Las Vegas Sun

March 28, 2024

College football by the odds: Vegas picks and preview of Week 12

Nick Saban

ASSOCIATED PRESS

Alabama head coach Nick Saban walks on the field before an NCAA college football game against LSU in Baton Rouge, La., Saturday, Nov. 3, 2018.

College football fans have spent the last few days complaining about the absence of marquee games on the Week 12 schedule.

Blame the SEC.

It’s hard to ever stage a momentous penultimate week of the regular season when more than half of the teams in the sport’s premier conference allocates the slate like the free space in Monopoly. There are three SEC games this week, with the other eight conference teams drawing into the Football Championship Subdivision ranks or the Football Bowl Subdivision’s dregs.

Put the moneylines on all eight of those games together, and the odds imply only a 44 percent chance that any of the teams lose. And even that might sound high, swayed by a pair of games that appear slightly more difficult than the programs probably expected when they were initially scheduled.

Kentucky is only a minus-700 (risking $7 to win $1) favorite against Middle Tennessee, while Texas A&M lays minus-900 against UAB.

The only thing that could save college football from such late-season lunacy is the crusade by Alabama coach Nick Saban and Auburn coach Gus Malzahn to expand the SEC schedule to nine games. Let’s hope it eventually comes through; there aren’t enough full college football weeks to waste one.

Talking Points has enjoyed the last few immensely and posted a season-best 36-20-1 against the spread record picking every game in week 11. That was the fourth straight winning week to bring the season record picking every widely lined weekend game to 280-276-10 — 30-24-1 on plays, 78-71-4 on leans and 172-171-5 on guesses.

Check below for picks on every Week 12 game. Picks are separated by conference, listed in rough order of confidence and labeled in three categories. Lines are the best currently available in Las Vegas on the chosen side.

ACC

Virginia plus-6 at Georgia Tech, over/under: 53.5. The Cavaliers are well-coached and defensively-disciplined — the exact characteristics best-suited to slow the Yellow Jackets’ triple option. Georgia Tech is coming off of a win to clinch bowl eligibility and going into a matchup with hated rival Georgia, so it’s certainly no guarantee to get it’s best effort, which is what would be needed to cover a number this high. Play: Virginia plus-6.

Duke plus-28.5 at Clemson, over/under: 57.5. Yes, Clemson has covered five straight but none of these teams were as strong as Duke by any advanced metric. And yet, the Blue Devils are getting more points than all of them aside from Louisville. The best time to bet against great teams is often when they’ve elevated to being regarded as unbeatable. Lean: Duke plus-28.5.

Pittsburgh minus-7 at Wake Forest, over/under: 61.5. Not enough points to entice taking a stand against Pittsburgh, which has covered in five straight and all but one ACC game. The Panthers’ running game is among the best in the nation with Qadree Ollison and Darrin Hall, and the Demon Deacons rank 119th in the nation in giving up 5.5 yards per rush. Guess: Pittsburgh minus-7.

Boston College minus-2 at Florida State, over/under: 49. Number would clearly be a couple points higher if both teams were playing under ideal circumstances. But they’re not, as Boston College is severely battered coming out of a 27-7 loss to Clemson and may play without both quarterback Anthony Brown and running back A.J. Dillon. Guess: Florida State plus-2.

North Carolina State minus-16.5 at Louisville, over/under: 63.5. Let the fade on Louisville, which has been the worst team to bet on in the nation, continue. The betting market hasn’t been able to account for just how poorly the Cardinals have played considering they’re 1-9 against the spread overall and have failed to cover by at least a touchdown in five straight games. Guess: NC State minus-16.5.

Miami minus-5 at Virginia Tech, over/under: 51. Both teams are in an absolute freefall, having combined not to cover in a single game since September. This could have been expected for a young Hokies’ squad, though. Miami’s lack of success is more perplexing as it’s still scored 108 more points than opponents on the year and seems to have seen every break going against it all year. Guess: Miami minus-5.

Big Ten

Northwestern pick’em at Minnesota, over/under: 47.5. Yes, Northwestern deserves all the praise for wrapping up the West Division title but all the close wins don’t bode well from a predictive standpoint. Against comparable schedules, the Wildcats and Golden Gophers have nearly identical point differentials — plus-6 for the former to minus-5 for the latter. Play: Minnesota pick’em.

