Tuesday, Sept. 30, 2003 | 9:18 a.m.
PORTLAND, Maine -- Mainers are almost equally split on whether a casino should be allowed in the state, but strongly favor allowing slot machines at certain horse racing tracks, according to a poll released Monday.
Fifty percent of the poll respondents said they would vote in favor of allowing the Passamaquoddy and Penobscot Indian tribes to build a casino if part of the revenue is used for state education and municipal revenue sharing.
Forty-five percent said they opposed a casino, and 5 percent were undecided. Mainers will vote on the question in a Nov. 4 referendum.
The telephone survey of 600 people was conducted by Critical Insights, a polling company in Portland, between Sept. 13-26 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
MaryEllen FitzGerald, president of Critical Insights, said the election is likely to come down to undecided voters. "We're seeing a lot of advertising focused on moving that 5 percent one way or the other," she said.
Critical Insights conducts a so-called "tracking survey" each spring and fall that asks a number of questions involving national, state, political and economic issues.
The survey found that 37 percent of Mainers had a favorable opinion of President George W. Bush, down from 55 percent last spring.
Among Democratic presidential candidates, Howard Dean and John Kerry each received 18 percent of the vote from those polled who said they would vote for the Democratic Party in the 2004 election. Dick Gephardt got 12 percent, and Joe Lieberman received 11 percent.
Those surveyed said unemployment is the most important issue by far in the state, followed by the economy, taxation and health care issues.
Among questions in the upcoming election, the poll said 63 percent of Mainers were in favor of allowing slot machines at certain horse racing tracks, while 35 percent opposed them.
For the casino proposal, support was weakest in southern Maine -- where the casino is being proposed -- and strongest in northern Maine.
The poll said 41 percent of people in York and Cumberland counties favored a casino, with 54 percent opposed. In central and western Maine (Kennebec, Androscoggin, Franklin and Oxford counties), 50 percent were in favor of a casino and 45 percent against.
Fifty-six percent of poll participants along coastal Maine (Sagadahoc, Lincoln, Knox, Waldo, Hancock and Washington counties) said they would vote yes for a casino, and 39 percent opposed it. In Somerset, Piscataquis, Penobscot and Aroostook counties in the north, 61 percent supported a casino and 34 percent opposed it.
Fitzgerald said she was surprised the numbers are as close as they are, given that the pro-casino group Think About It has spent nearly twice as much as the anti-casino group Casinos No!.
"This election will be decided by who get the vote out," she said.
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