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LSU head coach Les Miles talks with referees during the first half of an NCAA college football game against Auburn, Saturday, Sept. 24, 2016, in Auburn, Ala.
Saturday, Oct. 1, 2016 | 2 a.m.
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College football’s good-natured, grass-eating, gamble-taking madman maintained his popularity throughout most of the country past the moment of his demise at LSU.
There may have only been two states where Les Miles had a negative approval rating — Louisiana and Nevada. The same erratic behavior and questionable decision-making that endeared Miles to unattached fans exasperated those who were counting on him.
There was a running gag that sharp bettors would never back LSU even in its best years of the last decade — namely the 2007 national championship season and 2011 runner-up campaign — because of the Miles factor. Those who were more willing to take the Tigers ended up disappointed more often than not.
Miles finished with a 68-75-2 against the spread record —the total doesn’t add up to his 114-34 straight-up mark because two games in the mid-2000s against Division 1A opponents weren’t lined — in 11 years at LSU. Supporters could argue that inflated point spreads are a burden that come with coaching at a program like LSU.
But the truth is, the best coaches in college football — Nick Saban, Urban Meyer and Jim Harbaugh, for example — have exceeded their point-spread expectations at a high and regular clip. That’s something Miles has never done, as the undefeated 2011 regular season was the only time one of his teams were ever more than one game over .500 versus the Las Vegas number.
Maybe Miles can make money for bettors at his next stop, as reports indicate he wants to continue to coaching. In the meantime, it feels appropriate that he departed Baton Rogue, La., after a bizarre game ending that saw a last-second overturned upon review in a season where the Tigers sit 0-4 against the spread.
The 18-13 defeat at Auburn was one of Talking Points’ losses last week, though the blog still went 9-7 for the week. The overall record now stands 36-22-2.
Check below for Week 5 college football by the odds with previews and picks of the 10 biggest games, as well as extra bets at the end. Lines are the best currently available in Las Vegas on the chosen side.
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Texas plus-2.5 at Oklahoma State, over/under: 71.5; 9 a.m. on ABC
The Big 12 will be more like the Mid-to-Low 70s in sports books this season.
Defense has gone missing in the most maligned of the Power Five leagues, making astronomical over/under totals the likely norm as conference play gets into full swing this week. Oklahoma State’s 35-24 loss as 7-point underdogs at Baylor last week was a suitable appetizer, given that more than 1,000 total yards were gained.
Texas gave up 507 yards in its last game, a 50-43 defeat as 7.5-point favorites at Cal two weeks ago, and somehow fields the significantly more efficient defense today in Stillwater, Okla. The Longhorns have given up only 5.1 yards per play in three games, with linebackers Malik Jefferson and Anthony Jefferson emerging as standouts.
Oklahoma State has found no such forces in surrendering 6.6 yards per play in its three games against fellow FBS opponents. There’s little doubt both Oklahoma State quarterback Mason Rudolph and Texas quarterback Shane Buechele will be able to keep their averages well over 8 yards per passing attempt.
Buechele will have to make due without one of his best lineman, as tackle Kent Perkins is suspended.
Play: Oklahoma State minus-2.5
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Miami minus-7.5 at Georgia Tech, over/under: 52.5; 9 a.m. on ESPN2
At his new school, Mark Richt is administering beatdowns as severe as the one his old school took last week.
The Hurricanes had a bye last weekend, leaving Richt free to watch many of his old players at Georgia suffer a humiliating 45-14 loss as 7.5-point underdogs at Ole Miss. Richt might have come away unimpressed with the Rebels’ 23.5-point cover, considering his team has beaten the spread by more than that in two of three games this season.
Revelatory sophomore Mark Walton has led Miami with 401 rushing yards and seven touchdowns, putting up stronger numbers than incumbent starter Joseph Yearby, who’s averaging 7.3 yards per carry himself. But those statistics were earned against Appalachian State, Florida Atlantic and Florida A&M.
Despite an anemic offense that’s posted less than 5 yards per play through three games against FBS opposition, Georgia Tech should provide more resistance than that. Georgia Tech has looked improved on defense, giving up 5.2 yards per play to last year’s 5.9, where linebacker P.J. Davis is a first-rate disruptor in both the pass and run games.
Lean: Georgia Tech plus-7.5
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Navy plus-7 at Air Force, over/under: 47; 12:30 p.m. on CBS Sports Network
Sports books traditionally tuck early-season games in the Commander in Chief’s Trophy series away on tiny televisions in the corner.
This year, they deserve big-screen status for the way the three military academies are covering. Army, Air Force and Navy are a combined 7-2-1 against the spread through the first month of the season.
Army suffered the only outright loss, 24-21 in overtime at Buffalo last week. That means this is the first-ever meeting where both Navy and Air Force enter undefeated.
The betting public is backing Navy, driving this spread down from as high as Air Force minus-9 earlier in the week. The Midshipmen have been far more dependable in the series, having gone 6-3 straight-up and 7-2 against the spread under the current coaches.
