Vegas pick’ em: NFL Week 3 winners against the spread

By Case Keefer (contact)

Thursday, Sept. 22, 2016 | 2 a.m.

A crowd of sports bettors would line up to buy Shane Ray a drink the next time he’s in town. The Denver Broncos linebacker will just need to look out for another group wanting to throw one in his face.

Ray provided the rare double bad beat, or great gift depending on perspective, to conclude his team’s game last week. Ray scooped a fumble forced by teammate Von Miller and returned it 15 yards for a touchdown with 1:42 remaining to give the Broncos a 34-20 victory.

The Broncos were only up 26-20 before then, meaning the score allowed them to cover the 6.5-point spread while also eclipsing the game’s over/under of 47 points. If Ray had just fallen on the fumble, the Broncos could have kneeled to run out the clock with the Colts out of timeouts.

That wouldn’t have sent local sports books into a euphoric state, though, as Broncos and over were the more popularly bet sides on the afternoon game. Talking Points was on the other side, meaning Ray contributed to one of the worst weeks in the history of the pick’em. The blog went 6-10 against the spread in Week 2 to bring the season total to 15-17.

But Ray doesn’t have to fear assault here — as a Kansas graduate, I’ll even forgive that he went to Missouri. It’s a long season, and the breaks tend to even out.

Check below for Week 3 picks, separated as always into three different confidence categories with attached year to date records. Lines are the best currently available locally on the chosen side.

Plays (3-5)

Jacksonville Jaguars plus-1 vs. Baltimore Ravens Looks like a chance to buy low on Jacksonville, which has posted a positive yard per play differential despite starting 0-2 for the fourth time in five years. It’s not as if Baltimore strikes fear into anyone yet after holding on to beat what are probably two of the worst teams in the league by less than a touchdown each.

Cincinnati Bengals minus-3 vs. Denver Broncos The Broncos played injury-riddled defenses in each of their first two games, and arguably didn’t deserve to win the first or cover in the second. It’s not going to be as easy for Denver quarterback Trevor Siemian, who’s averse to throwing downfield, to move the offense against a healthy and stout defense.

Kansas City Chiefs minus-2.5 vs. New York Jets Ryan Fitzpatrick’s 374 passing yards from last week should come with an asterisk denoting it came against a defense coached by Rob Ryan, who presided over quite possibly the worst passing defense in NFL history last year. The Chiefs have won seven straight games at Arrowhead by more than a field goal.

Leans (5-6)

Washington Redskins plus-4.5 at New York Giants Not sold on the Giants after a pair of wins by a whopping total of four points. Defensive improvement is imminent once the Redskins better work in new pieces — including but not limited to Josh Norman, who will reportedly line up opposite Odell Beckham Jr. this week — as is their fumble luck after recovering only one of five loose balls in the first two games.

New Orleans Saints minus-3 vs. Atlanta Falcons As the opposite of the Giants — which edged them by a field goal at the end of the game last week — the Saints have only been outscored by four points in their two losses. They’re better than their record and undervalued by the betting market.

Los Angeles Rams plus-5.5 at Tampa Bay Buccaneers Teams coming off blowout losses are typically wise investments, as the Rams showed themselves in a 9-3 victory against Seattle last week. But few are ever as overvalued as the Buccaneers, which opened as a 3.5-point favorite and got bet up two points despite losing 40-7 as 7-point underdogs at Arizona last week.

Philadelphia Eagles plus-4 vs. Pittsburgh Steelers Might be falling for the Eagles, which appear well-coached with an aggressive defense. Hesitancy is a must since it’s only been two weeks, but they’ve shown enough to not get more than a field goal at home against anyone.

New England Patriots pick’em vs. Houston Texans Needed to lose bets against New England two weeks in a row to remind of the rule to not doubt Bill Belichick unless absolutely necessary. The non-doctor has improved to 161-121-5 against the spread as the coach of the Patriots.

Detroit Lions plus-7.5 at Green Bay Packers Green Bay’s power rating at sports books, long standing as one of the highest in the league, might finally be due for a downgrade. Since the start of last season, the Packers have given up .7 more yards per play than they’ve gained.

Minnesota Vikings plus-7 at Carolina Panthers It’s time to start respecting Mike Zimmer for what he is — one of the NFL’s best coaches. Zimmer is 16-5 against the spread as an underdog in Minnesota, including 5-2 when taking a touchdown or more.

Guesses (7-6)

Tennessee Titans minus-1.5 vs. Oakland Raiders It won’t matter how many strides the Raiders’ offense makes if their defense, which is giving up 8 yards per play, continues to bury them. And Tennessee’s quarterback, Marcus Mariota, is better than Oakland’s, Derek Carr, by almost any measure of their young careers including completion percentage, yards per attempt and touchdown-to-interception ratio.

San Diego Chargers plus-2.5 at Indianapolis Colts Philip Rivers has been nearly perfect through two games with five touchdowns, no interceptions and 7.7 yards per attempt. And now he gets to take on a team that’s hamstrung for cornerbacks.

Seattle Seahawks minus-9.5 vs. San Francisco 49ers Seahawks have beaten the 49ers by at least 10 points in four straight meetings. They were 14-point favorites in this game before the season started.

Cleveland Browns plus-10 at Miami Dolphins By Football Outsiders’ DAVE ratings — which combines preseason projection metrics with two-week performance — these are the two worst teams in the league. In other words, the gap isn’t wide enough for a double-digit point spread.

Arizona Cardinals minus-4 at Buffalo Bills Would prefer to align with neither a team traveling cross-country on shorter rest nor one in complete shambles. But the Cardinals did manage to go 3-1 straight-up and against the spread in regular-season games in Eastern time zone last year.

Chicago Bears plus-7.5 at Dallas Cowboys Cowboys should win, but it's not conducive to success to lay a big number with them at home. Dallas is only 21-37-1 against the spread at AT&T Stadium since it opened seven years ago.

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.