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Louisville quarterback Lamar Jackson (8) is sacked by Houston defensive tackle Ed Oliver during the first half of an NCAA college football game, Thursday, Nov. 17, 2016, in Houston.
Saturday, Nov. 19, 2016 | 2 a.m.
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Sports books shot out to a sizable head start over the betting public in college football’s Week 12 before Saturday’s slate even begun.
This was a rare week where one of the biggest games fell on Thursday night, much to the delight of bookmakers as it turns out. Some of the luster had worn off Louisville’s trip to Houston after the latter’s two midseason losses, but the matchup still brought big business to casinos.
Most of that business was on Louisville, who closed as high as a 17.5-point favorite after opening at only minus-13.5. The Cardinals never had a chance of covering any spread, as the Cougars ran them over 36-10.
Louisville quarterback Lamar Jackson came into the game as a 1-to-50 favorite to win the Heisman, with Houston quarterback Greg Ward Jr. at 500-to-1. But it was Ward who was superior at TDECU Stadium, as Jackson was held to less than 5 yards per passing attempt and barely 1 yard per rushing attempt.
Five-star freshman defensive end Ed Oliver also sacked Jackson three times.
The Cougars hadn’t covered in their last five games, making it no surprise they garnered little support at the betting window. But recent history may have shown they were a wise wager.
Houston has now come in as an underdog five times in the last two seasons under coach Tom Herman, and won all five outright. That includes victories over Oklahoma, Florida State and Louisville twice.
Houston has cost the house money on other occasions, but it’s made up for it on nights like Thursday. Bookmakers are cheering the Cougars for now.
Check below for Week 12 of college football by the odds, which previews and picks the 10 biggest games of the week as well as provides extra picks at the end. The blog is 83-80-5 on the year after going 10-6 last week. Picks are labeled in three confidence categories, and odds are the best currently available in Las Vegas on the chosen side.
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Oklahoma State plus-4.5 at TCU, over/under: 70.5; 9 a.m. on Fox Sports 1
One team is in position to take the Big 12 Conference championship, while the other is trying to ensure bowl eligibility.
It’s just not the expected teams filling each role in this matchup when looking back on preseason betting odds. And it’s not the way the current point spread may indicate either.
Oklahoma State comes in as a slight underdog despite only needing to win its final two games to claim its second-ever Big 12 title. The Cowboys fell to a 7-to-1 fourth choice to win the conference shortly before the season kicked off in August.
TCU was the 5-to-1 second choice, behind only Oklahoma, but got off to a slow start. The Horned Frogs hadn’t covered in any of their first five Big 12 games before defeating Baylor 62-22 as 7-point underdogs two weeks ago in their most recent contest. Their defense had played well, at least by Big 12 standards, but they didn’t ignite offensively until taking on Baylor.
Junior running back Kyle Hicks went off for 192 yards and five touchdowns in the upset. That might be a problem for an Oklahoma State defense giving up 5 yards per rushing attempt against Football Bowl Subdivision competition, which ranks 90th in the nation.
The Cowboys’ offense has kept them rolling, as last week’s 45-44 win over Texas Tech as 10.5-point favorites was the first time they didn’t cover in a month.
Play: TCU minus-4.5
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Ohio State minus-22.5 at Michigan State, over/under: 53; 9 a.m. on ESPN
Ohio State might be one of the only teams in history to have better odds to win the national championship than to win its conference through 11 weeks of the season.
With the chaos of last week, the Buckeyes recaptured their position as the second choice in future odds to win the College Football Playoff at 2-to-1 only behind Alabama. Local sports books don’t offer conference odds during the season, but Ohio State would likely be at least double that price with three teams — Michigan, Penn State and Wisconsin — at lower odds in the Big 10.
That’s because Ohio State’s only route to the conference championship game is hoping Penn State loses to either Rutgers or Michigan State. Current odds on those games imply greater than a 90 percent chance that doesn’t happen.
Oh, Ohio State would need to win out too but that seems much less farfetched. The Buckeyes are back up to a 6.5-point favorite next week against Michigan after the latter’s upset loss at Iowa.
