Las Vegas Sun

March 28, 2024

College football by the odds: Vegas picks and preview of Week 8

D'Andre Walker

ASSOCIATED PRESS

Georgia linebacker D’Andre Walker (15) watches the clock tick down on Georgia’s loss 36-16 loss to LSU during an NCAA college football game Saturday, Oct. 13, 2018, in Baton Rouge, La. Walker was injured earlier in the game.

Giants fell in Week 7 of the college football season.

The top three favorites to win the College Football Playoff — Alabama, Clemson and Ohio State — were spared but most of the teams surrounding them on betting boards weren’t as fortunate. Four of the other eight teams listed at 50-to-1 or below in the futures market at the Westgate Las Vegas Superbook — all of them ranked in the Associated Press poll’s top 25 — succumbed to outright upsets.

Combined probability indicated a 75 percent chance that either Georgia, Washington, Penn State or West Virginia would lose. Instead, all of them did as part of the wildest college football slate of the season thus far.

Overall, favored teams in the top 25 went 8-7 straight-up, 4-11 against the spread. A week like that is always going to benefit the sports books, as the betting public tends to back the best teams regardless of the circumstances.

Talking Points hopes to help gamblers strike back in Week 8. The series picking every game against the point spread has done well on designated plays (20-13 year to date) but it’s been drug down by grisly showings on leans (47-63-3) and guesses (92-112-4) to bring the total record to 159-188-7.

Check below for picks on every game, separated by conference, listed in rough confidence order and labeled in three confidence categories. Lines are the best currently available in Las Vegas on the chosen side.

ACC

Wake Forest plus-10.5 at Florida State, over/under: 60. Be careful assuming Florida State is back after a 2-1 straight-up and against the spread stretch. Wake Forest has a coaching edge with Dave Clawson, who’s gone 22-14 as an underdog with the Demon Deacons. Play: Wake Forest plus-10.5.

North Carolina plus-9 at Syracuse, over/under: 66.5. North Carolina came out of a bye week refreshed and energized last week, playing arguably its best game of the year in a 22-19 loss to Virginia Tech as 7-point underdogs. The same could be true of Syracuse this week as the Orange were able to cut into their injury list with their first break of the season. Guess: Syracuse minus-9.

Virginia plus-7 at Duke, over/under: 44.5. Buy signs are still on Duke, with the Blue Devils looking as efficient as ever with the return of quarterback Daniel Jones. The same can’t be said for Virginia, which is in a bad spot coming off of a big upset win over Miami where it was outgained by more than 2 yards per play. Guess: Duke minus-7.

North Carolina State plus-17 at Clemson, over/under: 56. The competition the Wolfpack have forged their 6-0 straight-up, 3-2 against the spread record versus leaves much to be desired. North Carolina State has played the 89th toughest scheduled in the nation, according to the S&P+ ratings, so it might be a shock to encounter a team as strong as Clemson. Guess: Clemson minus-17.

Big Ten

Michigan minus-7 at Michigan State, over/under: 40.5. Both teams are coming off of major wins, but they were not created equal. Michigan mauled Wisconsin, leading by double digits throughout nearly the entire second half and holding a near 1-yard per play edge. Michigan State, meanwhile, experienced good luck in recovering all five fumbles in a tight upset bid where it was outgained by 1.5 yards per play against Penn State. Lean: Michigan minus-7.

Northwestern minus-21 at Rutgers, over/under: 49. No one wants to bet Rutgers, but no one should want to bet Northwestern either. Not at this number. The Wildcats are completely one-dimensional on offense — gaining 2.2 yards per rushing attempt to rank second-to-last in the nation — and therefore should never lay a big number. Lean: Rutgers plus-21.

Minnesota plus-4 at Nebraska, over/under: 55.5. Hard to see why Nebraska should be favored by more than a field goal here, as Minnesota has at least shown flashes of being a competent team this season. Yes, the Gophers have gotten blown out in three straight but that’s a short-sighted view of their season as impressive wins over Fresno State and Miami (Ohio) also count. Guess: Minnesota plus-4.

