Predicting the winner of clogged GOP Senate race

By Jon Ralston

Sunday, June 6, 2010 | 2 a.m.

After all the chickens have come home to roost, depriving Archon Corp. of some of its equity, and after all the Scientology lampooning has been exhausted, giving Tom Cruise an improbable cameo in the Nevada Senate race, it comes down to this:

Is the third time the charm for Sharron Angle, who has come agonizingly close to winning two high-profile races, or is she a candidate who will always be a bridesmaid, never attracting quite enough voter ardor to be the bride?

In all the years I have been hewing to this foolish tradition of predicting election outcomes the Sunday before Election Day, this is one of the more difficult. And it shouldn’t have been so.

The consensus among national and local Republicans, and a pundit or two, was that Sue Lowden was easily at the top of a second-tier field of GOP hopefuls and would be formidable against a vulnerable Harry Reid. But something happened on the path to the anointment: Lowden bartered away her front-runner status by trading her slick, TV-anchor-trained persona for a frivolous, unprepared dilettante who couldn’t get out of her own way.

It’s not just about chickens for health care, although her stubborn refusal to kill what should have been a two-day story and instead allow it to be become a national sensation, was one of the worst gaffes I have seen in a major campaign. But her dithering on the Civil Rights Act and her bizarre take on climate change — among other warning signs — showed the former anchorwoman was not ready for her close-up.

So as national Republicans called into the state, surely with expletive-filled tirades, to discern what was happening and to try to stop her free-fall, the Tea Party Express and Club for Growth catapulted Angle from a distant third place to serendipitous front-runner status. She could never have done this on her own — Angle has never been able to raise enough money to pay for the kind of campaign infrastructure and get-out-the-vote operation Lowden bought. But she almost toppled Dean Heller in a congressional race and Bill Raggio in a state Senate contest because of her core support and, in the Heller battle, because of the Club for Growth’s checkbook.

If Angle wins, it will be for two reasons: Lowden opened the door enough and outside forces pushed her through the aperture.

The untold story of this Senate race is that Danny Tarkanian probably has executed the best campaign. Yes, he has only been competitive because of his famous last name. But he surrounded himself with some folks who understood a couple of things. First, they knew early on that portraying Lowden as the Establishment candidate could be very damaging in a year in which incumbents, or pseudo-incumbents, are anathema to voters. Second, he latched onto the illegal immigration issue — cynical and disingenuous though it may have been — and knew it was a near-90 percent hot button with GOP primary voters.

Add in Little Tark’s unmatchable work ethic and he might have been the surprise winner (perhaps he still will be) instead of the odd man out because of Lowden’s deep pockets and Angle’s outside support.

Which brings me to my prediction. All the usual caveats apply — anything can happen in low turnout elections and this is an inherently risky task. But like Tennyson’s Light Brigade, I have no choice but to charge forward, hoping not to meet the valley of death but to match my previous oracular proficiency.

Beyond the tortured punditry above, my final call comes after watching so much momentum change in the past few weeks and finding it hard to believe Angle’s wacky history, highlighted by Lowden’s ads, can turn off enough voters now. And I can do the math, too: Even though Lowden may have gotten out the vote in the previous fortnight, after Election Day, rural and Northern Nevada will make up half the electoral universe and will be just enough to put Angle over the top:

Angle: 32 percent

Lowden: 30 percent

Tarkanian: 27 percent

Chad Christensen: 4 percent

John Chachas: 3 percent

Others: 2 percent

None of these candidates: 2 percent

The question, of course, is whether the real winner of this Republican Senate primary is not Sharron Angle nor Sue Lowden nor Danny Tarkanian, but the man smiling on the sidelines as this slow-motion seppuku has occurred: Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid.

Whether he is presented with an often-marginalized Angle, a much-tarnished Lowden or a baggage-laden Tarkanian, Reid must be the happiest guy in the country with a 38 percent approval rating.

Let’s see how long his joy lasts.