Vegas Play of the Day: Maryland at Indiana

By Case Keefer (contact)

Saturday, Oct. 29, 2016 | 2 a.m.

We’re entering the third season of the annual South Point-lined Play of the Day competition, effective July 1.

Starting bankrolls have reset to $10,000, with the maximum bet being to win $1,000 and the minimum wager $300. Ray Brewer won the 2015-2016 season, after Taylor Bern prevailed in 2014-2015.

Indiana minus-3.5 vs. Maryland: $440 to win $400

This is a classic case of records not telling the whole story of two teams. Maryland is 5-2, and Indiana 3-4.

But the Terrapins are not better than the Hoosiers. At best, they’re evenly matched. I’d actually argue Indiana is a little better, which makes this line a steal.

The Hoosiers have played a significantly tougher schedule, which has led to their recent three-game skid. They showed signs in all of the losses — to Northwestern, Nebraska and Ohio State — but couldn’t get out of their own way with mistakes.

A home game against an opponent they can beat feels like the place it will all come together. Maryland’s two losses on the season, 38-14 against Penn State and 31-10 versus Minnesota, were both worse than any of Indiana’s defeats.

The Terrpains also went into overtime against UCF and were fortunate to beat Michigan State by 11 points last week. Maryland is much improved under new coach D.J. Durkin, but it’s a little overvalued.

Indiana still has the stronger roster, and it will play like it this afternoon.

Current Standings: Bern (15-12, $11,467), Keefer (20-16-1, $10,191), Brewer (13-15, $8,715)

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.