Illinois plus-26 at Wisconsin, over/under: 58.5. Wisconsin come out of last week’s 38-13 beatdown at Michigan with more injuries than they have point-spread disappointments this season — and that’s saying something. The Badgers have been overvalued all year, going 1-5 against the spread and failing to cover by an average of 10 points per game. Guess: Illinois plus-26.

Maryland plus-10 at Iowa, over/under: 47. The Terrapins have suffered a pair of blowout defeats, to Michigan and Temple, but have built an impressive statistical profile regardless. They’ve gained 5.9 yards per play against Football Bowl Subdivision opponents — .2 more than the Hawkeyes — and given up only 4.5 yards per play — .1 more than the Hawkeyes. Guess: Maryland plus-10.

Ohio State minus-13 at Purdue, over/under: 68.5. Emotionally, it feels like Ohio State is due for a breakout in the form of a blowout against an overmatched team, and Purdue fits the bill. Intelligently, the Boilermakers’ statistical profile isn’t all that far removed from the Buckeyes’ and they get the bonus of playing at home in front of a raucous crowd. The best bettors put head above heart. Guess: Purdue plus-13.

Penn State minus-14.5 at Indiana, over/under: 61.5. The talent discrepancy is always giant in this series, and the Nittany Lions typically take advantage. They’ve yet to lose straight-up or against the spread to Indiana under coach James Franklin, winning by an average of more than 18 points per game in the four games. Guess: Penn State minus-14.5.

Big 12

Kansas plus-20 at Texas Tech, over/under: 59. The Red Raiders are incredibly banged-up coming out of a physical 17-14 upset win over TCU. The Jayhawks are refreshed from a bye week, and have quietly been competitive in almost every game this season. Lean: Kansas plus-20.

Oklahoma minus-8 at TCU, over/under: 61.5. Oklahoma’s 43-40 loss to Texas was on the fluky side considering the Sooners outgained the Longhorns by 2.5 yards per play and had in excess of a 90 percent postgame win expectancy by the S&P+ statistical model. Well-rested and stewing after a week off, now is not the time to fade what’s still one of the most talented teams in the nation. Guess: Oklahoma minus-8.

Pac-12

USC plus-7 at Utah, over/under: 48. Hard to hold a rough start too harshly against the Trojans considering they came into the season as one of the youngest teams in the nation. They appear to have gotten it together since a bye week including easy wins and covers over Colorado and Arizona the last two weeks, but the early struggles are still holding their power-rating back to create value. Lean: USC plus-7.

Colorado plus-15.5 at Washington, over/under: 49.5. Washington was unlucky in its overtime loss to Oregon last week — the Huskies outgained the Ducks by 1.6 yards per play — and has statistically posted a positive postgame win expectancy in both of its defeats this season. Colorado is in a vulnerable spot going into its toughest game of the season off of its first loss, a 31-20 defeat at USC. Lean: Washington minus-15.5.

California minus-7 at Oregon State, over/under: 58.5. California has failed to win or cover in each of its first three Pac-12 games, but so has Oregon State. It appears only the Golden Bears have been downgraded, as this spread would have been at least two touchdowns going into conference play. Lean: California minus-7.

Oregon plus-3 at Washington State, over/under: 67.5. Teams look evenly matched, so the Cougars getting the standard 3-point edge for homefield advantage appears fair on the surface. Martin Stadium will produce one of the best environments of the year Saturday night, however, and coupled with Washington State’s coaching edge, perhaps the Cougars deserved an extra half-point or so. Guess: Washington State minus-3.

Arizona plus-9.5 at UCLA, over/under: 57.5. Bruins deserve some positive adjustment in the market after breaking out in a 37-7 victory over California as 6.5-point underdogs last week, but boosting well beyond a touchdown here is overkill. The Bruins benefited from a plus-5 turnover margin against the Golden Bears that won’t repeat. Guess: Arizona plus-9.5.