Ohio State minus-14.5 at Maryland, over/under: 58.5. Goes without saying that this is a horrendous spot for the Buckeyes going into a season-defining game against Michigan next week. That’s secondary, however, to the fact that the Buckeyes are inflated coming out of their first cover since week 4 — a 26-6 win over Michigan State as 3.5-point favorites that was closer than the final score indicated. Lean: Maryland plus-14.5.

Iowa minus-14.5 at Illinois, over/under: 58.5. Buy low on the Hawkeyes, which have been unlucky to lose three straight games by six points or less. Their defensive front might be the best the Illini has seen and should halt a running game that’s racked up big numbers against lesser competition. Lean: Iowa minus-14.5.

Michigan State minus-2 at Nebraska, over/under: 49. Nebraska’s offense is one of the best-kept secrets in college football right now, as freshman quarterback Adrian Martinez has caught fire as the season winds down. The Cornhuskers have too much of an advantage on offense, gaining 6.4 yards per play to the Spartans’ 4.8, to pass up taking points. Guess: Nebraska plus-2.

Wisconsin plus-4.5 at Purdue, over/under: 52. Price looks about a point too high as these teams are remarkably evenly-matched. Purdue is No. 33 in Football Outsiders’ F/+ rankings; Wisconsin is No. 24 with nearly identical overall ratings. Guess: Wisconsin plus-4.5.

Penn State minus-28 at Rutgers, over/under: 49.5. Penn State coach James Franklin has a reputation for piling on points in uncompetitive games, and though the sample is small, his betting history supports it. When laying this many points, Franklin has covered in three of four games at Penn State. Guess: Penn State minus-28.

Indiana plus-28.5 at Michigan, over/under: 53.5. Hasn’t paid to pick against the Wolverines, but now that they comfortably control their destiny for a College Football Playoff and are going into a game at Ohio State, it’s unlikely they’re concerned with running up the score. Hoosiers also aren’t helpless enough to rule out a potential backdoor cover if they’re getting blown out late. Guess: Indiana plus-28.5.

Big 12

Iowa State plus-3 at Texas, over/under: 46. The Cyclones will field the best defense the Longhorns have seen all season, and play a deliberate offensive style that will also be capable of taking the home team out of their game. In the off-chance that this line creeps higher than a field goal, it would become a play. Lean: Iowa State plus-3.

Texas Tech minus-6 at Kansas State, over/under: 57. Between injuries, coaching controversies and general underachieving, Kansas State is a mess right now. The Wildcats held it together just enough to slip past archrival Kansas 21-17 as 9.5-point favorites last week, but might fall apart in the face of stronger opposition. Lean: Texas Tech minus-6.

TCU plus-2 at Baylor, over/under: 52.5. This is a bode of confidence in TCU coach Gary Patterson despite his team failing to cover in seven straight games. As long as the Horned Frogs haven’t quit on the season — and that seems unlikely with Patterson at the helm — then they’re better than the Bears. Lean: TCU plus-2.

Kansas plus-35.5 at Oklahoma, over/under: 68.5. Now that Kansas has dropped the only game it cared about down the stretch of the season, falling 21-17 to Kansas State as 10-point underdogs, hard to imagine it playing inspired with already-fired coach David Beatty patrolling the sidelines. Jayhawks don’t have enough pieces to contain Kyler Murray and Trey Sermon. Guess: Oklahoma minus-33.5.

West Virginia minus-4.5 at Oklahoma State, over/under: 73. Too jarring to see Oklahoma State getting 17.5 fewer points than it did last week in a home game against a comparable opponent in Oklahoma. Yes, the Cowboys nearly won in a 48-47 shootout but that was catching their offense on a good day. They’ve also been completely shut down against the likes of Kansas State and Texas Tech and remain to erratic to back at a deflated price. Guess: West Virginia minus-4.5.

Pac-12

Arizona State plus-3.5 at Oregon, over/under: 64. Perception is not always reality, as the prevailing logic is that Oregon is better all over the field. It’s Arizona State, however, that’s been more efficient on both offense and defense, and has a more proven head coach in Herm Edwards against Mario Cristobal. Play: Arizona State plus-3.5.

