Vegas Play of the Day: UNR vs. Iowa State

By Mike Grimala (contact)

Wednesday, March 15, 2017 | 5 p.m.

We’ve entered the third season of the annual South Point-lined Play of the Day competition, effective July 1.

Starting bankrolls have reset to $10,000, with the maximum bet being to win $1,000 and the minimum wager $300. Ray Brewer won the 2015-2016 season, after Taylor Bern prevailed in 2014-2015. Bern stepped away in the middle of the 2016-2017 season with a 16-12 record and $13,317 bankroll, with Mike Grimala taking his place.

UNR plus-220 on the money line vs. Iowa State, $500 to win $1,125:

The 12-5 upset is always a popular pick in NCAA pools, and 6.5-point underdog UNR is as good a bet as any to turn the trick and win this game outright. The Wolf Pack enter the tournament hot, having won their last nine games, and more importantly, they've got two frontcourt players who can match up physically with any tandem in the bracket in Cameron Oliver and Jordan Caroline (combined 30.6 points, 17.9 rebounds per game).

This game might not be decided in the paint, however. Iowa State has lived by the 3 all season, leading the Big 12 in attempts (25.1 per game) and accuracy (42.3 percent). That's why the Cyclones sport one of the most efficient offenses in the nation (1.004 points per possession, 16th in the nation), but this is a single-elimination tournament, and one bad day from beyond the arc could throw a giant wrench into ISU's well-oiled attack.

It just so happens that UNR has been among the best teams in the country this season at defending the 3-point line. Opponents hit at 30.7 percent against the Pack, ranking Eric Musselman's squad 13th nationally. If they strangle Iowa State's shooters, Oliver and Caroline will be there to control the rebounds and tilt the court in UNR's favor.

On offense, UNR relies on the 3-pointer just as much as Iowa State (24.8 attempts per game), so poor shooting could easily thwart any upset bid. But Iowa State isn't nearly as good at defending the arc, allowing opponents to connect at a rate of 34.8 percent (181st in the country), so I'm more confident in the Wolf Pack shooters getting open looks.

Iowa State is a good team, and the Cyclones are riding their own wave of momentum after winning the Big 12 Tournament. But the NCAA Tournament is about matchups, and this is not a good one for ISU. Look for UNR to match (or exceed) ISU's 3-point production and pull off the first big upset of the tournament.

Current Standings: Grimala (5-7, $9,500), Granger (12-14-1, $7,950), Keefer (38-34-2, $7,881), Brewer (25-26-1, $6,885)