Reassessing the spreads

By Jeff Haney

Saturday, Oct. 17, 2009 | 2 a.m.

Andy Iskoe, the veteran Las Vegas author and sports handicapper, has long espoused a technique in football betting that entails examining each team’s record against the point spread about one-quarter to one-half of the way into the season.

I used to appear as a guest on Lee Pete’s old Las Vegas sports-talk radio show and I recall Iskoe discussing this method on the program, circa the early part of this decade.

Iskoe has also written about his studies on the issue in his newsletter, “The Logical Approach.” (As he points out, this is just one letter away — but dead opposite — from “theological approach.”) Inspired by Iskoe’s work, I’ve often touched on the concept in this column.

As is the case with any sports handicapping tool, it’s just that: a tool. It doesn’t yield any “automatic” bets.

It does offer a clear vision of how various football teams are performing vis-a-vis the preseason and early-season expectations of oddsmakers and the betting marketplace. Bettors can use it to analyze the point spreads and matchups in upcoming games.

Three NFL teams are undefeated against the spread this season. The Denver Broncos, atop the AFC West at 5-0, are also 5-0 against the betting number — including three straight-up victories as an underdog. The New Orleans Saints have won and covered in each of their four games. The New York Giants are 4-0-1 against the spread.

(Bettors might have graded the Giants’ season-opening, 6-point victory against Washington as a win or a loss against the spread. The line ranged from 5 1/2 to 6 1/2 points.)

Indianapolis, Minnesota and San Francisco have also exceeded expectations, each compiling a 4-1 mark against the point spread.

The Carolina Panthers lead the futility derby with a record of 0-4 against the spread. Five teams are limping along with 1-4 records against the number: Kansas City, Pittsburgh, St. Louis, Tampa Bay and Tennessee.

Of the teams mentioned, the Colts and 49ers have a bye this week. Some of the others are mixed and matched in games that offer intriguing point-spread dynamics.

The Broncos, for example, visit San Diego on Monday night. When the sports book at the M Resort posted lines on every NFL game before the start of the regular season, its oddsmakers installed the Chargers as an 8 1/2-point favorite. Lucky’s sports books, which also hung numbers on every game before the season, had the Chargers at minus 9 against Denver. Now the Chargers are favored by just 3 1/2 throughout Las Vegas.

This is not to suggest the original lines at Lucky’s and the M were “bad” numbers. They were probably just right at the time. The adjustment reflects how well the Broncos have performed against expectations.

Two of the NFL’s “overachievers,” the Giants and Saints, clash Sunday in New Orleans. Both Lucky’s and the M had New Orleans as a 1-point favorite before the season. The current Las Vegas line stands at New Orleans minus 3 — with a premium as high as minus 130 on the Saints, suggesting the number surely isn’t going to 2 1/2, though it could hit 3 1/2 at some joints. A pure numbers play based on this analysis would suggest a bet on New York plus 3 1/2 if it becomes available.

The line on the Vikings’ game against Baltimore has been adjusted only slightly, from minus 2 1/2 in the preseason to 3.

Among the NFL ATS also-rans, one game stands out on this week’s schedule: Cleveland at Pittsburgh.

The early line had the Steelers favored by 8 1/2 (the M) or 9 (Lucky’s). Despite the Steelers’ poor showing against the spread, they are now favored by 14 points in Las Vegas.

The reason for the big line move, evidently, is that everyone “knows” how bad the Browns (2-3 ATS) are.

For instance, even Rolling Stone magazine — better known for its sharp analysis of Lady Gaga & Co. — has a column in its latest issue devoted to the Browns’ ineptitude. The author suggests Cleveland is “perhaps the most (expletive) franchise in all of sports right now.”

Some stock market investors follow a theory that states when news on a particular issue jumps from the business section to the front page, it’s time to make a bet on the company involved (or against it, depending on the situation).

Likewise, when the topic of a professional football team’s dismal fortunes leaves the realm of sports and becomes part of the cultural zeitgeist, perhaps it’s time to take a contrarian approach at the betting window.

All of this suggests a play on Cleveland plus 14 in the AFC North divisional showdown.