Meanwhile, Ohio State has covered by halftime in each of its last two games with no chance for comebacks — 62-3 romps over Maryland and Nebraska. The Buckeyes held the two previously serviceable offenses to a combined 3 yards per play with the likes of juniors Raekwon McMillan and Tyquan Lewis raising their already heightened NFL Draft stocks.
Guess: Michigan State plus-22.5
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Florida plus-14 at LSU, over/under: 39; 10 a.m. on SEC Network
LSU dug in its feet over not traveling to Florida this week for a makeup date of the teams’ earlier scheduled game that was canceled as a hurricane precaution, and now the Gators are eating the dirt.
Florida saw its win expectancy as implied by the betting line decrease by more than 20 percent with the change of date and venue. LSU went from a 3.5-point favorite before the Oct. 8 meeting was postponed to more than four times that on Saturday.
Tiger Stadium accounts for a lot, but not the entire line move. LSU has also improved since then under the watch of interim coach Ed Orgeron, whose only loss and non-cover came in a 10-0 loss to Alabama as a 7.5-point underdog.
Take away that performance and LSU junior quarterback Danny Etling has looked like the better of the two Purdue transfers starting here. Etling’s former teammate Austin Appleby will again fill in for the Gators with Luke Del Rio out.
Del Rio is one of many injury casualties for the Gators, which are also missing their top three tacklers in Jarrad Davis, Alex Anzalone and Marcus Maye. The question of the game will be whether Florida can maintain its stingy run defense, which ranks seventh in the nation in surrendering only 3.1 yards per rush, without them.
They can’t afford a drop-off against an LSU team that runs on 58 percent of its plays and features two star running backs in Leonard Fournette and Derrius Guice.
Lean: Florida plus-14
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Washington State plus-4.5 at Colorado, over/under: 60.5; 12:30 p.m. on Fox
Many have described Saturday’s premier Pac-12 matchup as a battle between division leaders that no one saw coming, which couldn’t be more accurate.
At 20-to-1 in the preseason, Colorado was the longest shot of six teams to win the Pac-12 South division. Washington State was an 8-to-1 fourth choice in the North division.
Put those together, and the odds gave less than a 1 percent chance of these two teams sitting at the top of the Pac-12 at the end of the season. To be fair, it’s unlikely they both maintain their positions, especially with one guaranteed a loss today.
But it’s astounding in itself that both teams are in control this late in the season. Unsurprisingly, this wasn’t one of the matchups that sports books posted a line on in the game of the year spreads over the summer.
It’s likely the more popularly bet side would have been Washington State, just as it is this week. The Cougars have attracted about two-thirds of the action with the betting public understandably transfixed by their offense.
Senior quarterback Luke Falk is third in the nation in passing yards, utilizing a deep receiving corps and an offensive system that’s produced the nation’s eighth fastest tempo. Colorado speeds it up as well, and senior quarterback Sefo Liufau has actually thrown for a half-yard more per attempt than Falk.
The Buffaloes are used to being doubted, having gone a national best 9-1 against the spread thus far.
Lean: Colorado minus-4.5
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San Diego State minus-10 at Wyoming, over/under: 58; 12:30 p.m. on CBS Sports Network
Simultaneous to the two teams at the top of the Pac-12 standings facing off, a pair of division leaders in the west’s second-biggest conference will clash.
The difference is, only one of the teams in the Mountain West Conference showdown can be considered a surprise. San Diego State is right where it was expected to be in sitting undefeated to lead the West division after coming into the season as a plus-250 second choice to win the conference.
Wyoming is the Colorado- and Washington State-like party crasher as the Cowboys were a 50-to-1 long shot at the start of the season. But the Cowboys were undefeated both straight-up and against the spread in conference play until last week’s wild 69-66 triple overtime loss at UNLV as 7.5-point favorites.
San Diego State is an identical 5-1 against the spread in Mountain West Conference play with its only non-cover coming in a 17-3 victory over Fresno State as 18-point favorites. Canyon Springs High graduate Donnel Pumphrey is within striking range of passing Ron Dayne for the all-time NCAA record for career rushing yards, and currently sits fourth.
