Vegas pick’em: NFL Week 7 winners against the spread

By Case Keefer (contact)

Thursday, Oct. 20, 2016 | 2 a.m.

Steelers quarterback Landry Jones implored teammates not to panic Wednesday because of Ben Roethlisberger’s injury going into this week’s game against the Patriots.

It was already too late for the betting market to heed his advice. The Patriots are one of the most popular bets on the board in Week 7 with gamblers lining up to take them laying 7.5 on the road.

It’s a sad fate for a game that was arguably the most anticipated on the NFL schedule coming into the year. The Patriots and Steelers were the two favorites to reach the Super Bowl from the AFC, at plus-275 (risking $1 to win $2.75) and plus-450 respectively, all offseason.

Even before last week’s games, New England at Pittsburgh was still posted at a pick’em with the promise of getting at least something resembling two-way action in sports books. That withered as soon as Roethlisberger tore his meniscus, and later underwent surgery that could sideline him for more than a month.

Pittsburgh remains the second betting choice to win the AFC, now at plus-550 to New England’s plus-110, but it must learn to play without Roethlisberger to stay there. Jones must live up to his word.

He can’t be any worse than Talking Points, which suffered a third consecutive losing week with a 6-8-1 record in Week 6 to make the record picking every game this season 41-50-1.

Check below for the blog’s continued struggle to turn it around. Picks are separated into three confidence categories, and lines are the best currently available on the chosen sides.

Plays (6-15-1)

Philadelphia Eagles plus-3 vs. Minnesota Vikings Eagles have the fifth-best pass defense in the NFL by Football Outsiders’ DVOA ratings. Feels like that will be the difference in the game considering the Vikings, which can’t run the ball at all, haven’t faced a secondary that strong during their undefeated start to the season.

San Francisco 49ers plus-2.5 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers Line swung three points in the Buccaneers’ direction after the 49ers were demolished 45-16 as 7.5-point underdogs at Buffalo last week. That glosses over the fact that Tampa Bay has already fallen victim to two losses that embarrassing this season.

Washington Redskins plus-1.5 at Detroit Lions Detroit gave up 10 yards per passing attempt to Case Keenum last week, all but confirming suspicions that it has the worst defense in the league. It’s not good news that Washington has a higher-ranked offense, No. 9 in DVOA, than anyone it’s faced so far.

Leans (17-16)

Seattle Seahawks plus-2 at Arizona Cardinals Beating down two of the worst teams in the NFL, the Jets and the 49ers, doesn’t mean all of Arizona’s problems are solved. The Cardinals are 25th in the NFL in averaging only 6.2 yards per passing attempt, and it’s not going to get better against a Seahawks secondary that’s shut them down in the past.

Miami Dolphins plus-3 vs. Buffalo Bills Miami’s 30-15 victory over Pittsburgh as a 7.5-point underdog last week was as impressive as anything Buffalo has done throughout its four-game win streak. Still looking to sell high on the Bills, which are suddenly attracting lopsided action weekly in sports books.

Chicago Bears plus-8 at Green Bay Packers Chicago has been more efficient on both offense, gaining 6 yards per play to Green Bay’s 5.2 yards per play, and defense, giving up 5.4 yards per play to Green Bay’s 5.5 yards per play. The Bears have been unlucky to lose their last two games by a combined seven points when they’ve built a near 200-yard advantage.

Kansas City Chiefs minus-6.5 vs. New Orleans Saints Line has gradually decreased — it was Kansas City minus-8 before the season and minus-7 last week — despite a clear difference in quality between the two teams. The Saints have outscored opponents by a total of four points during their two-game win streak, while the Chiefs’ last two wins have come by 37 points.

Jacksonville Jaguars minus-1 vs. Oakland Raiders Ranking fourth in the NFL by gaining 6 yards per play, Oakland’s offense is the unit that’s attracting 90 percent of the betting action in this matchup. But Jacksonville’s defense, which similarly ranks fourth in the league by surrendering 4.8 yards per play, might be even stronger.

Guesses (18-19)

Tennessee Titans minus-2.5 vs. Indianapolis Colts Colts have won nine straight in the series, covering in eight of them. But that feels like the only thing keeping this spread depressed, as the Titans have outplayed the Colts in every area so far this season.

Los Angeles Rams plus-3 vs. New York Giants in London Rams and Giants have pretty much played to expectations this season with 3-3 records and slightly negative point differentials, but the point spread here has grown from a pick’em going into the season. There’s no value on the Giants.

Pittsburgh Steelers plus-7.5 vs. New England patriots The extra half-point makes the Steelers the pick as a surefire sign that the betting market has gone too far in adjusting for Roethlisberger’s absence. Pittsburgh has traditionally played well coming off of a loss, and better than expected while Roethlisberger is injured.

San Diego Chargers plus-6.5 at Atlanta Falcons Hard to pick against the Falcons, which have now won five in a row since a season-opening loss to the Buccaneers, but the Chargers continue to be a tad undervalued. They’ve outscored opponents by 18 on the season despite a 2-4 record.

Cleveland Browns plus-10 at Cincinnati Bengals By almost any measure, the Bengals are one of the 10 worst teams in the NFL. They shouldn’t lay double digits to any team.

Baltimore Ravens pick’em at New York Jets Suppose someone has to cover in this battle between teams that are both on four-game losing streaks against the spread. The difference is, all of the Ravens’ defeats were close and none of the Jets’ were.

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.