Cincinnati Bengals running back Jeremy Hill (32) runs the ball in the first half of an NFL football game against the Cleveland Browns, Sunday, Oct. 23, 2016, in Cincinnati. (AP Photo/Gary Landers)
Sunday, Nov. 27, 2016 | 8:24 p.m.
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We’re entering the third season of the annual South Point-lined Play of the Day competition, effective July 1.
Starting bankrolls have reset to $10,000, with the maximum bet being to win $1,000 and the minimum wager $300. Ray Brewer won the 2015-2016 season, after Taylor Bern prevailed in 2014-2015.
Cincinnati Bengals plus-4 at Baltimore Ravens: $880 to win $800
No team has haunted me more than the Bengals this season, as they’ve failed to cover every time I’ve backed them. Call me stubborn because I think the value is once again on Cincinnati today.
These teams are even, so there’s no reason the Bengals should take more than a field goal. Yes, Baltimore has the better résumé and seems to be the better team this season.
That’s easily explained by its schedule. The Ravens have played the 29th toughest in the schedule in the league by Football Outsiders’ DVOA ratings.
The Bengals have played the 10th toughest.
And it’s not like they’ve done awfully. The Bengals haven’t won in three weeks, but their point differential in those games is only minus-4.
Cincinnati has the far better offense, gaining 5.9 yards per play to Baltimore’s 5.2 yards per play. It hurts losing top receiver A.J. Green to injury, but not as much as perceived.
The Bengals will still have an edge on offense, and they’ll use it. Cincinnati may win this outright.
Current Standings: Bern (16-12, $13,317), Brewer (18-16, $10,465), Keefer (24-20-2, $10,131), Granger (2-5, $8,180)
Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.
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