USC minus-3 at UCLA, over/under: 55. Happy to pay the increased minus-120 juice if it means backing the Trojans at only a field goal. USC has been more efficient on both sides of the ball, and even though coach Clay Helton is on his being fired, he’s well-liked by the players, which will be properly motivated to win a rivalry game regardless. Lean: USC minus-3.

Stanford minus-2 at California, over/under: 45. Neither the Cardinal nor the Golden Bears have deviated significantly from their preseason expectations, and yet this line was minus-7.5 in game of the year markets in September. A 5.5-point shift is too much, as it feels like the market has finally caught up to California after it’s covered in four straight. Lean: Stanford minus-2.

Arizona plus-10 at Washington State, over/under: 62.5. Arizona has gotten much better in covering in three straight, but it doesn’t pay to bet against Mike Leach in sports where the line looks reasonable. The Washington State coach has now gone 44-26 versus the number with the Cougars. Guess: Washington State minus-10.

Utah minus-7 at Colorado, over/under: 48. From a value standpoint, Colorado’s 5-0 straight-up, 4-1 against the spread start to the season was the worst thing that could happen to it. The Buffaloes’ power rating has been inflated ever since and may continue to be here as the Utes have been more efficient in every area and could be laying more points. Guess: Utah minus-7.

Oregon State plus-33.5 at Washington, over/under: 58.5. From a personnel standpoint, Washington should be able to name its score but it simply hasn’t lived up to expectations this season. The Huskies haven’t beaten a single FBS team by more than 28 points. Guess: Oregon State plus-33.5.

SEC

UAB plus-17 at Texas A&M, over/under: 45.5. This is the Blazers’ first game against a Power Five conference opponent since they restarted their program last year. They want to show the rest of the country what bettors have now known for two seasons — that they’re for real. UAB is 16-6-1 against the spread over the last two years and capable of giving Texas A&M all it can handle. Play: UAB plus-17.

Middle Tennessee plus-16 at Kentucky, over/under: 46.5. The Blue Raiders are a veteran laden group that won’t be content with going to Lexington, Ky., solely in order for the program to collect a paycheck. Kentucky has only scored more than 16 points once since the start of the October — and that was in a 34-17 loss to Georgia. Lean: Middle Tennessee plus-16.

Missouri minus-5.5 at Tennessee, over/under: 56.5. Take away last week’s results — a 24-7 Tennessee win over Kentucky as 5-point underdogs and a 33-28 Missouri escape against Vanderbilt as 13.5-point favorites — and the line on this game is over a touchdown. No reason to pay a premium on a team off of its best performance of the year. Lean: Missouri minus-5.5.

Ole Miss plus-3 at Vanderbilt, over/under: 67.5. The Commodores continue to be overvalued at Vanderbilt Stadium, where they haven’t covered in an SEC game since the 2016 season. The Rebels could easily be favored here given an offensive edge — they’re gaining 6.9 yards per play to the Commodores’ 5.7 — that far makes up for their defensive disadvantage — Vanderbilt has given up 5.8 yards per play to Mississippi’s 6.2 yards per play. Guess: Ole Miss plus-3.

Massachusetts plus-41.5 at Georgia, over/under: 65.5. The Minutemen’s roster chock full of experienced players will look at this game as the biggest opportunity of their college careers. The Bulldogs will look at it as a nuisance with all of their season goals to be determined in the games ahead. Guess: Massachusetts plus-41.5.

Liberty plus-28 at Auburn, over/under: 62. Nothing like a matchup against one of the three worst defenses in the nation, per S&P+, to take out a year’s worth of offensive frustrations. The Flames were a Football Championship Subdivision team last year and are unaccustomed to the level of athletes the Tigers field up and down the depth chart. Guess: Auburn minus-28.

Arkansas plus-20.5 at Mississippi State, over/under: 46.5. Arkansas’ offense has improved immensely throughout the season, but its revival looks overstated on paper as the Razorbacks have often racked up yards and points in garbage time. All of that may hit a snag this week against a Bulldogs team giving up only 4.3 yards per play against FBS teams despite having played one of the nation’s toughest schedules. Guess: Mississippi State minus-20.5.

