Vegas pick’em: NFL Week 12 winners against the spread

By Case Keefer (contact)

Thursday, Nov. 24, 2016 | 2 a.m.

Amari Cooper wiped out bookmakers’ Week 11 bottom lines Monday night in Mexico City.

The Raiders’ top receiver’s late touchdown reception from Derek Carr gave his team a 27-20 victory over the Texans to cover the 6-point spread. Oakland was one of the most popular bets in sports books all week, therefore providing gamblers some early holiday cheer.

It may have given the betting public flashbacks to a year ago, where they also carved into profit margins. Thanksgiving Day 2015 lives in infamy in casinos, as the Detroit Lions and Carolina Panthers blew out the Philadelphia Eagles and Dallas Cowboys, respectively, to cash big for bettors.

It wasn’t until the night game where the Chicago Bears upset the Green Bay Packers that sports books were able to recoup some of their losses.

This year’s football-filled holiday doesn’t appear to carry the same toxic potential. Early action was split on the two day games — the Lions laying 2.5 points to the Vikings and the Cowboys giving 7 points to the Redskins — and the nightcap between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Indianapolis Colts wasn’t posted at most shops because of Andrew Luck’s uncertain status.

Talking Points has endured a disastrous change of fortune since a year ago, when the blog sat 15 games over .500 picking every game of the season heading into the Thanksgiving. This year, it’s almost the exact opposite as the overall record stands at 72-88-1 after an 8-6 showing last week.

Check below to find week 12’s picks against the spread, separated in three confidence categories. Lines are the best currently available in Las Vegas on the chosen side.

Plays (13-26-1)

Washington Redskins plus-7 at Dallas Cowboys To much celebration, the Cowboys have won and covered in nine straight starting with a tight 27-23 upset win over the Redskins in week 2. Washington has more quietly been just as outstanding this season, going 6-1-1 straight-up and 7-1 against the spread since the loss, and shouldn’t take this many points from any team.

Cincinnati Bengals plus-4.5 at Baltimore Ravens The betting market regularly overvalues injuries to skill players, which seems to have happened here with the line swelling 1.5 points after news of Bengals receiver A.J. Green’s hamstring strain. The Ravens haven’t beaten the Bengals by this many points in four years.

San Diego Chargers plus-2 at Houston Texans San Diego has a plus-14 point differential as compared with Houston’s minus-34. That and every other metric labels the Chargers as the better team, so they shouldn’t be getting any points here.

Leans (26-31)

Tennessee Titans minus-3 at Chicago Bears Tennessee’s offense rates sixth in the NFL at gaining 6 yards per play, and it’s hard to see Chicago keeping up with third-string quarterback Matt Barkley. Grab this price still available at a few sports books, namely Wynn and Treasure Island, before it disappears.

Kansas City Chiefs plus-3.5 at Denver Broncos Buying low on the Chiefs, which still have the most well-rounded team in the AFC West, after an upset loss to the Buccaneers. Denver is offensively deficient, having dropped to 27th in the league at averaging 5.1 yards per play.

Atlanta Falcons minus-4 vs. Arizona Cardinals An intriguing matchup between the NFL’s most efficient offense — Atlanta gains 6.7 yards per play — and its most efficient defense — Arizona gives up 4.6 yards per play. The difference then is that Atlanta’s defense — surrendering 5.6 yards per play to rank 17th in the NFL — is more serviceable than Arizona’s offense — picking up 5.3 yards per play to rank 23rd.

Minnesota Vikings plus-3 at Detroit Lions Minnesota outplayed Detroit three weeks ago — winding up with more yards and more first downs — despite a 22-16 overtime loss. Having snapped their four-game losing streak both straight-up and against the spread in a 30-24 win against the Cardinals last week, the Vikings make amends on Thanksgiving.

Carolina Panthers plus-3.5 at Oakland Raiders Seems like a favorable spot for the Panthers, which had four more days than the Raiders to prepare and remain in a must-win situation. Carolina’s last three losses have come by only a field goal each.

Indianapolis Colts plus-7.5 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers In the off chance Andrew Luck passes through the concussion protocol and plays, this is an absolute steal of a price. And even if not, there’s precedent for oddsmakers adjusting too much for Luck’s absence. The Colts were 5-4 against the spread without him last year.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers plus-6 vs. Seattle Seahawks Tough trip for the Seahawks, which have only a plus-6 point differential on the road this year. The Buccaneers are a late Raiders touchdown and ensuing overtime loss away from going 5-1 straight-up and against the spread in their last six.

Guesses (33-31)

Buffalo Bills minus-7 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Jacksonville consistently finds ways not to cover, so if the line looks tight, would prefer to take the other side. As a bonus, the Bills average an NFL-best 5.3 yards per rushing attempt and the Jaguars run defense is declining.

Cleveland Browns plus-7 vs. New York Giants This is too big of a number to lay on the road, especially with a team at a coaching disadvantage. No matter how bad the Browns are, Hue Jackson is more trustworthy than Giants coach Ben McAdoo.

New York Jets plus-8.5 vs. New England Patriots Playing at home off a bye week as opposed to traveling cross-country, the Jets figure to be fresher than the Patriots. New York’s defense has improved over its last couple games, while New England has stayed mediocre on that side of the ball.

Los Angeles Rams plus-7 at New Orleans Saints Line looks spot-on, so must look to side with the team the sports books will need instead of the one the public will need. It’s hard not to feel like trouble is brewing when 90 percent of the tickets are coming in on a Saints team that still has one of the league’s worst defenses.

Miami Dolphins minus-7.5 vs. San Francisco 49ers Dolphins have won and covered five in a row to differentiate themselves as one of the best teams in the NFL, but they still aren’t being priced like it. They should lay double digits to the 49ers, who were bigger underdogs on the road against teams worse than the Dolphins this season including the Cardinals and Panthers.

Green Bay Packers plus-3.5 at Philadelphia Eagles The half-point hook makes the Packers the play with the idea that they can score enough points to at least stay in the game. The Eagles’ offense is almost as banged-up as the Packers’ defense, which should make them unable to pull away.

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.