Analysis: Five programs a proactive Mountain West Conference should be looking at

By Ryan Greene

Friday, June 11, 2010 | 2:30 a.m.

The first domino has fallen.

Now, expect several more to follow.

The latter portion of this week has been peppered by news that the Big 12 Conference could be on life support.

Nebraska appears headed to the Big Ten. Colorado on Thursday announced that it has accepted an invitation to join the Pac-10 and could soon be reunited with former Big 12 constituents Texas, Texas Tech, Texas A&M, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State, forming the nation's first true "super-conference."

Then there's the Mountain West.

In a press conference to conclude the summer meetings of the league's board of directors and university presidents Monday in Jackson Hole, Wyo., commissioner Craig Thompson said the decision was not to expand ... yet.

Rumors still swirl around the topic, Thompson said he could organize a conference call at a moment's notice any time soon and the world of college athletics already is shifting around the nine-member league.

Thompson said multiple times that the league's approach will be both reactive and proactive.

Well, here is a chance to be both, before some of the so-called bigger conferences come and try to eat up pieces of the MWC before the league can grow itself.

It wouldn't hurt at this point to discuss potential invites and then hand them out. What's the worst that could happen? They say no.

With all of that said, here are five schools that the Mountain West should be considering as the landscape rapidly changes.

Boise State

Current conference: Western Athletic

Why it makes sense for Boise State: The Broncos have established themselves without question as having the top football program from outside of the six conferences with automatic Bowl Championship Series bids. They've been to two BCS games, won both and are sick of the "cute little brother" tag in the college football family.

The next step is to compete for national championships, and the best way to do that is to somehow earn an automatic BCS bid. That means a change of conferences, away from the all-too-winnable WAC. And, don't forget, all of this change around the country over the last couple of days largely is tied to football.

Why it makes sense for the MWC: The Mountain West has some BCS success stories of its own between Utah and TCU, plus some other nice programs that have grabbed national attention, such as BYU and Air Force.

In order to get an automatic bid, the MWC has to grab more of them. In so many ways, Boise State makes perfect sense.

To boot, the geography of it works.

The likelihood of it happening: Pretty strong. If the Mountain West doesn't offer Boise State an invite before the school's July 1 deadline to notify the WAC of its intentions, Thompson could find himself in the face of some hefty criticism.

Fresno State

Current conference: Western Athletic

Why it makes sense for Fresno State: Pat Hill has quietly run another stellar football program in the college football shadows for the last 13 years. He's 100-66, has posted 10 winning seasons and made 10 bowl appearances. Of course, a defection from the WAC might be contingent on Boise State leaving, because if the Broncos are gone, the WAC's luster as a football league is all but gone.

Why it makes sense for the MWC: Adding quality, plain and simple. Plus, the athletic department has more to offer. Don't forget, Fresno State won a College World Series title in 2008.

The kicker? If this is all about drawing in TV revenue, Fresno is the No. 55 television market in the country. That may not sound impressive, but it's not too far behind Las Vegas, which is No. 42.

The likelihood of it happening: Pretty slim. It might be a bit far-fetched for this summer.

Nevada-Reno

Current conference: Western Athletic

Why it makes sense for UNR: As another domino that could fall if Boise State eventually leaves for the Mountain West pastures, this would just make sense for UNR. A good football program, a pretty good basketball program, relatively competitive all-around and, again, a great geographic option.

Why it makes sense for the MWC: For argument's sake, let's say the Mountain West gets Boise State and Fresno State first.

This move would help the league corner the market on quality West Coast football programs not affiliated with the Pac-10 (or whatever it will be called). Also, this would bring in a longtime in-state rival of one of the current league members — UNLV. It can't be underestimated how much the MWC really could use another good dose of bad blood and tradition in the ranks.

The likelihood of it happening: Again, pretty out there for right now. But if Boise State hops on board eventually, who knows?

Kansas State

Current conference: Big 12

Why it makes sense for Kansas State: If the Big 12 crumbles into a big pile of ash like it appears to be headed toward, Kansas State is a prime option here and someone the Mountain West should contact immediately.

Since the football program had its incredible run from out of nowhere throughout the 1990s and early 2000s, it has struggled to get back, even going as far as to hire back the coach responsible for that meteoric rise — Bill Snyder — at the age of 70.

It got to the point where K-State was out of its league in football in the Big 12 in recent years, and the Mountain West would be a fitting place for the Wildcats to again become bowl-game stalwarts and, well, relevant.

Why it makes sense for the MWC: Aside from having a good, name-brand football program thrown into the mix that has been to a BCS game before and won a Big 12 title, this also would be huge for the league's basketball profile.

K-State ran to the Elite Eight last year under third-year coach Frank Martin and hardly lost anyone. He's consistently getting players and is building a powerhouse in tiny Manhattan. Everyone struggling for respect in the league on the hardwood — UNLV, New Mexico, San Diego State, BYU, etc. — gets a big boost if this happens, as the Wildcats ranked seventh in RPI this past season. The Mountain West's highest team was BYU at No. 10, followed by no one until No. 39 (UNLV).

Want to talk money? This could be big from a TV revenue standpoint, as you could have major pull in Kansas City, which is the nation's No. 31 market. The league could also corner Wichita — another hotbed for K-State alums and fans — which checks in at No. 69.

The likelihood of it happening: Right now, it might be a 50-50 chance. Kansas is in no way tied to Kansas State, so if KU took a spot in, say, the SEC or Big East, K-State would have to then look at the Mountain West as, potentially, its best option.

Kansas

Current conference: Big 12

Why it makes sense for Kansas: It likely does only if Kansas is left without an invitation to another current major conference, which appears to be an outside possibility.

For the sake of this analysis, we'll say that KU is completely abandoned.

College-basketball purists are sure to look at this as a major disservice to one of the five top programs in the country. But, remember, this realignment has nothing to do with basketball, really. It's about the earning potential that football possesses.

KU has some of that. Don't forget, the Jayhawks went 12-1 in 2007 and capped off the season with a win in the 2008 Orange Bowl. Since then, they've had a pair of so-so campaigns and a coaching change, but the potential is still there.

However, like K-State, KU was out of its league in football in the Big 12. The year the Jayhawks went 12-1, they didn't have to play Big 12 South powers Texas, Texas Tech and Oklahoma. If KU wants to maintain a solid, consistent football product, the Mountain West has to be looked at as a viable option.

The key, though, would be to sell Kansas on why it works for the school's cash-cow sport — men's hoops.

Why it makes sense for the MWC: How does it not? It would be a home run in every possible way, mostly by adding a top-flight basketball program to a league clamoring for legitimacy in the eyes of the nation. It's another pipeline into top TV markets, with strong KU alumni bases in places such as Dallas, St. Louis and Chicago.

The likelihood of it happening: If Kansas State is a 50-50, you'd have to say that Kansas is probably a 30-70 right now. The main reason is that Kansas's basketball program might be too much for, say, the Big East to ignore. If KU is left out there as a free agent, it won't be easy for the MWC to land it.

The sticking point more than likely would be the Mountain West's TV deal, which all but phases ESPN out of the picture. As it stands right now, KU plays on ESPN almost once a week, especially during conference play.

If KU came to the MWC, you'd have to assume that it would beef up its non-conference scheduling to keep pace with the other elites out there, and that's where a different TV deal would have to be in place.

It probably wouldn't be a very popular move — not right away, at least — with Kansas's fan base, which dedicates about 90 percent of its collective loyalty to basketball.