Rice plus-42 at LSU, over/under: 53.5. LSU’s severe offensive hindrances won’t matter much against a completely helpless defense. Rice has lost by an average of 20 points per game this year against FBS competition, despite not playing any team remotely on LSU’s level. Guess: LSU minus-42.

AAC

South Florida plus-14 at Temple, over/under: 61.5. Hard to want to back South Florida right now considering its only cover in three straight blowout losses came when Cincinnati ran out the clock from the 1-yard line last week. Temple’s recent results have been the reverse, covering as many as eight in a row depending on the number against UCF, but three weeks ago, it would have been laying a touchdown at most in this spot. There are no bargains on either side anymore. Guess: South Florida plus-14.

Memphis minus-8 at SMU, over/under: 73. The Tigers are better than their 6-4 straight-up record suggests considering they’ve gone 0-2 in games decided by less than a touchdown. The Mustangs might be worse than their 5-5 straight-up record suggests as they’ve gone 2-1 in games decided by less than a touchdown and have experienced some of the best turnover luck in the nation. Guess: Memphis minus-8.

Tulsa plus-6 at Navy, over/under: 52.5. Must take points in a game between two sneakily horrendous teams from otherwise respectable programs. Makes it easier that action on the Midshipmen has seen this spread climb 1.5 points. Guess: Tulsa plus-6.

Connecticut plus-16.5 at East Carolina, over/under: 69.5. Can’t back the nation’s worst team, per the F/+ ratings, against a properly-motivated opponent. East Carolina has seen its season go sideways by bad turnover luck and a 1-4 record in games decided by less than a touchdown, and should relish a chance to hash out frustration. Guess: East Carolina minus-16.5.

Cincinnati plus-7 at Central Florida, over/under: 61. Perfect spread so no real opinion here, but pocketing the extra half-point in a belief that game could close back at its opening minus-7.5 price. Not sure the Bearcats have the offense to keep up with the Knights anyway and have learned not to doubt the home team now that they’re 14-7-1 against the spread over the last two years. Guess: Central Florida minus-7.

CUSA

Louisiana Tech minus-1.5 at Southern Miss, over/under: 47.5. Feels like the wrong team is favored, regardless of whether Southern Miss quarterback Jack Abraham returns from injury. The Eagles have the far better defense and have found ways to score without Abraham the last two weeks in covers against Marshall and UAB. Play: Southern Miss plus-1.5.

UTEP plus-7 at Western Kentucky, over/under: 47.5. UTEP has played better to end the season — going 1-4 straight-up but 3-2 against the spread since the start of October — as players buy into and acclimate to first-year coach Dana Dimel’s culture. Western Kentucky has fallen drastically — going 0-5 straight-up and against the spread in the same span — as players await the replacement for embattled coach Mike Sanford Jr. Lean: UTEP plus-7.

UTSA plus-27 at Marshall, over/under: 44.5. Marshall has played exceptionally well for a month now, with its only straight-up and against the spread loss coming in an unlucky 26-24 setback at Southern Miss as 3-point favorites. UTSA has only gotten worse over the last month, losing four straight with the only cover a 27-17 loss to Southern Miss as 16-point underdogs in a game where it was outgained by nearly 3 yards per play. Guess: Marshall minus-27.

Florida International minus-6 at Charlotte, over/under: 47.5. Number looks exactly right, but the Panthers might have a few things working in their advantage. For one, they have an offensive edge — which is more important than the defensive edge, which Charlotte possesses — and the more seasoned coach in Butch Jones. Guess: Florida International minus-6.

Independents

Syracuse plus-10 at Notre Dame, over/under: 65. Syracuse’s schedule leaves far too much to be desired considering mediocre North Carolina State is its biggest win of the season. The S&P+ ratings have the Orange’s schedule rated as the 72nd toughest in the nation — and that’s without an adjustment for getting to face Clemson with quarterback Trevor Lawrence injured for most of the game. Lean: Notre Dame minus-10.

New Mexico State plus-24 at BYU, over/under: 55. The Aggies recoverd on a bye week while the Cougars racked up something like 6,000 travel miles to go beat Massachusetts 35-16 as 14-point favorites. It’s the kind of trivial detail that only matters when being asked to lay a gigantic price. Guess: New Mexico State plus-24.

