Las Vegas Sun

March 28, 2024

Vegas pick’em: NFL Week 6 winners against the spread

NFL Games 9/25/16

Kansas City Chiefs wide receiver Demarcus Robinson (14) and linebacker D.J. Alexander (57) tackle New York Jets wide receiver Jalin Marshall (89) during the first half of an NFL football game in Kansas City, Mo., Sunday, Sept. 25, 2016. (AP Photo/Charlie Riedel)

Week 6: Chiefs at Raiders

Which side would you take in Chiefs at Raiders? (Poll consensus year to date:3-2)
Raiders minus-1 — 58.8%
Chiefs plus-1 — 41.2%

This poll is closed, see Full Results »

Note: This is not a scientific poll. The results reflect only the opinions of those who chose to participate.

The closest three-team divisional race in the NFL by the odds should get some clarity this week.

All four AFC West teams play against each other as part of the Week 6 schedule, which could help separate a betting-board logjam that started months ago in the offseason. The AFC West was one of three divisions — joining the NFC East and AFC South — with no favorite posted at Even money or less at the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook in May.

Odds have only grown more compact since then, as it’s the only league up for grabs with three teams listed at plus-350 (risking $1 to win $3.50) or less to win through five weeks of the season. The Broncos have moved to a minus-140 (risking $1.40 to win $1) favorite by starting the season 4-2, but the Raiders (4-1) and Chiefs (2-2) are on their tail at plus-250 and plus-325, respectively.

The odds make the Chargers (2-4) the only team with virtually no chance, as they’re listed at 60-to-1 for less than a 1 percent probability when adjusting for the house’s hold. Denver’s chances hover around 53 percent, with Oakland at 26 percent and Kansas City at 23 percent.

But that is all guaranteed to change by next week at this time.

Talking Points is calling for major shake-up by siding with the underdogs in both AFC West contests. The blog hopes that can help in turning the tide after two straight poor weeks, including a 6-8 record picking every game against the spread in Week 5 to bring the season total to 35-42.

Check below for full Week 6 picks, with picks separated into three confidence categories as always. Lines are the best currently available on the chosen side.

Plays (5-13)

Kansas City Chiefs plus-1 at Oakland Raiders A great spot for the Chiefs, which are rested off of a bye week and poised to make amends for getting blown out in their last game. Getting even a point with the better team, and one that’s won five of six in the series since coach Andy Reid arrived including three straight, is a gift.

San Francisco 49ers plus-9 at Buffalo Bills Perfect opportunity to sell high on the Bills, which have seen a lot align properly to enable a three-game win streak. Colin Kaepernick should spark the 49ers, as his style is a more natural fit for coach Chip Kelly’s offense.

Seattle Seahawks minus-6.5 vs. Atlanta Falcons While the Seahawks have enjoyed two weeks without a game, the Falcons have traveled nearly 6,000 miles. One strong outing against rookie quarterback Paxton Lynch isn’t enough to absolve concerns about the Falcons’ defense, which ranks 26th in the NFL by Football Outsiders’ DVOA.

Detroit Lions minus-3 vs. Los Angeles Rams As long as the Rams insist on starting Case Keenum — who’s ahead of only Ryan Fitzpatrick, Blaine Gabbert and Brock Osweiler in passer rating — they’re a bet against. Lay the field goal before the half-point hook gets added at every sports book across town.

Leans (14-15)

San Diego Chargers plus-3.5 vs. Denver Broncos Chargers are undervalued by virtue of having a statistical profile, including a plus-10 point differential, closer to a 3-2 team than their actual 1-4 record. It’s fun to mock them for their fourth-quarter meltdowns, but part of the problem is randomness that will equal out.

Indianapolis Colts plus-3.5 at Houston Texans Texans’ record is one game better than the Colts’ but virtually all the more predictive measures label Indianapolis as the better team. There’s no way the Colts should be getting a field goal on the betting line, let alone more than that.

Miami Dolphins plus-8 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Point spread is inflated after last week’s extremes — a 31-13 victory for Pittsburgh over the New York Jets and a 30-17 Miami loss to Tennessee. The look-ahead line a week ago was only Pittsburgh minus-4.5.

Philadelphia Eagles minus-2 at Washington Redskins Expect Eagles rookie quarterback Carson Wentz to look outstanding yet again considering he’s going up against a pass defense ranked worst in the league by Football Outsiders’ DVOA ratings. Line has shifted from pick’em to minus-2, but the move is insignificant until it reaches minus-3.

Guesses (16-14)

Baltimore Ravens plus-3 at New York Giants With eight of these teams’ 10 combined games this season being decided by less than a touchdown, and half of them by a field goal or less, must take the points. Ravens quarterback Joe Flacco has been reinvigorated by an offensive coordinator change before, making it possible Marty Mornhinweg replacing Marc Trestman could have the same effect.

Chicago Bears minus-2.5 vs. Jacksonville Jaguars Consider this pick a reminder that the Jaguars have been as lousy as the last several years in opening the season 1-3 with a minus-27 point differential. There’s no reason they should be pulling in more than 60 percent of the betting action on the road.

Cleveland Browns plus-7.5 at Tennessee Titans Titans haven’t won two straight games since 2013, when Ryan Fitzpatrick was their quarterback. They haven’t won two straight games by more than a touchdown since 2010, when Kerry Collins was their quarterback.

Green Bay Packers minus-4 vs. Dallas Cowboys Can you believe Dak Prescott has thrown for three fewer interceptions and nearly two yards more per attempt than Aaron Rodgers? Me neither.

Arizona Cardinals minus-7.5 vs. New York Jets Taking the reasonable number, as the betting public is likely to push the spread higher before the Monday Night Football kickoff. With so many issues currently consuming the roster, the Jets are unable to be backed unless there are outstanding circumstances.

Carolina Panthers minus-3 at New Orleans Saints Panthers have now outgained their opponents in three of four losses this season, including by 3.1 yards per play in a fluky 17-14 defeat to Tampa Bay on Monday Night Football. Line movement should be fascinating to watch in this game as more shops post the number when Cam Newton’s status becomes clearer.

Cincinnati Bengals plus-9 at New England Patriots Bengals are undoubtedly down from the last couple years but not quite ready to banish them to the lower reaches of the league, where they’d need to reside to be getting nearly double digits here. At the same time, it’s difficult to want to bet against an offense that put up more than 500 yards in Tom Brady’s return last week.

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.

Join the Discussion:

Check this out for a full explanation of our conversion to the LiveFyre commenting system and instructions on how to sign up for an account.

Full comments policy