Las Vegas Sun

March 29, 2024

ODDS ‘N’ ENDS:

Putting Cinderellas to work

How betting BCS busters can pay at the sports book

They’re being called Cinderellas, party crashers, BCS busters and, depending upon where your loyalties lie, possibly some unprintable terms.

Three teams from outside the six Bowl Championship Series — or “power” — conferences have been creating a buzz in college football this week.

Boise State, Texas Christian and the University of Houston are all undefeated. All are moving up in the rankings, with Boise at No. 5, TCU at No. 11 and Houston at No. 12 in the Associated Press Top 25 poll. All are threatening to capture some BCS recognition and even — with some breaks along the way — a potential berth in the national championship game scheduled for Jan. 7 in Pasadena, Calif.

No team from outside the BCS conferences has played for a national title in the 12-year history of the BCS system.

Two of the four undefeated teams ahead of Boise, the pride of the Western Athletic Conference, in the AP poll are guaranteed to suffer a loss because they’re scheduled to play each other: LSU hosts Florida on Oct. 10 and plays at Alabama on Nov. 7, and the remaining unbeatens would end up squaring off in the Southeastern Conference title game.

TCU, of the Mountain West, and Houston, of Conference USA, will likely need more help in the form of losses by the teams ahead of them in the polls. Houston has scored upset victories against Oklahoma State and Texas Tech. Oddly, in the coaches’ poll, Houston (No. 15) is behind Oklahoma State (No. 12). TCU is ranked No. 10 in the coaches’ poll.

We’ll leave the endless debates about the merits, or lack thereof, of the Byzantine BCS formula to all those mind-numbing nationally syndicated sports-talk shows.

In Las Vegas, we prefer a more pragmatic approach: How can we capitalize on any BCS quirks at the betting windows?

Houston remains the longest shot among the three possible party crashers, though potentially the most lucrative for bettors willing to take a flier on the Cougars. Houston is 300-1 to win the BCS championship at the Venetian sports book, according to odds updated Thursday. Houston is part of the “field,” or all others, at most other books, including the M Resort (where the field is 50-1), Station Casinos (30-1), Lucky’s sports books (50-1) and the Las Vegas Hilton (100-1). The teams included in any field bet vary by property, depending on which teams are listed on the board individually.

TCU, which opened before the season at 100-1 to win the title at Lucky’s and Stations, was still listed at 100-1 at Lucky’s this week. The odds on the Horned Frogs have been adjusted to 70-1 at Stations. TCU is 50-1 at the Hilton and the Venetian.

The odds on Boise, which opened at 125-1 at Lucky’s and 100-1 at Stations, have dropped more substantially. The line on Boise to win the title is now 12-1 at Stations, 20-1 at the Venetian, 50-1 at Lucky’s and 60-1 at the Hilton.

One school of thought states that Boise will have extra motivation to run up the score whenever it can in its remaining games to make a favorable impression on voters in the polls, regardless of how its counterparts near the top of the rankings perform.

Bettors who subscribe to that quite reasonable theory can grab the Broncos against several opponents at the Las Vegas Hilton in the Hilton’s special “college games of the year” wagering.

Boise State is listed as a 4 1/2-point favorite in its Oct. 14 game against Tulsa. The line opened at 5 1/2 at the Hilton when the games of the year were posted in the summer.

In its Oct. 24 game at Hawaii, Boise is favored by 13 1/2 points at the Hilton after opening as a 15-point favorite.

In its Nov. 27 game against UNR, Boise is favored by 23 1/2 points after opening as an 18-point favorite.

In a game of the year involving TCU, the Horned Frogs are listed at pick ’em against BYU on Oct. 24 after opening as a 3-point underdog.

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