SEC

Mississippi State plus-6.5 at LSU, over/under: 62.5. Forget these school’s reputations; Mississippi State has more talent at most positions on the field. The fact that the Bulldogs have two losses to the Tigers’ one also obscures the fact that they’ve been more efficient on both sides of the ball. Oh, and if that wasn’t enough, Mississippi State is coming off of a bye while LSU scored a momentous win over Georgia last week. Play: Mississippi State plus-6.5.

Vanderbilt plus-11.5 at Kentucky, over/under: 47. Look for big games on the ground from running back Benny Snell and quarterback Terry Wilson, as Vanderbilt is giving up 4.6 yards per rush attempt against FBS opponents. Kentucky still appears slightly undervalued considering it has the country’s third-best defense by S&P+. Lean: Kentucky minus-11.5.

Auburn minus-3.5 at Ole Miss, over/under: 62.5. Buying low on Auburn, which is too talented offensively to stay stagnant forever and still ranks second in the nation defensively by the S&P+ ratings. That being said, this was a side much easier to back at a field goal, or even minus-2.5, as the line initially opened. Guess: Auburn minus-3.5.

Tulsa plus-7 at Arkansas, over/under: 55.5. The Golden Hurricanes are a scrappy, yet ultimately uninspiring team with severe offensive limitations. Ceiling is much higher with Arkansas, which appears to have improved every week as part of a three-game covering streak that nearly included an outright upset over Ole Miss last week before allowing a touchdown in the final minute. Guess: Arkansas minus-7.

Memphis plus-9.5 at Missouri, over/under: 74. Much tougher call a couple days ago when the line opened as low as Missouri minus-7 offshore, but the addition of almost a whole field goal requires a look at the underdog. Memphis is too well-coached under Mike Norvell to lose focus after last week’s heartbreaking 31-30 loss to UCF as 5-point underdogs. Guess: Memphis plus-9.5.

Alabama minus-28.5 at Tennessee, over/under: 57.5. Prefer not to fade Alabama, which is power-rated as the best college football team in at least a decade, unless the spread is completely warped — and that doesn’t appear to be the case here. The Volunteers lost by 26 points to both Georgia and Florida, with Alabama representing a significant increase. Guess: Alabama minus-28.5.

AAC

Central Florida minus-21.5 at East Carolina, over/under: 64.5. Central Florida has been too far profitable in these situations to seriously consider taking the other side. The Knights are 8-3-1 against the spread when laying double digits over the last two years during their undefeated run. Guess: Central Florida minus-21.5.

SMU plus-6.5 at Tulane, over/under: 58. The Green Wave’s pitiful performance in a 37-21 loss at Cincinnati last week is a blessing, as it’s keeping this spread deflated. Tulane is much further along and talented in coach Willie Fritz’s third year than SMU stands in coach Sonny Dyke’s first season. Guess: Tulane minus-6.5.

Houston minus-11.5 at Navy, over/under: 60.5. Future first-round pick Ed Oliver and the Cougars are known for pressuring quarterbacks, but are even more efficient at stuffing run games. That’s bad news for the Midshipmen, which rank second in the nation in running on nearly 85 percent of their plays. Guess: Houston minus-11.5.

Cincinnati plus-3 at Temple, over/under: 48.5. A pure numbers play, as these teams are evenly-matched with the Bearcats at No. 41 in Football Outsiders’ F/+ ratings and the Owls at No. 42. Would therefore prefer to lay a field goal with the home team, but it’s so close that an extra half-point would likely shift the pick to the visitors. Guess: Temple minus-3.

Connecticut plus-34 at South Florida, over/under: 69. Connecticut is the worst team in the nation, but South Florida is the worst undefeated team in the nation. The Bulls are 6-0, but half of their wins have come by less than a touchdown, and if one had swung the other way, this line would likely be a few points shorter. Guess: Connecticut plus-34.

