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March 29, 2024

College football by the odds: Vegas picks and preview of Week 8

College Football Picks

AP Photo/Brynn Anderson

Alabama defensive back Eddie Jackson runs the ball during the first half of an NCAA college football game against Western Kentucky, Saturday, Sept. 10, 2016, in Tuscaloosa, Ala.

This might be the first Saturday in college football history where the two biggest games of the day carry a betting line of 19 points.

The two teams that have separated themselves at the top in future odds to win the national championship are in the two weekly showcase slots. Alabama, the championship favorite at 2-to-1, hosts Texas A&M in the 12:30 p.m. CBS game before Ohio State, a 5-to-2 second choice, goes to Penn State for the 5 p.m. ABC primetime presentation.

Odds give only a 10 percent or less chance that either the Crimson Tide or the Buckeyes get knocked off course for the College Football Playoff this week. The implied invincibility of Alabama is turning more heads given the circumstances.

Alabama is one of the biggest favorites ever in a game between undefeated top 10 opponents. Texas A&M wasn't supposed to be this large of an underdog as recently as two weeks ago.

Alabama sat as a 14-point favorite in game of the year lines then, but worked its way higher by blazing a pair of opponents on the road. The Crimson Tide followed a 49-30 win as 14-point favorites at Arkansas two weeks ago with a 49-10 incineration of Tennessee with an identical line last Saturday.

The Buckeyes haven’t beaten the number in either of their last two contests, keeping the Penn State point spread right around the minus-20.5 where it was ever since the beginning of the month. Ohio State had four straight Alabama-esque covers to start the season, however, including a 45-24 annihilation of Oklahoma as 2-point favorites.

Talking Points analyzes the two matchups further, and gives picks as part of the blog’s weekly preview of the 10 biggest games below with bonus bets at the end. After our first poor week of the year at 6-9-1 against the spread, the blog sits at 58-44-4 for the season. Lines are the best currently available in Las Vegas on the chosen side.

    • Wisconsin running back Corey Clement during the first half of an NCAA college football game against Ohio State Saturday, Oct. 15, 2016, in Madison, Wis.

      Wisconsin minus-4.5 at Iowa, over/under: 42.5; 9 a.m. on ESPN

      Never has a team’s stock increased more than Wisconsin’s off a two-game losing streak.

      Don’t believe it? Consider this betting line, which was Iowa minus-3 before Wisconsin fell 14-7 to Michigan as 11.5-point underdogs and then lost 30-23 in overtime to Ohio State as 10-point underdogs.

      The Badgers proved their defense was as legitimate as advertised in limiting two teams most oddsmakers power ratings would have as the second and third best in the nation. Their offense also got on track against the Buckeyes, with freshman quarterback Alex Hornibrook throwing for 214 yards on 16-for-28 passing and senior running back Corey Clement piling up 164 yards on 25 carries.

      They failed to move the ball in a 10-6 loss as a 6-point favorite last year against Iowa, which used the win in the Heartland Trophy rivalry as a launching point to reach its first-ever Big Ten Championship Game. The Hawkeyes came into this season as the Even money favorite to claim the Big Ten West division again, but needs an upset here to get back into the conversation.

      A 38-31 loss to Northwestern as 11-point favorites three weeks ago mostly dropped Iowa out of the conversation behind Nebraska and Wisconsin.

      Lean: Iowa plus-4.5

    • North Carolina State quarterback Ryan Finley scrambles out of the pocket for a first down during the second half of an NCAA college football game against Clemson Saturday, Oct. 15, 2016, in Clemson, S.C. Clemson won 24-17 in overtime.

      North Carolina State plus-19.5 at Louisville, over/under: 65; 9 a.m. on ABC

      Clemson and Florida State might not have exhausted the run of ACC challenges for Louisville after all.

      After Louisville fell short in a 42-36 loss at Clemson, it looked like the Cardinals would be favored by at least three touchdowns in all their remaining conference games. The Wolfpack were able to sneak below that barrier, however, by coming even closer to pulling off what the Cardinals couldn’t last week in beating the Tigers.

      NC State kicker Kyle Bambard shanked a 43-yard field goal, one of three misses on the day, at the end of regulation to allow Clemson to escape with a 24-17 overtime victory as 20-point favorites. It was NC State’s fourth straight cover led by Boise State transfer Ryan Finley at quarterback and a defense giving up only 4.7 yards per play against Football Bowl Subdivision opponents.