Wyoming’s offense has played almost as well with its own running back, junior Brian Hill, third in the nation with 1,417 rushing yards. The Cowboys have covered in every game this season at War Memorial Stadium, the venue with the highest elevation in college football.
Guess: Wyoming plus-10
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Indiana plus-23.5 at Michigan, over/under: 51.5; 12:30 p.m. on ESPN
Michigan fell in the biggest upset of last week; Indiana provided the worst beat.
Iowa’s 33-yard field goal as time expired that toppled Michigan 14-13 as 24-point underdogs will be the moment replayed all season, but it was the final scoring play in Indiana’s loss to Penn State that meant more in sports books. Indiana quarterback Richard Lagow lost a fumble that Penn State returned for a touchdown to win 45-31 and cover the 7.5-point spread.
It made Nittany Lions bettors euphoric and Hoosiers backers despondent, especially considering the latter had a 31-28 lead with four minutes left in the game. The only part of the ending that wasn’t surprising was that it happened to Indiana, which so often seems cloaked in failure.
Another example was last year in this series. Indiana covered the 12.5-point spread but blew an outright upset in a 48-41 double overtime loss where it let Michigan score in the final seconds of regulation.
Last year’s Wolverines were relatively anemic on offense. They’re much better this year, though they’ll now proceed without starting quarterback Wilton Speight, who broke his collarbone against Iowa.
In steps Houston transfer John O’Korn, who narrowly lost the job to Speight before the season. It’s not as if he won’t have a full complement of weapons, including senior receiver Jehu Chesson and senior tight end Jake Butt, who combined for 289 yards and five touchdowns in last year’s win against Indiana.
Guess: Michigan minus-23.5
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Clemson minus-21.5 at Wake Forest, over/under: 47; 4 p.m. on ESPN
There’s no word on whether the line move in this game was a result of Wake Forest shoring up the security breach it claims it fell victim to last week.
Clemson posted a 24-point favorite over Wake Forest Sunday afternoon before climbing down to as low as minus-21.5. The Tigers should have an easier time covering if they have access to plays the Demon Deacons have only run in practice, as Wake Forest coach Dave Clawson has alleged Louisville held last week.
Then again, the inside information must not have helped until the fourth quarter. Wake Forest held a 12-10 lead over Louisville as 34.5-point underdogs through three quarters, but gave up 34 points in the final 15 minutes to lose 44-12.
Clawson said his staff recovered documents belonging to Louisville that the opponent shouldn’t have been privy to.
There are no extenuating allegations relating to Clemson’s disappointment last week. The Tigers just finally saw their tendency to toy around in close games take them out.
Clemson won its first five game this season decided by a touchdown or less, but couldn’t keep up the escape act in a 43-42 defeat against Pittsburgh as 21-point favorites. The Tigers held a 166-yard advantage, but couldn’t overcome poor red zone execution and a minus-2 turnover differential.
Guess: Clemson minus-21.5
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Arizona State plus-27 at Washington, over/under: 65; 4:30 p.m. on Fox
Of the three upsets suffered by teams ranked in the top four of the College Football Playoff last week, Washington’s was the most understandable. It might also be the most difficult to bounce back from.
Washington closed a 10-point favorite over USC — more than twice as deflated as the spreads on the losses by Michigan and Clemson — ahead of its 26-13 loss. But the Huskies ballooned to a 20-to-1 price to win the national championship behind seven teams after the defeat.
At least the line is in their favor as far as getting the easiest game out of the trio of upset teams. Arizona State is struggling, having lost four in a row with only one narrow cover during the downswing.
The Sun Devils did return starting quarterback Manny Wilkins last week, but he threw two interceptions to help lead to a 49-26 loss to Utah as 4-point underdogs. Most of the points were given up by big plays, a recurring issue for Arizona State.
The Sundevils are 118th in the nation defensively by S&P ratings’ IsoPPP, a metric that measures explosiveness. Washington’s offense is No. 4 in IsoPPP, meaning sophomore quarterback Jake Browning should have ample opportunities to connect with big-play receivers John Ross and Chico McClatcher after the worst game of his season against USC.