CUSA

North Texas plus-1.5 at UAB, over/under: 53.5. UAB has incredible defensive numbers, but is yet to see a single above-average offense. That will change Saturday as North Texas is led by one of the nation’s most underrated quarterbacks in junior Mason Fine, who’s averaging 8.2 yards per attempt with 16 touchdowns to one interception this season. Play: North Texas plus-1.5.

Florida Atlantic minus-3 at Marshall, over/under: 63.5. This is the rematch of the game from last year when Florida Atlantic coach Lane Kiffin jokingly tweeted that he didn’t want to cover, “because of too much rat poison.” This year, he might not have a choice as Marshall is the better team as long as freshman quarterback Isaiah Green plays. Unfortunately, Green is currently questionable to make this pick require a leap of faith. Lean: Marshall plus-3.

Rice plus-24 at Florida International, over/under: 53.5. These teams have endured divergent fortunes halfway through the season, but they came into the season similarly power-rated as two of the weaker teams in the country. It’s a little disarming to see the Golden Panthers suddenly expected to win games by more than three touchdowns. Lean: Rice plus-24.

UTEP plus-24 at Louisiana Tech, over/under: 48. Louisiana Tech has one of its weaker teams under coach Skip Holtz this season, while UTEP appears to have made strides under first-year coach Dana Dimel. The Roadrunners have lost by less than 10 points in each of their last three games. Guess: UTEP plus-24.

Charlotte plus-17 at Middle Tennessee, over/under: 48.5. This verges on too many points even if the Blue Raiders were fully healthy — and they’re not. Senior quarterback Brent Stockstill is practically their whole team, and questionable after leaving last week’s game with an ankle injury. Guess: Charlotte plus-17.

Old Dominion plus-5 at Western Kentucky, over/under: 55. Western Kentucky has the stronger overall roster, and it’s difficult to foresee it not bringing its best effort coming off of an embarrassing 40-14 loss at Charlotte as 9.5-point favorites. Old Dominion is on an even longer slide, losing three straight since its upset over Virginia Tech. Guess: Western Kentucky minus-5.

UTSA minus-17.5 at Southern Miss, over/under: 44. A curiously short spread considering how hard-pressed the Roadrunners have been to find offense. UTSA has only managed three points in each of its last two games, and rates last in the nation in gaining 3.7 yards per play. Guess: Southern Miss minus-17.5.

Independents

Coastal Carolina plus-3 at Massachusetts, over/under: 71.5. Reeks of an overreaction to Coastal Carolina getting blown out against UL-Monroe and Troy over the last two weeks. The Chanticleers had been more competitive than the Minutemen over the first month of the season. Lean: Coastal Carolina plus-3.

Georgia Southern minus-11.5 at New Mexico State, over/under: 55. Strange midseason trip for the Eagles going East to West for an afternoon kickoff against the Aggies, and they’ve paid the consequences in the past. Although they’ve won in both trips at New Mexico State, the home team also covered the spread in each contest by more than a touchdown. Guess: New Mexico State plus-11.5.

Miami (Ohio) plus-8 at Army, over/under: 48. This is a no-win situation for bettors, as they’re forced to back either an over-inflated Black Knights team coming off of two straight blowout wins or a RedHawks team that’s consistently struggled in close-games, especially on the road. Guess: Miami (Ohio) plus-8.

MAC

Eastern Michigan minus-3 at Ball State, over/under: 48. Don’t expect a letdown from the Eagles off of a big upset win over Toledo, as coach Chris Creighton criticized the performance afterwards and challenged his team coming into this week. Ball State has been vulnerable in the secondary, a problem against an Eastern Michigan team with two above-average quarterbacks. Lean: Eastern Michigan minus-3.

