Nevada again will be presidential battleground, pundits say

Wed, May 21, 2008 (2 a.m.)

Illinois Sen. Barack Obama’s victory Tuesday in Oregon pushed him ever closer to winning the Democratic nomination, and now strategists and political observers are looking again at Nevada.

The reason: Come November and the final race to the White House, Nevada will be pretty much a must-win state.

As America was reminded in the 2000 presidential race, the presidency is not decided by who wins the popular vote, but by who collects the most electoral votes, awarded state by state.

The magic number to get elected is 270 electoral votes, and Nevada will contribute five of them. But those five could make or break the race.

Obama will face Arizona Sen. John McCain.

Paul Maslin, a Democratic pollster unaffiliated with a campaign, laid out the potential state-by-state scenarios both in a Sun interview and in an article he wrote for Salon.com.

His conclusion: Absent an Obama upset in a state such as Virginia or North Carolina, and assuming McCain wins Ohio, Obama must win Nevada, New Hampshire and New Mexico, or Nevada, New Mexico and Colorado.

In each successive recent election, the number of tightly competitive states that could tip the election has gotten smaller. And now voters in just a few states will essentially make the call on the next president.

Nevada is one of them, by virtue of Democrats’ having gained a 50,000-voter advantage over Republicans since the state voted in 2000 and 2004 for President George W. Bush.

Jennifer Duffy, an analyst for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, said Democrats should “stop obsessing about Ohio and figure out how to win Nevada. Look to states where Democrats have been building their party, like Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico.”

For Nevadans, this means a coming deluge of TV ads, candidate surrogates, and the candidates themselves, as well as interviews with voters who will claim to be undecided despite four or five months of presidential mania.

Each candidate has strengths and weaknesses here.

McCain has supported the proposed nuclear dump at Yucca Mountain and a ban on college sports betting. Obama is an urbanite who in the past has favored some forms of gun control, which is anathema to Nevada’s libertarian streak.

Crystal Benton, a spokeswoman for McCain, said the Arizona senator will connect with Nevada voters as a Westerner who understands water, land use and American Indian issues. (Actually, Nevada doesn’t have a significant Indian population.)

Benton said Obama is out of touch with Nevada, citing his past support for gun control as an example.

Shannon Gilson, a spokeswoman for Obama, pointed to the January caucus and said, “The issues that were of concern to Nevadans (during the caucus) were the issues of concern to all Americans: Strengthen the economy, provide all Americans affordable health care and bring the Iraq war to an end.”

Obama has a massive grass-roots organization with thousands of devoted volunteers, including the Culinary Union, well-trained in politics. The campaign knows the state well. Still, that was not enough to deliver victory in January. Maslin said he expects the campaign to leverage the state’s young population and bring it to the polls in hordes.

Duffy noted a key concern for Obama: He was beaten 2-1 in the caucus among Hispanic voters. Can he win over those voters against a candidate long thought a friend of Hispanics? (McCain is also the standard-bearer of a party now viewed by Hispanics as anti-immigrant because of some harsh rhetoric by party leaders.)

McCain, meanwhile, for all his natural advantages in Nevada, came in third in the Republican caucus here in January and has little organization.

Maslin summed up the state this way on Salon: “Obama has a wellspring of younger, unaffiliated voters to draw upon, but McCain does enjoy a closer proximity and a shared desert identity. This one should go down to the wire.”

Discussion: 15 comments so far…

By Johnathan_Abbinett

5/21/08 at 7:32 a.m.

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Solid analysis Patrick, and I'm betting you're right on - Nevada, again, will go right down to the wire and there will be a lot of nail biting!

It is absolutely critical that the Clinton supporters remember that we are Americans and Nevadans and Democrats FIRST - and throw their support behind Obama! We need everyone to do more than just say they support Obama and half-heartedly hold their nose and vote - we need every Democrat to commit to volunteering their time, and giving whatever money they can, to working smart and hard at electing the Democratic nominee...
...we absolutely can not let McCain win the White House!

Everyone respects McCain's military service and sacrifice as a former POW - but he comes from the old school (of stubborness and stupidy) that believes in such archaic slogans as "Kill 'Em All and Let God Sort It Out" and does not represent how most veterans view the world today!

And it's not just about serious concerns in Iraq, Iran and the larger international community - it's very much, also, about our national and domestic future - such as who McCain would attempt to appoint on the U.S. Supreme Court!

The Democrats, with the help of the Independents (and cross over Republicans) MUST win the White House in 2008!

Any Democrat that stays home is a coward, and any Democrat that votes for McCain is a traitor as far as I'm concerned - that's how we got stuck with Bush (twice) and ended up with the worse Governor in the history of our state!

Bottom line, it's all going to come down to our ability to grow the grass roots and GOTV (Get Out The Vote) - it always does in the end!

Maybe, just maybe, Nevada will come of age as a politically mature state - FINALLY!
By Bags

5/21/08 at 8:46 a.m.

