NCAA Tournament by the odds: Vegas picks and preview of Saturday’s games

By Case Keefer (contact)

Saturday, March 17, 2018 | 2 a.m.

As the only double-digit seeds to pull outright upsets on the initial full day of the NCAA Tournament, Buffalo and Loyola-Chicago could become the always-celebrated Sweet 16 party crashers with another victory today.

It’s not an auspicious position to be sitting in based on recent tournaments, though. The round of 32 is where the potential darlings of March Madness have made like the Misfits' song and died off.

Over the last five years, double-digit seeds that pulled off an upset by the odds in the round of 64 are only 6-20 straight-up and 12-14 against the spread in their next games. Four of those six outright wins were by Xavier, UCLA, Stanford and Oregon — not exactly the traditional definition of a so-called “Cinderella team.”

That means 2013 was the last time an indisputable long-shot team reached the Sweet 16. Both Florida Gulf Coast and La Salle advanced that year.

The odds aren’t prohibitive against either the Bulls or the Ramblers breaking the streak today, as they’re both only 5.5-point underdogs against Kentucky and Tennessee, respectively. Will Talking Points side with either of them?

Read below to find out, as the blog continues to pick every NCAA Tournament game against the spread. The record after the first two days sits at 18-16-2. Lines are the best currently available in Las Vegas, and picks are listed in order of confidence.

No. 6 seed Houston plus-3.5 vs. No. 3 seed Michigan Before its run through the Big Ten conference tournament, Michigan would have likely been an underdog — or at least a pick’em — against Houston. The Cougars, with their rebounding prowess and stifling consistency, look like a team built to end a 10-game win streak that has left the Wolverines overvalued.

No. 5 seed Kentucky minus-5.5 vs. No. 13 seed Buffalo This has a lot do with the aforementioned history of similar matchups. Teams like the Bulls can use a hot shooting night to overcome the odds once — they were 55 percent from the floor and 50 percent from 3 in an 89-68 win over Arizona — but the athletic disparity usually catches up. And almost no team could offer as big of an athletic disparity as Kentucky.

No. 11 seed Loyola-Chicago plus-6 vs. No. 3 seed Tennessee The total of over/under 129.5 is the lowest on the board Saturday, and 14 fewer points than the average. That shows how slowly this game will be contested, and that style favors the Ramblers being able to hang around.

No. 9 seed Alabama plus-11 vs. No. 1 seed Villanova The Wildcats saw plenty of high-flying offenses in the Big East Conference, but few bear-down defenses. That makes it unfair to expect their offense to click as efficiently as normal to enable a blowout against the stingy Crimson Tide.

No. 1 seed Kansas minus-4.5 vs. No. 8 seed Seton Hall The Jayhawks are incredibly vulnerable with big man Udoka Azubukie still limited while nursing a knee injury, which would make this spread more than fair — under otherwise normal circumstances. Oddsmakers are rating this as a neutral-site matchup, however, and Kansas probably deserves a semi-home adjustment of a couple points with the lopsided fan support it has in Wichita.

No. 5 seed Ohio State plus-3.5 vs. No. 4 seed Gonzaga Gonzaga has been the most popular early bet on the board, which has kept this spread ever-so-slightly higher than where it should sit. Even though the Zags are the better team, the Buckeyes are too well-coached under Chris Holtmann to get blown out.

No. 2 seed Duke minus-9.5 vs. No. 7 seed Rhode Island Not quite enough points to entice a bet against the most talented team in the tournament. The Rams’ three-point barrage in a first-round win over Oklahoma was out of the ordinary for them, and unlikely to be repeated against the Blue Devils’ thriving zone defense.

No. 6 Florida plus-2 vs. No. 3 seed Texas Tech Despite outlasting Stephen F. Austin for a 70-60 win as an 11.5-point favorite, Texas Tech didn’t look absolved of its late-season struggles. Florida was much more impressive in a 77-62 massacre of Saint Bonaventure as a 6-point favorite. The single-game eye test is a highly-flawed methodology, but there’s little else to resort to with a spread this tight.

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.