Census estimate shows slight decline in Boulder City population

By Jinae West

Saturday, July 18, 2009 | 2:05 a.m.

According to recent estimates from the U.S. Census Bureau, Boulder City’s population fell from 14,821 in 2007 to 14,720 in 2008. But the latest county demographics brochure dated June 2009 estimates a population of 16,684.

State demographer Jeff Hardcastle said the discrepancy could be caused by a combination of factors, including where the data comes from.

Hardcastle said local governments use utility information to estimate population while the Census Bureau relies on housing unit numbers reported by local jurisdictions and occupancy rates from its 2000 census.

The numbers the Census Bureau estimates in Boulder City are based on the numbers it estimates for the county, Hardcastle said, but the number the county estimates for itself is 5.2 percent higher than what the Census Bureau estimates.

No matter how the numbers are estimated, the methods are subject to error. Because the census bases its estimates on information nearly a decade old, its data may be subject to underestimation, Hardcastle said. The county’s method can also be hit-and-miss, he said.

“Until we get the census done in 2010, it’s hard to tell,” he said. “That will be their report card at how accurate these estimates are.”

But Jon Wardlaw, assistant planning manager for Clark County, said the estimates the census provides in the years between decennial censuses are based on surveys and likely don’t reflect the most comprehensive information.

The Census Bureau calculates population two ways. Every 10 years, it conducts a census, or a complete count. The next one will be in 2010. In the interim, it prepares population estimates using surveys.

“They don’t count everybody, so that’s why they call it an estimate,” Wardlaw said. “In a way, we take a census of all the (land) parcels. It’s a different way to do it. We don’t do a census of people; we do a census of land use, and we estimate population from that.”

Wardlaw said the county works with municipal governments to inspect the assessor’s administrative records for the number of houses, town houses, apartments, RVs, and other types of housing in the county to compile a database. He said with the variables supplied, that data is calculated to produce a population estimate for each of the incorporated areas and for Clark County.

He added that the county and the Census Bureau calculate the vacancy rate differently, which would affect the estimates.

Boulder City Councilman Travis Chandler said it is possible the 2000 census overlooked Boulder Oaks, an RV resort that houses many residents, which could be skewing recent estimates from the Census Bureau.

Chandler said while population numbers are important to the city, the most vital aspect is its demographics. Boulder City, he said, promotes a slow-growth plan unlike other cities that heavily base their economies on strong population growth.

“We tend to be a more elderly community,” Chandler said. “Our senior population is expanding and unfortunately with that, higher mortality rates.”