      Louisville, behind linebackers Keith Kelsey and Josh Harvey-Clemons, has one of only 16 defenses in the nation that’s been better as it’s allowing 4.4 yards per play. The Cardinals had to lean on defense more than expected in a game that fell three touchdowns below the over/under last Friday as Louisville outlasted Duke 24-14 as 35-point favorites.

      Guess: Louisville minus-19.5

    • Colorado Buffaloes quarterback Sefo Liufau (13) in the first half of an NCAA college football game Saturday, Oct. 15, 2016, in Boulder, Colo.

      Colorado plus-2.5 at Stanford, over/under: 49; Noon on Pac 12 Network

      The Buffaloes may want to file an appeal to pollsters.

      Colorado was included in neither major top 25 poll this week, falling just short as the team outside the rankings with the most votes, after blasting Arizona State 40-16 as 10.5-point favorites last Saturday. Bettors would surely recognize the Buffaloes, which took over first place in the Pac-12 South with the victory, belong there.

      Colorado remains perfect against the spread this season at 7-0 as it had an even easier time covering in senior quarterback Sefo Liufau’s return from injury. Liufau threw for 265 yards, barely outdoing junior running back Phillip Lindsay who racked up 219 yards.

      Stanford’s offense did just enough at Notre Dame to pull out a 17-10 upset victory without running back Christian McCaffrey, who’s status again sits unresolved this week.

      Despite a prior two-game losing streak that had many panicking on Stanford, the Cardinal still sit at 4-2 straight-up and against the spread on the year. While Colorado has produced at a higher rate on offense, Stanford still stands with the better defense.

      The Cardinal field the nation’s No. 24 defense, according to Football Outsiders’ S&P ratings, with senior safety Dallas Lloyd having recorded an interception in two straight games.

      Lean: Colorado plus-2.5

    • Navy quarterback Will Worth (15) pitches the ball during the first half of an NCAA football game against Houston, Saturday, Oct. 8, 2016, in Annapolis, Md.

      Memphis minus-1.5 at Navy, over/under: 56; 12:30 p.m. on CBS Sports Network

      The American Athletic Conference must be like Mortal Kombat in that when one team defeats another, it also inherits the loser’s powers.

      That’s the easiest way to explain the overwhelming betting action on Navy in its first game since upsetting Houston 46-40 as a 17-point underdog. The Midshipmen have drug this line down from Memphis minus-3 with two out of every three tickets coming in on them.

      AAC games traditionally hadn’t drawn large, lopsided action until Houston emerged as a national topic by going 18-1 straight-up and 13-6 against the spread in coach Tom Herman’s first 19 games. Navy put a halt to the ascent two weeks ago behind senior quarterback Will Worth totaling 191 yards and three touchdowns.

      Houston needs Navy to lose to get back into position to live up to its preseason status as the AAC favorite, and the best opportunities are the next two weeks. After Memphis, Navy projects as a larger underdog at South Florida.

      But the Tigers present too many challenges on their own for the Midshipmen to look ahead. Memphis has the No. 39 passing offense by S&P. with juniors Anthony Miller and Phil Mayhue emerging as an underrated receiving duo.

      Navy’s pass defense has struggled, ranking 112th in the nation by S&P.

      Play: Memphis minus-1.5

    • West Virginia linebacker Al-Rasheed Benton (17) during the first half/ second half of a NCAA college football game, Saturday, Sept. 12, 2015, in Morgantown, W.Va.

      TCU plus-6 at West Virginia, over/under: 65.5; 12:30 p.m. on ESPN2

      West Virginia had bettors littering sports book floors with their tickets before halftime of last week’s morning slate of games.

      Texas Tech as a 2-point home underdog was one of the public’s favorite early plays, attracting 63 percent of the tickets at William Hill sports books, but West Virginia hardly gave it any chance of covering. The Mountaineers were up 24-7 at halftime and allowed no suspense in the second half of a 48-17 victory behind 318 passing yards including more than 10 yards per attempt by senior quarterback Skyler Howard.

      Despite improving to 5-0, it was West Virginia’s first cover since week 1 of the season. TCU is stuck on one cover as well with anyone whose bet on the Horned Frogs familiar with the feeling of hopelessness Texas Tech inspired last week.

      The Horned Frogs have spent most of the year not even sniffing their point spreads with a defense uncharacteristic of coach Gary Patterson’s teams. They’re ranked No. 65 on defense by S&P even though nearly everyone contributing to the unit had experience going into this year.

      West Virginia has broken in an almost entirely new defense that has surprisingly performed well, ranking No. 37 in S&P.

