Las Vegas Sun

March 28, 2024

GOP prepares state for Bush campaign

The Bush-Cheney 2004 campaign rolled into town Monday on a wave of big-name Nevada politicians, unveiling a leadership team aimed at again securing the state for the GOP presidential candidate.

Although they did not have a specific answer to the lead question of the day -- when President Bush would appear in Nevada -- they promised he would be here "sooner rather than later" and pressed the Republican agenda during the news conference at Mandalay Bay.

Promising to highlight national policies the leaders said are popular with Nevadans -- and discounting the Yucca Mountain nuclear storage issue as one negative among a pile of positives -- the politicians said they'll spend the next 14 months telling the story of Bush's successes and leadership in ongoing issues such as the economy and homeland security.

"Whether it's an attack by terrorists, whether it's a recession, whether it's corporate scandal, our president has shown unwavering and strong leadership that is very important to the people of Nevada," said Ken Mehlman, national campaign manager for the Bush-Cheney ticket. "And the ultimate proof of that leadership is the group of people that has assembled here to help the president."

With that, Mehlman introduced Gov. Kenny Guinn, state Attorney General Brian Sandoval and Rep. Jon Porter, R-Nev.

Sandoval chairman

"Leadership" was the word of the day, setting the stage for a campaign to identify Bush as a president who, in the words of Sandoval, uses "courage and conviction" to confront pressing issues.

"President Bush leads our country by principle, by doing what is right and by insisting on solving tough problems and not just passing them on to the next generation," said Sandoval, who is chairman of the Nevada Bush-Cheney 2004 campaign.

"Whether protecting our homeland from terrorist attacks, strengthening our economy through tax incentives ... improving Nevada schools, making health care costs more affordable and furthering the compassionate agenda, this president is committed and focuses on results."

The campaign plan is not only to focus on Bush's leadership, but also his "compassionate conservative" message with programs such as No Child Left Behind, which Bush promoted Monday in a visit to Nashville that was followed by a $2,000 a plate fund-raiser. Under the law, students attending schools that need improvement must be given the opportunity to transfer to better public.

Better organized

Guinn, who was the campaign chairman for Bush-Cheney 2000, said this time around the Nevada group is better organized, a development shown by what he called the "diversity" at Monday's Las Vegas event.

Sandoval, the first Hispanic elected to a statewide office in Nevada, was only one of several minorities named on the list of people on the Bush-Cheney Nevada Leadership Team.

Luis Valera, a Las Vegas financial planner who ran for Assembly in 2002, said the support for Bush-Cheney reflected a growing sophistication among Hispanics. Like the rest of the country, he said, such factors as financial status play a larger role in voting patterns than knee-jerk party loyalty.

An estimated 400,000 Hispanics live in the state, about 300,000 in the Las Vegas area. As in other parts of the country, political experts say they could be the difference in a tight race.

Bush narrowly won Nevada's four electoral votes in the 2000 election, a fact driven home by Guinn as he recalled a CNN reporter calling him to confirm that the state had gone to Gore.

"I said, 'wait,' " Guinn said. "They called back at about 11 (p.m.) and announced Nevada had gone for Bush."

As close as the 2000 presidential election was, with Bush winning the state by taking 49 percent of the vote, Nevada has trended towards Republicans, with most of the top statewide and national offices going Republicans.

The Nevada secretary of state website shows 362,308 registered Democrats and 370,399 registered Republicans as of July 2003, the most recent numbers available. There were about 5,000 Libertarians and 134,000 nonpartisan voters.

The issue that observers think could hurt Bush the most in Southern Nevada is his stance on the proposed Yucca Mountain nuclear waste dump. During the campaign in 2000, Bush did not take a stance on the site, saying only that he would let sound science prevail. Months into his administration, he approved the site, a move Nevada Democrats have kept in the spotlight ever since.

Guinn said the state can oppose the site -- which it is doing in court -- and continue to support Bush. "At the end of the day the men and women of Nevada ... will look at the overall record," he said.

Adriana Martinez, the Nevada Democratic Party chairwoman, said that may be true. But Bush's overall record doesn't stack up well either, she said, and she thinks that the Yucca Mountain issue will work against the president.

"His team will be running from him on his (Yucca Mountain) decision," she predicted.

Mark Benoit, a political consultant who has worked mostly on Democratic campaigns, said. "If you had asked four months ago, I'd have said it would be very difficult for a Democrat to win."

Popularity waning

Now, he said, poll numbers are starting to show Bush's popularity waning as questions about the post-war situation in Iraq and the economy burn hotter.

"The press are now finally starting to question him," Benoit said. "Bush is fumbling with the answers now."

While the president has been solid in the polls, he has dropped recently, according to the Gallup organization. According to its website: "President Bush's job rating has settled down into the high 50s and low 60s as the rally effect that resulted from the Iraq war has faded. Bush's most recent job rating of 59 percent is slightly above Gallup's historical average approval rating of 56 percent for all presidents since Harry Truman, but is also below Bush's term average of 68 percent."

Ukniversity of Nevada, Las Vegas political science associate professor Jerry Simich said Bush could be helped by the influx of former California residents who retired to Nevada to escape taxes.

"They don't want to see what happened in California happen here," he said.

Ted Jelen, chairman of the UNLV political science department, said the economy could hurt Bush, although Nevada might not be hurting as much as the rest of the country. The unemployment rate has hovered around 5 percent in the state for the past couple of months, compared to an August unemployment rate nationally of 6.1 percent, according to statistics from the U.S. Department of Labor.

Yucca Mountain also could work against Bush if the environment becomes a national campaign issue, Jelen said.

"Bush's best bet for Nevada and the nation as a whole is if it's decided on the basis of foreign policy, so it depends on what types of issues emerge," he said.

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