Guess: Under 65 points
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Oklahoma minus-3.5 at West Virginia, over/under: 65.5; 5 p.m. on ABC
Oklahoma got its lone loss of the regular season out of the way early last year and snuck into the College Football Playoff when higher-ranked teams started toppling.
There’s growing talk that, despite two losses this season, the Sooners could ride their current six-game winning streak to the same fate once again. And the betting market is buying into it.
Oklahoma is down to 20-to-1 to win the College Football Playoff and one of the more popular bets on the board in this week’s game. The Sooners opened as low as minus-2.5 against the Mountaineers, which are 50-to-1 to win the title despite having one loss, before action passed them across the key betting number of three.
For the second straight year, they might have the only truly outstanding offense in the Big 12. Junior quarterback Baker Mayfield has Oklahoma ranked No. 1 nationally in passing offense by S&P, while running backs Joe Mixon and Samaje Perine have combined for more than 1,500 rushing yards and 14 touchdowns.
But West Virginia might have the only strong defense in the conference. The Mountaineers are giving up 5.1 yards per play with a particularly accomplished secondary to test Mayfield.
Senior cornerback Rasul Douglas is second in the nation with six interceptions, and fellow defensive backs Maurice Fleming and Jeremy Tyler have been just as valuable in coverage.
Play: West Virginia plus-3.5
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USC minus-13.5 at UCLA, over/under: 52; 7:30 p.m. on ESPN
UCLA coach Jim Mora breathed life into this dormant rivalry when he arrived four years ago.
The Bruins had only beaten the Trojans once in the previous 10 meetings, in which they were always the underdog by at least 6 points and an average of 18 points. But Mora won his first three games with the betting line in all four of his appearances at minus-4 or less.
That momentum carrying this back towards one of college football’s best rivalries ends today. Not only does the betting line resemble the pre-Mora days, but so does the betting action.
Everyone is on USC after its big win over Washington last week. The Trojans were as low as a 10.5-point favorite over the Bruins, but could now conceivably close as high as 14.5.
USC mauled Washington up front, as its offensive line featuring seniors Zach Banner and Chad Wheeler has emerged as the best in the Pac-12. The trenches are once again the place to watch in this game, as UCLA’s defensive line is its biggest strength.
Defensive tackles Eddie Vanderdoes and Eli Ankou headlined the unit coming into the season, but defensive end Takkarist McKinley has broken out with 10.5 sacks.
USC is on a six-game winning streak, having covered the spread in all but one of the victories.
Guess: Over 52 points
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Extra points
Middle Tennessee Tennessee State minus-4 at Charlotte Labeled the 49ers as an overachieving bet-against last week, and there’s no reason to stop now. Middle Tennessee is down to a backup quarterback, but let’s not forget it beat this team 73-14 as a 19-point favorite last year.
Colorado State minus-4.5 vs. New Mexico Lobos’ record makes them look better than they are considering their five conference wins have only come by an average of six points despite playing in the dreadful Mountain West. Colorado State has steadily improved, and has a good chance at a blowout victory.
UL Lafayette plus-23 at Georgia Georgia is hardly capable of scoring this many points, as it’s the Bulldogs’ defense that carried them on a two-game winning streak. This is also a sandwich spot coming off a big upset over Auburn and before facing rival Georgia Tech.
Maryland plus-13.5 at Nebraska Not a big enough adjustment in this line with Nebraska quarterback Tommy Armstrong doubtful to play. There’s a big drop-off to replacement Ryker Fyfe.
Virginia plus-11 at Georgia Tech Getting a few extra points by virtue of Georgia Tech’s upset victory over Virginia Tech last week. Virginia is well-coached and capable of hanging around.
Syracuse plus-21.5 vs. Florida State Remember the last time Syracuse got this many points at home? It upset Virginia Tech 31-17. Like the Hokies, the Seminoles are likely to come out flat at the Carrier Dome.
California plus-11 vs. Stanford Buying low on the Golden Bears, which have lost by a total of 95 points the last three weeks. But the losses came against arguably the three best teams in the Pac-12 — Washington, USC and Washington State — and they figure to play closer to their peak in the Big Game.
Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.
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