Buffalo pick’em at Toledo, over/under: 62. Prior-season performance has a place in the handicapping process even this late into the season but it shouldn’t be an overwhelming factor. And prior-season performance is the only case that can be made for the Rockets being in the same class as the Bulls, which have outplayed them in every area this year. Guess: Buffalo pick’em.

Bowling Green plus-17 at Ohio, over/under: 70. Sophomore quarterback Jarret Doege has apparently found his footing the last two weeks for the Falcons, as he’s breathed life into the offense en route to a pair of covers. Worst-case scenario, Doege gives Bowling Green the chance at a backdoor cover. Guess: Bowling Green plus-17.

Akron minus-5 at Kent State, over/under: 52. Can’t lay points on the road with a team that can’t score. The Zips are 125th in the nation in averaging 4.5 yards per play, even a step below the Golden Eagles’ troubling 4.7 yards per play. Guess: Kent State plus-5.

Western Michigan minus-4 at Central Michigan, over/under: 55. Broncos have the best offense in the MAC; Chippewas have the best defense in the MAC. Both have been helpless on the other side of the ball for the most part, but Central Michigan’s offense appeared to make strides in racking up nearly 400 yards in a 24-23 loss to Ball State last week. Guess: Central Michigan plus-4.

MWC

Air Force minus-10.5 at UNLV, over/under: 57.5. Two weeks ago, UNLV was shaping up to be around a touchdown favorite in this spot. Yes, the Rebels have given up a combined 109 points to New Mexico and Utah State and lost their quarterback since then but a 17-plus point move is too stark. Guess: UNLV plus-10.5.

Utah State minus-14.5 at Wyoming, over/under: 52. Oddsmakers still look a step behind the Aggies, which is nothing new for this season. Utah State is the only team in the nation standing at 6-0 against the spread. Guess: Utah State minus-14.5.

Colorado State plus-23 at Boise State, over/under: 63. Don’t buy into the Rams’ turnaround after two straight wins considering they came against downtrodden New Mexico and San Jose State by a combined 14 points. They lost by more than 30 points against the only two above-average teams they’ve played this season, Florida and Colorado. Guess: Boise State minus-23.

San Jose State plus-28 at San Diego State, over/under: 42.5. The Aztecs' offense is not constructed to blow opponents out. They haven’t scored more than 28 points this season, let alone beat a team that badly. San Jose State had shown signs of progress before a 52-3 loss to Army last week spiraled out of control quickly. Guess: San Jose State plus-28.

UNR plus-3 at Hawaii, over/under: 66.5. Hawaii quarterback Cole McDonald returned last week, but didn’t perform as well in a 49-23 loss to BYU as he did in three straight wins to start the season. The game should come easier against the Wolf Pack, which have gotten torched against almost every decent quarterback it’s faced this season. Guess: Hawaii minus-3.

Fresno State minus-13.5 at New Mexico, over/under: 52.5. The Bulldogs’ offense has been somewhat lethargic, but their defense has made up for it in not allowing a touchdown in two straight games. That’s a type of efficiency hard to maintain, especially considering Fresno State has been unsustainably strong in the red zone, and, if nothing else, New Mexico has a playmaker in junior quarterback Sheriron Jones. Guess: New Mexico plus-13.5.

SBC

Texas State plus-11 at UL-Monroe, over/under: 61.5. The very definition of an over-inflated number, as there’s no way the Warhawks would be laying double-digits if they hadn’t crushed Coastal Carolina last week. Don’t handicap based on a one-game sample, as the year on a whole is more telling and it says UL-Monroe might have the worst defense in the nation. Play: Texas State plus-11.

Louisiana-Lafayette plus-26 at Appalachian State, over/under: 68. Don’t like laying big numbers against teams with highly explosive offenses. The Rajun’ Cajuns will likely trail by four touchdowns at some point of the game, but they’ll keep trying to score and have the firepower to do so with an offense that ranks eighth in the nation in gaining 6.9 yards per play against FBS opponents. Guess: Lousiana-Lafayette plus-26.

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or [email protected]. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.

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