      Lean: TCU plus-6

    • Arkansas defensive back Ryder Lucas (24) is unable to stop Texas A&M wide receiver Speedy Noil (2) as Noil returns a kick off in the first half of an NCAA college football game, Saturday, Sept. 24, 2016, in Arlington, Texas.

      Texas A&M plus-19 at Alabama, over/under: 58.5; 12:30 p.m. on CBS

      Alabama wasn’t always going to lay this many points against Texas A&M.

      Bettors, not oddsmakers, made it that way. The Crimson Tide opened as 17-point favorites on Sunday, but early action added as much as two extra points.

      One of the craziest parts about all of it is that it’s hard to write off as unjustified. Alabama has played well enough that it looks like it can beat any opponent by however much it wants. The Crimson Tide have scored more touchdowns on defense and special teams, 11, than some teams have on offense.

      And it’s not like they need it, as the offense is humming right along with a pair of featured underclassmen in freshman quarterback Jalen Hurts and sophomore running back Damien Harris. Juxtaposing Tennessee’s last two games looks detrimental to Texas A&M’s chances of covering.

      Alabama’s 49-10 win last week was actually merciful, as the Crimson Tide had a 431-yard advantage over the Volunteers. Texas A&M gave up 92 more yards than it gained in an overtime 45-38 win over Tennessee as 7.5-point favorites two weeks ago.

      But the Aggies were dealing with numerous injuries — including to arguably three of their best players in defensive end Myles Garrett, receiver Speedy Noil and receiver Ricky Seals-Jones — and feeling the effects of playing five straight weeks against one of the nation’s toughest schedules. A bye week could help them feel more refreshed and prepared for Alabama.

      Guess: Texas A&M plus-19

    • Auburn linebacker Tre' Williams (30) reacts in the first half of a spring NCAA college football game Saturday, April 9, 2016, in Auburn, Ala.

      Arkansas plus-9.5 at Auburn, over/under: 55.5; 3 p.m. on SEC Network

      Each of these teams’ last games may have proven for once and for all that they’re both better than preseason projections gave them credit.

      Auburn and Arkansas were almost unanimously picked for two of the bottom three spots in the SEC West, but are now positioned to outdo those prognostications. Arkansas again demonstrated its offensive efficiency in a 34-30 upset victory over Ole Miss where sophomore Rawleigh Williams rushed for 180 yards on 27 carries, finally making the Razorbacks’ rushing game as lethal as its passing attack.

      Auburn, meanwhile, may as well have been auditioning its defense to join the conversation as one of the nation’s best in a 38-14 blowout win as 4-point favorites at Mississippi State. Two trays — junior safety Tray Matthews and junior linebacker Tre’ Williams — have helped Auburn force its way into the top 10 of defensive S&P.

      Both teams have lost a pair of games, but consider the competition. Every team the Razorbacks and Tigers have lost to are still undefeated.

      Arkansas fell to Alabama and Texas A&M, though it also failed to cover in both and sits at 3-4 against the spread for the year. Auburn’s defeats came to Clemson and Texas A&M, the latter being its only against the spread loss of the season.

      Play: Auburn minus-9.5

    • Ohio State coach Urban Meyer disputes a call during the first half of the team's NCAA college football game against Wisconsin on Saturday, Oct. 15, 2016, in Madison, Wis.

      Ohio State minus-19 at Penn State, over/under: 58; 5 p.m. on ABC

      Urban Meyer isn’t quite covering at the same rate that he’s winning road games at Ohio State.

      He’s not that far off either. Ohio State downed Wisconsin 30-23 in overtime last week to extend Meyer’s road winning streak to 20 games, the longest run for a new coach at a school since the 1800s.

      That meant the Buckeyes didn’t cover the 10.5-point line, but that only dropped Meyer’s against the spread record on the road at Ohio State to an easily profitable 13-7.

      They came on after trailing 16-6 at halftime behind junior quarterback J.T. Barrett, who also had to pull his team out of a lull during their last trip to State College, Pa. Barrett ran for two touchdowns in overtime to beat Penn State 31-24 as 14-point favorites ahead of Ohio State’s national championship in 2014.

      This year’s Nittany Lions are a little different and more committed to running the ball with sophomore running back Saquon Barkley. Ohio State has been slightly more susceptible on the ground, ranking 13th in the nation giving up 3.2 yards per rush as opposed to third at only 5.3 yards per passing attempt.