But Navy is the least experienced team in the nation, with only eight returning starters from last year. Wide receiver Jamir Tillman, a Bishop Gorman graduate, is the lone holdover from last year’s record-setting offense.
Air Force has most of last year’s team, which lost 33-11 at Navy as 4.5-point underdogs, back including Centennial graduate Jacobi Owens, who’s averaging 9.1 yards per carry this season.
Guess: Air Force minus-7
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Tennessee minus-3.5 at Georgia, over/under: 53; 12:30 p.m. on CBS
Fresh off of snapping an 11-year streak of losing to Florida, Tennessee is halting another double-digit skid this week.
The Volunteers are favored against Georgia for the first time in 10 years, and by more points than they’ve been in 14 years. That’s no surprise after Tennessee outscored what was perceived to be its biggest competition in the SEC East division by 28 points in the second half last week to win 38-28 as 6-point favorites.
The result coupled with Georgia’s embarrassing 45-14 loss at Ole Miss as 7-point underdogs shifted the spread more than a field goal. Before last week’s results, the spread was a pick’em in game of the year lines.
It’s hard not to imagine Tennessee quarterback Joshua Dobbs and his collection of big-play receiving threats — particularly Josh Malone, Jajuan Jennings and Jason Croom — not having their way with a Georgia defense ranked 80th in the nation in giving up 8 yards per passing attempt. Georgia might also be without preseason Heisman candidate Nick Chubb, who sprained his ankle against Ole Miss.
Tennessee has been vulnerable on the ground, giving up 3.8 yards per rushing attempt to rank 47th in the country, so Georgia will need Sony Michel and Brian Herrien to step up in Chubb’s absence.
If they’re unable, Georgia is staring down a four-game against the spread losing streak for the third time in four seasons.
Lean: Georgia plus-3.5
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North Carolina plus-10.5 at Florida State, over/under: 69.5; 12:30 p.m. on ESPN
Even last year when North Carolina came within minutes of winning the ACC championship, the Tar Heels had one fatal flaw: They couldn’t stop the run.
Their problem against running backs doesn’t appear to be fixed after giving up 281 rushing yards in a 37-36 victory over Pittsburgh as 7-point favorites last week. It also doesn’t appear to be a good omen going up against Dalvin Cook, who rushed for 267 yards himself in Florida State’s 55-35 rout at South Florida as 4-point favorites last week.
North Carolina has fared well in conference games as underdogs, though, with covers in three straight including two outright victories. They’re 5-3 against the spread overall when taking points in an ACC game dating back to 2014.
The Seminoles, meanwhile, are only 1-6 against the spread when laying double digits against a conference team in the same span. Most bettors will take Florida State regardless of any trends or statistics.
It’s treated them well this season with the exception of the 63-20 crushing as 2-point underdogs at Louisville. That’s Florida State’s only non-cover, while North Carolina has already dropped a pair against the spread.
Guess: Florida State minus-10.5
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Wisconsin plus-10 at Michigan, over/under: 45.5; 12:30 p.m. on ABC
Wisconsin players took issue when informed they were a double-digit underdog for their trip to Ann Arbor, Mich.
The Badgers’ displeasure could be diminished if someone followed up and told them that most sports bettors disagree with the line. The majority of the bets in the biggest Big Ten showdown of the year so far have come on Wisconsin.
It makes sense, because it’s going to be hard to beat Wisconsin by that much if it holds to its average of only giving up 12 points per game. The two T.J.s — sophomore linebacker T.J. Edwards and junior linebacker T.J. Watt — have helped Wisconsin rank fourth in the nation at only giving up 3.1 yards per carry.
Problem is, Michigan has been even better on defense. The Wolverines have given up 4 yards per play with sophomore linebacker Jabrill Peppers, who also returns punts and will have an expanded role on offense in this game, implanting himself in the Heisman conversation.
Michigan’s 49-10 victory as 16-point favorites over Penn State last week was its second cover of more than 20 points this season. Wisconsin has similarly overachieved, notching its second such point-spread destruction in a 30-6 win at Michigan State as 3.5-point underdogs last week.
Play: Michigan minus-10
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Kansas State plus-3.5 at West Virginia, over/under: 54; 12:30 p.m. on ESPNU
It’s the Big 12’s most transcendent coach to bet on versus its most troubled.
No one has a lengthier ledger of success than Kansas State coach Bill Snyder, who’s 162-113 lifetime against the spread after starting this season 1-1 (last week’s game against Missouri State was called at halftime, voiding all bets). West Virginia coach Dana Holgorsen has dropped two of three versus the number this year to bring his career against the spread record to 27-39.
Both teams’ quarterbacks are more similar than their coaches. West Virginia senior Skyler Howard has picked up where he left off last season as a dual threat, throwing for 974 yards and six touchdowns this year while rushing for 112 yards and a score.
Kansas State junior Jesse Ertz missed most of last year with an injury, but has come back to throw for four passing touchdowns so far and put up 145 yards to lead the team in rushing.
