 as 14-point favorites.

Play: Indiana plus-7.5
AP Photo/Brynn Anderson

Auburn minus-10 at Georgia, over/under: 48.5; 12:30 p.m. on CBS

To cause mass college football chaos, Auburn needs to extend its SEC win streak to seven in its final two conference games of the season.

The current odds imply less than a 15 percent chance of that happening, but that’s mostly weighed down not by the Tigers’ rivalry game today but their bigger one in two weeks. Alabama is currently a 14-point favorite over Auburn, down from minus-17.5 just two weeks ago.

If Auburn follows a win over Georgia with an upset of Alabama, it would reach the SEC Championship Game over the consensus best team in the nation. It sounds farfetched, but Auburn having this type of season seemed just as preposterous a couple months ago.

The Tigers’ over/under win total was 7, which they’ve already matched with three games to spare. Their defense has consistently ranked as one of the best in the nation — currently at No. 13 by S&P — and sophomore quarterback Sean White has helped awaken the offense by throwing for 9.1 yards per attempt.

Georgia has gone the opposite direction, mounting no semblance an offense to leave it with no chance of eclipsing an over/under win total of 8.5 despite having three games left.

The teams’ contrasting trajectories have swung this line a long way from opening at Georgia minus-6.5 as part of the game of the year lines over the summer.

Lean: Auburn minus-10
AP Photo/Richard Shiro

Pittsburgh plus-21 at Clemson, over/under: 66.5; 12:30 p.m. on ABC

Clemson and Pittsburgh both subverted their supposedly established tropes last week.

The book on the Tigers was that they played down to their competition, having needed to eke out the last two times they were more than a 20-point favorite against Football Bowl Subdivision opponents. That never occurred in a 54-0 bulldozing of Syracuse as 28-point favorites where junior quarterback Deshaun Watson scored three touchdowns in the first half before sitting the second.

The Panthers similarly didn’t stick to the script where all their games are suspenseful, as five of their previous six matchups with FBS teams came down to a touchdown or less. They were trounced 51-28 as 4-point underdogs to Miami with their usually formidable running game behind James Conner and Quadree Henderson held to less than 4 yards per carry.

Rushing doesn’t look to get any easier against the likes of Ben Boulware and Kendall Joseph, linebackers that head a Clemson defense giving up only 4.5 yards per play to rank eighth in the nation.

The betting public has stayed with Clemson through the ups and downs, enduring its 5-4 against the spread record so far. That’s the case again here as money has come in against Pittsburgh, 3-6 against the spread, to push the spread up two points from the opener.

Lean: Pittsburgh plus-21
AP Photo/Steve Helber

Georgia Tech plus-14 at Virginia Tech, over/under: 55.5; 12:30 p.m. on ESPNU

Clemson won’t have a dangerous game the rest of the regular season according to the betting odds.

The ACC Championship Game could be a different story. Virginia Tech projects as less than a two-touchdown underdog to Clemson if the two meet in Orlando for the conference title in three weeks.

The Hokies need to live up to their status as big favorites either against Georgia Tech or Virginia next week to clinch their spot as the ACC Coastal division champion. Virginia Tech has mounted a resurgent season in coach Justin Fuente’s first year, but it’s done it without looking much different than the program’s teams of the past few years.

The Hokies have worked their way from dreadful to average on offense, but it’s an exceptional defense under longtime coordinator Bud Foster that has them on the verge of their first conference championship game in five years. They rate No. 11 in Football Outsiders’ defensive S&P, with twin brothers Tremaine Edmunds and Terrell Edmunds emerging as two of the most disruptive players in the nation.

Virginia Tech may need to alter its style against Georgia Tech’s triple option, which is humming this year behind senior quarterback Justin Thomas and freshman running back Dedrick Mills. Six of Georgia Tech’s eight games have gone over, as its defense hasn’t matched the effectiveness of the offense.

Guess: Georgia Tech plus-14
AP Photo/Jay LaPrete

Ohio State minus-29.5 at Maryland, over/under: 57.5; 12:30 p.m. on ESPN

The season-ending mega-clash between Ohio State and Michigan — where the former is currently a 4.5-point favorite — has become so anticipated that the rest of both teams’ games feel of limited use. The contests’ greatest value is comparing results against common opponents to try to gain insight into what will happen in the Big Game.

So far, that juxtaposition doesn’t bode well for Ohio State. Both the Buckeyes and the Wolverines defeated Wisconsin by a touchdown at home, but it took a comeback and overtime to do so in Columbus, Ohio.

Michigan also walloped Penn State, which Ohio State lost to, and crushed Rutgers by 20 more points than the Buckeyes. Ohio State will again be hard-pressed to surpass their rival’s performance against Maryland this week.

Michigan mangled a 31-point spread hosting Michigan last week in a 59-3 victory. Ohio State’s performance was even more impressive, though.

The Buckeyes killed a four-game against the spread swoon by husking Nebraska 62-3 as 17-point favorites. They limited the Cornhuskers to barely 200 yards and 3.5 yards per play, with interceptions from Damon Webb and Malik Hooker to improve the Buckeyes to fourth in the nation with a plus-11 turnover differential.