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If McCain wants to win Nevada he would be wise to select Romney as VP. Romney got 51% of the republican vote compared to McCain's 13% (and Huckabee's 8%). Romney also helps in many of the key battleground states such as Colorado, Michigan, Minnesota, etc. This election is going to be about, first and foremost, the economy with even the war in Iraq being a distant 2nd or 3rd. McCain has to have someone who voters believe might really be able to help the economy and Romney is the perfect fit.
By jfnance32

5/21/08 at 8:56 a.m.

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Dear Democratic Pary,

Thank you so much for nominating Mr. Hussein. It is the only hope for our party. We deeply hope that Hussein will campaign every day in Nevada. If you need some funding for his campaign expenses in Nevada then please ask.

Sincerely,

Republican Party
By thebs

5/21/08 at 9:05 a.m.

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Stay classy, jfnance32.
By NVMakz

5/21/08 at 9:29 a.m.

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The Black Liberation Theologist - Social Communist Barry Obama is the latest in a long line of uber-libs nominated by the DemocRATz. McGovern, Carter (THE biggest failure POTUS in my lifetime), Mondale, Dukakis, Clinton (2nd biggest failure), Gore, Kerry and now Barry O.

As Barry responds with most political truth-telling with "you can't say that", he carries along the Democrat banner of socialism, fascism and their kissin' cousin = communism.

A political puppy, big ears and all..........
By texexnv

5/21/08 at 9:37 a.m.

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If one digs through all the horse manure of this everlasting, neverending circus, one can find some absolutely great comedy in the pile.

So some lounge down there ought so sign up this aspiring lizard, er...Newt, as he is hilarious! I refer to the Newt comparing McBush to Lincoln http://thinkprogress.org/2008/04/17/ging...

OK,...the act is somewhat old since the Newt also compared the Psycho-in-Chief to Lincoln but it's funnier than some guy balancing a spoon on his nose.
By NVMakz

5/21/08 at 9:45 a.m.

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McCain certainly isn't Lincoln, but he is a towering powerhouse of political gravitas compared to the political pup - Barry Obama.

Obama is the latest of the uber-libz that get the DemocRATz slobbering once every 4 years, but is destined to go down in defeat as America ignores his "you can't say / criticize / comment " etc - on "that".

Of course, "that" changes daily.................
By texexnv

5/21/08 at 10:09 a.m.

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Hmmm....., I see we have another comedy act auditioning here red rubber nose and all.

But the routine is so vaudvillian it is as old and tired as McBush.

This election is about inspiration, not desperation. And I've never seen the repugs soooo desperate to field a candidate that they can only get one from the old folks home.
By NVMakz

5/21/08 at 10:27 a.m.

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I understand it! A "style trumps substance" Presidential Cycle, yes......

Barry won't be able to find middle-America with a GPS and a seeing-eye dog. McCain has lived there for 20+ years.

Barry promises 90% of the A-A vote. Democrats already get that in the hip pockets.....

Hillary IS the better candidate. If we knew back around the NV Caucuses what we know now = B.O. (even his initials stink!) would be G.O.N.E... Women are the bigger demographic, lol........

Obama is the next Jimmy Carter except for one thing....

JC was the Governor of a State first.....

Barry's Big Ears!! I'm sure America's enemies would love to grab a hold of those.....
By texexnv

5/21/08 at 10:54 a.m.

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Oh....the big red rubber nose blinks on and off while repeating '70s one-liners. Now, how cute is that? Better wind that big funny watch; most of are already in another century here. Most of us anyway....
By NVMakz

5/21/08 at 11:01 a.m.

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Checkmate!
By thebs

5/21/08 at 11:11 a.m.

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Honk honk, NVMakz's vocabulary expands every time I post. I see he's picked up straw man, fascist, etc.... at least after I taught him how to spell it correctly.

If only he could keep his ideologies straight. Are we fascist? Communist? Socialist? Could he even define one of these without a Google search? For some reason I doubt it.
By texexnv

5/21/08 at 11:37 a.m.

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The big red rubber nose honks, too? Now, how cute is that? I think I'll pass on actually touching him until I get my hazmat suit on.
By texexnv

5/21/08 at 1:10 p.m.

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McBush now requesting donations of ExLax in lieu of cash http://bp0.blogger.com/_txEm77lsndY/SDRh... as Cindy has more money than he could ever spend.
By in_sider

5/22/08 at 11:39 a.m.

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I wonder what will happen when the Dems start hammering away on the fact McCain was the primary supporter of making betting on college sports illegal and being one of the biggest supporters of Yucca Mountain? With the registration advantage, competing interests on SW water rights and Yucca support I see some real problems for McCain. Romney may be able to swing voters but McCain isn't going to pick Romney. He needs to get a Southerner/evangelical to hold the South Fla. Gov. Christ is who I think he'll select. That won't help McCain too much in NV.

No question Obama's weakness are Hisipanics and rural independents. Barr might take the rural independents, weakening McCain but it will be a fight no-question.