While reports indicate betting action is split down the middle, the line has moved in Kansas State’s direction. West Virginia posted as high as 5.5-point favorite locally last Sunday.
Guess: Kansas State plus-3.5
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Oklahoma plus-3.5 at TCU, over/under: 68.5; 2 p.m. on Fox
These two teams went off the preseason betting boards as the favorites in the Big 12 Conference.
Their stocks have fallen as fast as this spread, which was Oklahoma minus-8 in the summer. TCU notched the first cover between the pair last week, beating SMU 33-3 as 21.5-point favorites last week but after holding only a 6-3 lead at halftime.
Oklahoma was taking a much-needed bye after going 1-2 straight-up and 0-3 against the spread to start the season, falling by an average of 19 points per game on the betting line. The Sooners’ offense looked nothing like the one that led them to covers in six of their final seven regular season games last year in a 45-24 loss as 2-point underdogs against Ohio State in their last game.
Oklahoma didn’t score an offensive touchdown for the first 29 minutes of the game, and quarterback Baker Mayfield threw two interceptions.
This is typically where it becomes wise to buy on Oklahoma, as coach Bob Stoops is 9-1 against the spread for his career following losses of more than 17 points. And many have, as the spread has gone up from minus-1 earlier in the week.
But TCU is currently riding a 15-game home streak — it hasn’t lost at Amon G. Carter Stadium since 2013 — with an 11-4 against the spread record during the run.
Guess: TCU plus-3.5
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Memphis plus-14.5 at Ole Miss, over/under: 68; 4 p.m. on ESPN2
Evaluating Memphis comes down almost entirely to how one chooses to adjust for opponents.
Anyone who subscribes to the theory that margin of victory is the ultimate harbinger of success must love the Tigers. Dissenters who discount teams for having not played anyone are beyond skeptical.
In its two FBS games, Memphis has won by a combined 120-10. But that was against Kansas and Bowling Green, and it doesn’t get much worse than that this season.
Either way, the Tigers seem to have avoided the fall some predicted with the departure of coach Justin Fuente and quarterback Paxton Lynch. New signal caller Riley Ferguson has already thrown for 11 touchdowns on 9.3 yards per attempt.
Memphis pierced Ole Miss through the air last season in a 37-24 win as 10-point underdogs. Rebels quarterback Chad Kelly tried to mount a comeback in the game, and threw for 372 yards.
He’ll face the same secondary this year, as Memphis returns much more of its defensive core. The Tigers have looked improved on that side of the ball, surrendering 4.1 yards per play to rank 10th in the nation.
The burden is figuring out whether that matters, considering it came against the Jayhawks and the Falcons.
Play: Memphis plus-14.5
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Louisville minus-2 at Clemson, over/under: 67.5; 5 p.m. on ABC
Lamar Jackson shakes betting boards the same way he does defenders.
Many expressed disbelief when excitement on Louisville a couple weeks ago swung it to a 2-point favorite against Florida State after sitting as a 2-point underdog most of the week. Little did they know there would be an even more drastic move in the Cardinals’ second massive ACC Atlantic Division showdown.
Whereas the Florida State shift didn’t happen until close to kickoff, Louisville went from a 2.5-point underdog to a 2-point favorite against Clemson four days ahead of the game. Even Clemson, which stimulated the betting market with its own sophomore Heisman candidate in Deshaun Watson last season, never received that level of backing.
Watson is 21-2 straight-up, 14-9 against the spread as a starter, while Jackson is yet to lose in either fashion through six career starts. Another difference between the two is that Jackson, who’s already scored 25 touchdowns, has done more on his own.
No Louisville receiver has caught more passes than Clemson’s top three targets — Ray-Ray McCloud, Mike Williams and Artavis Scott.
Although Clemson was one of two national championship favorites all offseason, it’s now slipped back to fourth at 6-to-1 at the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook. Louisville has passed it as the second choice at 4-to-1.
Lean: Clemson plus-2
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Extra points
Oregon minus-1.5 at Washington State Willing to give Oregon one more chance because it has the talent to blow Washington State off the field — especially with Royce Freeman expected back from injury. Don’t forget the Ducks also lost two of their first four games last year, and then proceeded to cover in six of their final eight.
Virginia plus-4 at Duke Duke’s 38-35 upset of Notre Dame drew all the praise, but Virginia’s 49-35 win over Central Michigan was just as impressive last week. The Cavaliers figured out their offense, putting up 569 yards, to emerge as a bet-on for the time being.
Maryland minus-10 vs. Purdue Terrapins are playing like an energized unit under new coach D.J. Durkin. Boilermakers are playing like a burnt-out one under lame duck coach Darrell Hazell.
Utah plus-2 at California Wrong team might be favored as California’s offense won’t look as electrifying against a stingy defense. Utah is 8-3 against the spread on the road the last two seasons.
Florida International plus-6.5 vs. Florida Atlantic Shouldn’t be this many points in a game between two teams that are almost struggling equally. The home team has won and covered five of the last six Shula Bowls.
Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.
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