      Guess: Penn State plus-19

    • LSU interim coach Ed Orgeron yells directions during the second half of the team's NCAA college football game against Missouri in Baton Rouge, La., Saturday, Oct. 1, 2016. LSU won 42-7.

      Ole Miss plus-7.5 at LSU, over/under: 60.5; 6 p.m. on ESPN

      Ed Orgeron is often referred as one of the most motivating coaches in college football. A couple more covers and it might be time to consider the LSU interim head one of the most moneymaking.

      Orgeron improved to 7-3 against the spread as an interim coach, having also led USC in 2013, with LSU’s 45-10 beatdown of Southern Miss as a 24.5-point favorite last week. And that was without preseason Heisman favorite Leonard Fournette, who’s rushed for more than 100 yards in every game he’s played this season and is expected to return this week.

      Orgeron will have a chance for revenge against the only school where’s he been a full-time coach. It’s also the only school where he struggled from a betting standpoint.

      Orgeron went just 14-17-1 against the spread in three seasons at Ole Miss. Current coach Hugh Freeze has been much more successful at 36-21-1 against the spread, but risks this being his first losing year.

      The Rebels are only 3-3 straight-up and against the spread after falling victim to an upset at Arkansas last week. Their defense has been problematic in giving up 5.6 yards per play to rank 67th in the nation.

      LSU’s defense has been its one constant throughout a 4-2 straight-up, 2-4 against the spread season of upheaval as it ranks fifth in the nation surrendering 4.2 yards per play.

      Lean: Ole Miss plus-7.5

    •  In this Oct. 8, 2016, file photo, Washington State head coach Mike Leach instructs his team during the second half of an NCAA college football game against Stanford, in Stanford, Calif. Washington State's four-game win streak and return to contention in the Pac-12 can be attributed to the Cougars determination to run the ball on offense. History shows that when Mike Leach's teams are having their most success, running the ball is a huge reason why.

      Washington State minus-7 at Arizona State, over/under: 64.5; 7 p.m. on Pac-12 Network

      Washington State coach Mike Leach doubled down on his accusations of Arizona State stealing signals this week, saying the Sun Devils go to illegal lengths by using technology to pick up on opponents' play calls.

      Colorado must be really thorough in disguising its signs, because Arizona State had no semblance of an advantage in a 40-16 loss as 10.5-point road underdogs last week. Arizona State had a chance to go over its preseason win total of 5.5, but gave up nearly 600 yards to suffer a second blowout in three weeks.

      USC also easily beat a 10-point line against Arizona State in a 41-20 victory.

      With the way it’s covered recently in conference play, Washington State looks more like a team that’s gained an unfair edge. The Cougars suffered their first Pac-12 loss versus the line this season against UCLA last week, only winning 27-21 as 10-point favorites.

      That brings their overall record to 10-2 against the spread in Pac-12 play over the last two years. Quarterback Luke Falk has keyed the run, and sits sixth in the nation with 2,113 passing yards this year.

      Guess: Washington State minus-7

    • A Texas-San Antonio fan known as El Gran Beak cheers during the first half of an NCAA college football game against Arizona State, Friday, Sept. 16, 2016, in San Antonio. Arizona State won 32-28.

      Extra points

      Tulane plus-11 at Tulsa Tulsa won’t be able to fully unleash its offense against a defense as stingy as Tulane’s. The Golden Wave rank in the nation’s top 15 in giving up only 4.5 yards per play against FBS competition.

      Maryland plus-3 vs. Michigan State Four straight losses both straight-up and against the spread, and yet this year’s Spartans are still being priced like they’re a vintage Michigan State team. Until that changes, we’ll keep betting against them.

      UTSA minus-9.5 vs. UTEP Roadrunners have shown promise in upsetting Southern Miss and hanging with Arizona State. That’s more than can be said for the Miners, which might be the worst team in the FBS.

      UCLA minus-7 vs. Utah Utah’s offense inspires little confidence to begin with. It’s really going to be a chore for the Utes to move the ball against the most talented defense they’ve seen all year.

      Eastern Michigan plus-23.5 at Western Michigan The Broncos, ranked No. 20 in the latest AP poll, are finally getting the credit they deserve for being one of the best Group of Five teams this season. Now it’s the envious Eagles’ turn to make themselves known for being one of the best turnaround stories of the season.

      Mississippi State minus-3 at Kentucky It’s a minor miracle Kentucky, quite possibly one of the 25 worst teams in the nation, has covered in three straight games. Mississippi State is far better coached with far better players.

    Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.

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