Guess: Maryland plus-29.5
AP Photo/Samantha Baker

LSU minus-7 at Arkansas, over/under: 46; 4 p.m. on ESPN

LSU interim coach Ed Orgeron responded to the most trying time of the Tigers’ season — losses in two of their first four games with no covers — by revamping their offense.

Arkansas coach Brett Bielema has done the same on the other side of the ball coming off of a 56-3 trouncing to Auburn as 10-point underdogs three weeks ago. The Razorbacks unveiled a new-look defense last week against Florida, and reaped the benefits in a 31-10 victory as 4-point underdogs.

Highly touted freshman defensive lineman McTelvin Agim made his first career start as Arkansas’s defense held Florida’s offense to only three points. The Gators’ touchdown came on an interception return.

LSU’s defense was just as stingy last week, holding Alabama to 4.6 yards per play, but it was overshadowed by the fizzling of its offense in a 10-0 loss as 7.5-point underdogs. It will be up to Orgeron to find a cure for the struggles of a declining offensive line to avoid losing to Arkansas for a third consecutive time for the first time in nearly a century.

The Razorbacks have also covered in four straight against the Tigers, making Bielema undefeated against the spread in the Golden Boot rivalry.

Guess: LSU minus-7
USC plus-8.5 at Washington, over/under: 62.5; 4:30 p.m. on Fox

Midseason quarterback changes are often viewed as a move of desperation. Every once in a while, they result in inspiration.

That’s how USC has looked since coach Clay Helton inserted freshman Sam Darnold behind center. The Trojans are 5-1 straight-up and 4-2 against the spread since Darnold took over.

The only outright loss came in the final seconds at Utah and the other non-cover was a bad beat in a win against Colorado where JuJu Smith-Schuster slid down instead of scoring at the end of the game.

After looking awful early in the season, USC now holds the same 5-4 against the spread record as undefeated Washington. But the betting public is backing the promising upstart over the established powerhouse in this one.

Washington has gotten bet up after opening as a 7.5-point favorite. The Huskies present a unique challenge for Darnold in arguably the nation’s best secondary featuring NFL Draft prospects throughout.

They have the better passing game despite Darnold’s breakthrough, too. Washington sophomore quarterback Jake Browning has 34 touchdowns to three interceptions, putting him on pace to set the all-time high mark for passer rating in a season.

He threw for six scores in a 66-27 victory over California as 17-point favorites last week, which snapped a two-game against the spread skid. USC has covered in its last three games dating back to the aforementioned Colorado contest.

Lean: USC plus-8.5
AP Photo/Tony Ding

Michigan minus-22 at Iowa, over/under: 50.5; 5 p.m. on ABC

Here’s a good laugh at the expense of the oddsmakers — Iowa was implied as more likely to reach the Big Ten Championship Game than Michigan at the start of the season.

The Hawkeyes were the Even money first choice to win the Big Ten West division. The Wolverines were the plus-120 second choice, behind Ohio State, to take the Big Ten East division.

Michigan was also only a 4.5-point favorite in this game. The Wolverines rendered those odds obsolete almost immediately with what’s on pace to be a historic campaign.

Michigan leads the nation in winning by an average of 37 points per game. The Wolverines’ average point spread has been minus-27, and they’ve still managed to go 5-4 against the number.

Iowa may no longer even finish in the top half of the West, as it’s 3-3 straight-up and 2-4 against the spread in conference play. The Hawkeyes have lost and failed to cover in two straight where their offense has barely mustered 4 yards per play.

Michigan has only given up 4 yards per play, rating second in the nation, with sophomore Jabrill Peppers drawing more acclaim than any defensive player in years. He’s one of three Michigan linebackers leading the team in tackling as senior Ben Gedeon and junior Mike McCray have been just as essential.

Guess: Iowa plus-22
AP Photo/Young Kwak

Extra points

Florida minus-10.5 vs. South Carolina Getting a steep discount because of South Carolina’s three-game win streak mixed with Florida’s embarrassing 31-10 no-show last week at Arkansas. Based on the season as a whole, the Gators deserve to lay at least a field goal more than this.

Troy minus-1 vs. Appalachian State By any metric, Troy is the slightly better of the two best teams in the Sun Belt Conference so it should be giving more points here. The Trojans have a more electric offense than anything the Mountaineers have seen in nearly two months.

Rice plus-10.5 at Charlotte Charlotte has never laid points in an FBS game, and now is giving double digits in its debut as a favorite. Taking Rice on principle.

Kansas plus-10.5 vs. Iowa State While on the subject of dirty ‘dogs, the Jayhawks have looked forward to this game all year as a spot where they could snap a now 18-game Big 12 losing streak. They’ve quietly improved this season, and are closer to the Cyclones than this line implies.

California plus-15.5 at Washington State The Golden Bears only got two more points than this against Washington last week. Yes, they lost 66-27 and were at home but this reeks of an unnecessary overreaction.

Army plus-14 vs. Notre Dame The amount of teams the Fighting Irish should lay double digits against is ever dwindling. The Black Knights were never among the group and aren’t now, no matter how poor they looked in a 31-12 loss to Air Force last week.