Las Vegas Sun

March 28, 2024

Vegas pick’em: NFL Week 5 winners against the spread

dakprescott

Marcio Jose Sanchez / Associated Press

Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott (4) passes against the San Francisco 49ers during the first half Sunday.

Week 5: Falcons at Broncos

Which side would you take in Falcons at Broncos? (Poll consensus year to date: 3-1)
Broncos minus-5.5 — 60.4%
Falcons plus-5.5 — 39.6%

This poll is closed, see Full Results »

Note: This is not a scientific poll. The results reflect only the opinions of those who chose to participate.

Nothing can put sports books in a hole like favorites covering in primetime games.

Those teams effectively buried casinos in Week 4 as the trifecta of favorites in Thursday Night Football, Sunday Night Football and Monday Night Football came through.

If misery really loves company, then Talking Points needs to sequester itself in a room full of bookmakers. The first week of the 2016 NFL season that wasn’t a runaway success for casinos was also the worst performance in the history of the blog.

The pick’em went 5-10 against the spread, dropping the season record picking every game to 29-34. The only acceptable mentality now is to make like the Dallas Cowboys and dig out.

Dallas was down 14-0 just slightly more than a quarter into its game Sunday at San Francisco, but rallied to not only win but also cover the 2-point spread in a 24-17 victory. The result went down as a loser for both the blog and sports books.

We’re now roughly a quarter through the regular season, and looking to follow the same trajectory as the Cowboys in the remaining three quarters of the year. The comeback starts now.

Check below for Week 5 picks against the spread, separated as always into three confidence categories. Point spreads are the best currently available in Las Vegas on the chosen side.

Plays (4-11)

Buffalo Bills plus-3 at Los Angeles Rams Must throw the ball to beat the Bills, which are giving up 7.2 yards per pass attempt to 3.6 yards per rush, and the Rams are wholly incapable of that behind quarterback Case Keenum. A decline is inevitable for Los Angeles, which is 3-1 despite being one of seven teams in the NFL giving up a half-yard more per play than it gains.

Chicago Bears plus-5 at Indianapolis Colts Number on this game was Indianapolis minus-3.5 before the season, and there’s been nothing to suggest the Colts deserve to lay an extra 1.5 points during an error-filled 1-3 straight-up and against the spread start to the season. They’re also in a vulnerable position, not having the luxury of a bye week after playing a game in London.

Baltimore Ravens minus-3.5 vs. Washington Redskins Despite last week’s disappointing defensive finish against the Raiders, bet-on signs remain for the Ravens, which trail only the Broncos and Seahawks in giving up 4.6 yards per play. Baltimore’s offense also appears to be coming around with Terrance West emerging to produce a running threat it lacked the first two weeks.

Leans (13-11)

Denver Broncos minus-5.5 vs. Atlanta Falcons Atlanta’s offense can’t possibly keep producing at the same clip, not against Von Miller and new pass-rushing terror Derek Wolfe. Sports Authority Field at Mile High is a hellacious place to play for uncustomary teams, which is why the Broncos have won 10 straight and gone 7-3 against the spread versus NFC opponents there. The last loss was in the Tim Tebow days.

Cleveland Browns plus-10.5 at New England Patriots It’s not irrational to think it could take 39-year-old Tom Brady a week or two to get into a rhythm after being away from the Patriots for the last month. Brady has been mediocre by his standards in the first game of the season in each of the last three years, going 0-3 against the spread with less than 6 yards per pass attempt.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers plus-7 at Carolina Panthers If judged based off this year instead of last year — which seems fair given that they’re now a quarter of the way through the schedule — the Panthers have no business giving a touchdown. And this line, which is only available at CG Technology sports books, is a steal in the chance Cam Newton is forced to sit out after suffering a concussion last week.

San Francisco 49ers plus-4 vs. Arizona Cardinals Refuse to lay points on the road with Arizona quarterback Drew Stanton, who’s only been in that position once before — the Cardinals were a 1.5-point favorite in a 29-18 loss at Atlanta in 2014. He’s also thrown 1.5 interceptions for every touchdown throughout his career.

Cincinnati Bengals pick’em at Dallas Cowboys Extra preparation time matters, as teams off of a Thursday Night Football performance have started profitably for another season. They’re 4-2 against the spread so far.

Guesses (12-12)

Tennessee Titans plus-3.5 at Miami Dolphins The half-point hooks makes Titans the play, as these teams have been so equally lousy that the spread should be minus-3 for whichever is at home. The Titans’ defense might be the best unit in the game.

Philadelphia Eagles minus-3 at Detroit Lions Taking the value because this spread should close at least a half-point higher. The Lions are too banged up on defense to seriously consider selling high on Philadelphia after its dominant 3-0 straight-up and against the spread start.

Pittsburgh Steelers minus-7 vs. New York Jets The Jets’ defense carried them last year, but appears to have regressed by allowing 6.2 yards per play through four games. That’s a problem against a Pittsburgh offense that might end up as the best in the NFL with LeVeon Bell back and possibly better than ever.

New York Giants plus-7.5 at Green Bay Packers Line seems exactly right, but hoping the Packers continue to struggle when expectations are at their highest. They’ve failed to cover their last four games as a favorite of more than a touchdown.

Minnesota Vikings minus-6 vs. Houston Texans These two teams have gone a combined 6-2 to the under so far this season, so it’s hard to lay this many points in what projects as a low-scoring game. But Houston must be next to the Rams as one of the least inspiring 3-1 teams ever, as it’s been outscored on the year and needed a late punt return to edge Tennessee last week.

Oakland Raiders minus-3.5 vs. San Diego Chargers Haven’t picked a single game involving the Raiders correctly all year, so there's no confidence in forecasting this team. But let’s continue to fade San Diego coach Mike McCoy, as Oakland appears to have better direction with Jack del Rio.

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.

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