Las Vegas Sun

March 18, 2024

Vegas pick’em: NFL week 4 winners against the spread

Saintss

ASSOCIATED PRESS

New Orleans Saints quarterback Drew Brees (9) walks off the field after an NFL football game against the Atlanta Falcons in New Orleans, Monday, Sept. 26, 2016. The Falcons won 45-32.

Week 4: Giants at Vikings

Which side would you take in Giants at Vikings? (Poll consensus year to date: 2-1)
Vikings minus-4.5 — 62.2%
Giants plus-4.5 — 37.8%

This poll is closed, see Full Results »

Note: This is not a scientific poll. The results reflect only the opinions of those who chose to participate.

Apologies to fans of winless teams, but the betting odds don’t like the chances of a franchise overcoming a 0-3 start to reach the playoffs any better than conventional wisdom.

The Saints, Jaguars, Bears and Browns are grouped together at the bottom of future odds to win the Super Bowl, all listed at 200-to-1 or more. They’re additionally given an average 1 percent chance to win their divisions by the odds, meaning it’s likely that a 17th straight season passes without anyone digging out of such a large early hole.

That doesn’t mean the aforementioned teams are useless. They could actually prove quite lucrative at the sports books.

The four teams that started 0-3 last season — the Lions, Bears, Saints and Ravens — did anyway, as they combined to go a profitable 29-22-1 against the spread the rest of the year. Baltimore was the only one that didn’t post a winning betting record, and they just missed at 6-6-1 against the spread.

Bettors should therefore neither expect much out of the current bottom-feeders nor forget about them. The blog is backing three of the four losers this week after bouncing back with a decent 9-7 against the record picking every week 3 game to even the season record at 24-24.

Check below for week 4 picks, separated into three confidence categories. Lines are the best currently available on the chosen side in Las Vegas.

Plays (4-7)

Tennessee Titans plus-6 at Houston Texans Houston’s two wins masked the fact that its offense has played pitifully — its dead-last in the NFL by Football Outsiders’ DVOA metric — and now the defense must adjust to life without J.J. Watt. Tennessee has played better than expected, especially on defense, and is somewhat unlucky to have a minus-5 turnover margin so far.

Baltimore Ravens minus-3 vs. Oakland Raiders Opponents have outgained Oakland in every game, and yet that hasn’t stopped all the money from rushing in on the Raiders for another week. This number was Baltimore minus-5 on last week’s look-ahead line.

New York Giants plus-4.5 at Minnesota Vikings The Giants have gained 6.3 yards per play and only given up 5 yards per play for the NFL’s best differential. The Vikings are on one of the best against the spread runs of this century, but it’s important to sense when the odds have caught up — and they have.

Kansas City Chiefs plus-5.5 at Pittsburgh Steelers The Chiefs have continued to play as well as any team in the NFL, and are discounted by virtue of a narrow loss to the Texans where they were unlucky to lose three fumbles. Kansas City shouldn’t get this many points on the spread against anyone.

Leans (11-7)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers plus-3 vs. Denver Broncos Ninety percent of the tickets are on one side, which is an automatic indicator to look the other way. It’s an added bonus that the other way leads to the Buccaneers, one of the NFL’s most promising young teams that’s only going to get better.

New York Jets plus-2.5 vs. Seattle Seahawks Russell Wilson is even more hobbled than he was in week 2, when the Seahawks managed to put up only a field goal against the Rams. Seattle’s main priority might need to be reaching the respite of next week’s bye without further incident.

Miami Dolphins plus-7.5 at Cincinnati Bengals Starting to suspect oddsmakers overvalue the Bengals considering they’ve spent less than one quarter of game time covering the spread this season. Their offense might be feeling the effects of last year’s coordinator Hue Jackson leaving to take the Cleveland job.

Washington Redskins minus-7.5 vs. Cleveland Browns Washington reached the playoffs last year by beating up on the lower half of the NFL, going 9-4 against the spread versus opponents with .500 records or worse. After getting on track with last week’s win at the Giants, there’s no reason to believe it won’t continue the trend.

Atlanta Falcons plus-3.5 vs. Carolina Panthers Looks like a good spot for the Panthers, which are desperate for a win and getting the Falcons on a short week. But not willing to pay the premium price, as the products on the field indicate this point spread is at least a couple points high.

Arizona Cardinals minus-8 vs. Los Angeles Rams It’s a minor miracle that the Rams are 2-1 straight-up and against the spread behind a quarterback that’s played as poorly as Case Keenum, who’s second-to-last in the NFL with a 66 passer rating and 6.1 yards per attempt. They won’t be able to rely on defensive scores and special teams prowess every week.

Guesses (9-10)

Jacksonville Jaguars plus-2.5 vs. Indianapolis Colts in London The Colts have been better on offense, gaining 5.6 yards per play to the Jaguars’ 4.9 yards per play. But Jacksonville has been way better on defense, surrendering only 5 yards per play to Indianapolis’ 6.4 yards per play.

New Orleans Saints plus-4 at San Diego Chargers Hard to back any team going west after a Monday Night Football appearance, but the Saints are better coached and less injured. They also might be more motivated after a rough 0-3 start to the season that makes a victory here essential.

San Francisco 49ers plus-3 vs. Dallas Cowboys Rookies Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott have been outstanding, but not to the point that bettors should feel comfortable laying points on the road with them yet. The 49ers have lost by 19 points in each of the last two weeks, but consider the competition as the Seahawks and Panthers have represented the NFC in three straight Super Bowls.

New England Patriots minus-5.5 vs. Buffalo Bills More or less a straight gamble here, as CG Technology is the only sports book operator with a line given the uncertainty on the Patriots’ quarterback situation. But here’s to guessing Jimmy Garoppolo plays, and the line closes a little bit higher.

Chicago Bears plus-3 vs. Detroit Lions Many times, the neglected games on betting boards offer solid opportunity. Not here, as it’s hard to handicap what to expect from two already mediocre, and now severely beaten-up teams.

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.

Join the Discussion:

Check this out for a full explanation of our conversion to the LiveFyre commenting system and instructions on how to sign up for an account.

Full comments policy