MAC

Bowling Green plus-7 at Akron, over/under: 50.5. Not under any circumstances is it tempting to ever lay points with Akron, which has one of the nation’s worst offenses in gaining 4.3 yards per play. The Zips have failed to cover in each of their four games as a favorite this season. Guess: Bowling Green plus-7.

MWC

Air Force plus-2.5 at Wyoming, over/under: 42.5. Falcons are undervalued on accord of going 1-4 in games decided by less than a touchdown this year. The Cowboys’ typically significant homefield advantage is also minimized with the Falcons used to the heightened elevation. Lean: Air Force plus-2.5.

San Diego State plus-13.5 at Fresno State, over/under: 42.5. Betting totals have been extremely low all season on both of these teams, but that hasn’t stopped them from combining to go under in 13 of 20 games. There aren’t going to be enough points scored in a game between two defensive-minded squads to merit a two-touchdown point spread. Lean: San Diego State plus-13.5.

Utah State minus-28 at Colorado State, over/under: 68.5. The Aggies haven’t hesitated to keep scoring in blowouts all season, but don’t expect that to be the case in Fort Collins, Colo. Look for Utah State’s primary objective to be getting out unscathed leading into next week’s Mountain Division-deciding game at Boise State. Guess: Colorado State plus-28.

UNR minus-14.5 at San Jose State, over/under: 59.5. Too high of a price for a team not accustomed to this level of expectations. The Wolf Pack haven’t given this many points in a conference road game in seven years, and haven’t covered a line this high in a conference road game since Colin Kaepernick was their quarterback. Guess: San Jose State plus-14.5.

Boise State minus-19.5 at New Mexico, over/under: 62.5. Not wanting to pay a premium on the Broncos off of their 24-17 upset victory at Fresno State. They’ve struggled with defensive issues at points of the season, and though the Lobos have their own troubles, they’ve been able to score with some consistency. Guess: New Mexico plus-19.5.

UNLV plus-6.5 at Hawaii, over/under: 69.5. Spot play on the Warriors, which finally got a week to recover after their exhaustive travel schedule. Situation is much more challenging for the Rebels, which are surely already gearing up for next week’s Fremont Cannon game if not also celebrating a massive 27-24 upset win over San Diego State last week. Guess: Hawaii minus-6.5.

SBC

UL Monroe plus-8 at Arkansas State, over/under: 68.5. Let’s not forget Arkansas State was a runaway favorite to win the Sun Belt Conference in the preseason, and the RedWolves aren’t out of the race yet despite a rough 1-3 straight-up stretch last month. They’ve begun to look more like the team expected at the beginning of the year with quarterback Justice Hansen regaining his stride in blowout wins over South Alabama and Coastal Carolina the last two weeks. Play: Arkansas State minus-8.

Texas State plus-23.5 at Troy, over/under: 47.5. The Trojans are almost surely peeking ahead to an East Division championship game with Appalachian State next week, and the Bobcats are just efficient enough to exploit that. They’ve got one of the better defenses in the conference and had covered four straight before losing 38-7 to Appalachian State last week. Lean: Texas State plus-23.5.

Georgia State plus-28 at Appalachian State, over/under: 54. Appalachian State sits at No. 25 in the nation in Football Outsiders’ F/+ ratings; Georgia State ranks No. 123. Translation: The number on this game almost can’t be high enough. Guess: Appalachian State minus-28.

Georgia Southern minus-7.5 at Coastal Carolina, over/under: 53.5. This line was forged earlier in the year when these two teams looked vastly different in terms of quality. That’s no longer been the case. In two straight losses both straight-up and against the spread, Georgia Southern has gotten outgained by more than 500 yards and 3 yards per play — even worse than fading Coastal Carolina in the same stretch. Guess; Coastal Carolina plus-7.5.

South Alabama plus-17 at Louisiana-Lafayette, over/under: 64.5. Rajun’ Cajuns must keep winning to secure place in the Sun Belt Championship Game, and it looks unlikely that the Panthers will provide much resistance. South Alabama has gotten outgained by at least 2.9 yards per play in each of the last three weeks. Guess: Louisiana-Lafayette minus-17.

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.

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