Vegas Play of the Day: Arkansas at Mississippi State

By Case Keefer (contact)

Saturday, Nov. 19, 2016 | 2 a.m.

We’re entering the third season of the annual South Point-lined Play of the Day competition, effective July 1.

Starting bankrolls have reset to $10,000, with the maximum bet being to win $1,000 and the minimum wager $300. Ray Brewer won the 2015-2016 season, after Taylor Bern prevailed in 2014-2015.

Mississippi State minus-1.5 vs. Arkansas: $330 to win $300

The betting market is judging Mississippi State harshly for a 51-3 blowout loss last week. At least it was against Alabama.

Arkansas has lost by worse than that this season, and it wasn’t quite against the most dominant team in the nation. Auburn is the team that walloped Arkansas 56-3 less than a month ago.

That’s a small and largely inconsequential comparison but it speaks to a larger point: Arkansas might be worse than Mississippi State. This betting line just isn’t saying so.

It implies that Arkansas would be a slight favorite on a neutral field, and therefore, a better team. I’m not seeing it.

Mississippi State’s offense is producing at a slightly higher clip, gaining 5.3 yards per play against Football Bowl Subdivision competition to Arkansas’ 5.2 yards per play. Defensively, the Bulldogs are way better than the Razorbacks — giving up 5.7 yards per play to Arkansas’ 6.7 yards per play.

This is Mississippi State’s final home game, and it needs to win each of its last two games to get to bowl eligible. The Bulldogs will be at their best.

Their best should be too much for the Razorbacks.

Current Standings: Bern (16-12, $13,317), Brewer (17-15, $10,515), Keefer (22-19-1, $9,461), Granger (1-4, $8,680)

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.