Las Vegas Sun

March 29, 2024

ODDS ’N’ ENDS:

Minor conferences, and other factors in football bets

Sun Special Coverage

To find attractive betting spots, sports handicappers often gravitate toward teams and conferences that tend to play outside of the national media spotlight.

The high-profile leagues draw so much attention, and so much information on them becomes widely available, that the betting lines on their games end up being largely accurate, according to the handicappers’ mind-set.

This is one reason some of the more thought-provoking commentary from this weekend’s football betting symposium at Red Rock Resort concerned college football’s so-called minor conferences.

In addressing the outlook for the Western Athletic Conference, for instance, handicapper James Manos first acknowledged the obvious: Boise State remains the class of the conference.

“They might as well paint all the fields (in the WAC) blue and give everyone a Bronco-head logo,” Manos said at the seminar sponsored by Vegas Insider.

But gamblers should take a closer look at WAC rival Louisiana Tech, Manos said, a team he expects to find success against the point spread.

Manos described the trip that opposing teams must make to Tech’s home base of Ruston, La., using two words: boring and long. Manos considers Tech head coach Derek Dooley underrated, and he likes how the team plays “in the trenches.” Those factors could add up to value in the point spread for Tech bettors.

The Bulldogs are scheduled to face Boise State in a particularly favorable match, Manos said, in a home game Friday, Nov. 6. For the Broncos, it will be the third road game in four weeks, a stretch that includes a round trip to Hawaii. Manos likes Tech as a home underdog in the game.

“It could be a trip where the Broncos trip up,” Manos said.

In the same conference, Fresno State figures to be overvalued with regard to the spread, Manos said. He thinks Fresno, a dismal proposition against the point spread in recent seasons, is still living off its outdated reputation as a “smash-mouth” football team.

Bruce Marshall of the Gold Sheet suggested the gap in talent could be closing between some of the top teams in the Sun Belt Conference and teams in college football’s traditional powerhouse conferences. He said he’s high on Troy after the Trojans played well against LSU last year, covering the spread on the road, and said Arkansas State and Middle Tennessee State could be poised for breakout seasons.

In the Mountain West Conference, Manos is bullish on San Diego State, a team that returns 15 starters but won only two games last season. Manos believes the hiring of coach Brady Hoke and defensive coordinator Rocky Long will pay off for the Aztecs.

“They’re going to lose football games but they’re going to be more competitive than people think,” Manos said.

Manos likes the Aztecs as an underdog in one game in particular: hosting BYU, with San Diego State off a bye week, on Oct. 17. It’s a tough spot on the schedule for BYU, which plays TCU the following week in a game that could decide the Mountain West title.

TCU, though it has performed well as a big-favorite “bully” in recent seasons, figures to be overvalued in the betting line against some middling Mountain West opposition this season, Manos said.

Jimmy Rotunda, another handicapper on the college football panel, offered several predictions regarding the Big East Conference. He thinks Rutgers going “under” 8 1/2 regular-season victories is a solid bet, with the Scarlet Knights likely to have trouble against Cincinnati and Maryland early in the season.

Rotunda also recommended two “overs” from the Big East in season-wins wagering: South Florida over 8 victories, and West Virginia over 8 1/2.

Perhaps the most vocal support for any team expressed at the seminar came from handicapper Brian Edwards for Georgia Tech, a brand-name program competing in the Atlantic Coast Conference. Edwards, a fan of coach Paul Johnson and Tech’s “flexbone” offense, recommended plays on the Yellow Jackets to go “over” 8 1/2 regular-season victories and to win the ACC at odds in the range of 6 1/2-1.

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