What a read on early voting tells us

By Anjeanette Damon

Sunday, Oct. 31, 2010 | 2 a.m.

For those restless souls who can’t wait until election night to learn who won, early voting turnout provides some tea leaves to read.

Sure, it can get a little dense. But consider this: About 60 percent of voting has occurred.

That means, to campaigns in particular, early voting data is more than just fodder for who’s-going-to-win parlor games. For Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid and his Republican rival Sharron Angle, it’s a running total of the support needed to get to that all important “win number.”

“The parties look at it like putting votes in the bank,” said Jennifer Duffy, senior editor of the Cook Political Report. “It helps them know what they need to do on Election Day.”

So how are political observers reading those tea leaves?

I’ll answer that, but first a caveat: The partisan breakdown of who has made it to the polls doesn’t tell you which candidates are ahead in actual voting. To state the obvious, the fact that 22,830 more Democrats have turned out in Clark County doesn’t mean that Reid has 22,830 more votes than Angle.

Caveats aside, here are three ways observers are reading early voting numbers.

Reading No. 1: Republicans are poised to sweep the election.

It’s mostly Republicans saying this. But they’ve got some numbers to back it up.

In terms of raw numbers, more Democrats have voted than Republicans. (In the urban areas, about 20,000 more Democrats voted than Republicans. A partisan breakdown of rural voters won’t be available until Monday.)

But the GOP is turning out a greater percentage of its registered voters, which could be an indication of Republican enthusiasm.

Also playing into the Republican reading is the fact rural voters — the vast majority of whom belong to the GOP — turned out en masse during early voting. That’s not usually their style. Observers say this also shows enthusiasm is driving Republicans throughout the state.

Reading No. 2: Democrats are holding off the Republican wave.

Democrats are saying this. But like Republicans, they’ve got numbers to back it up.

Sure Republicans are turning out a greater percentage of their voters, but Democrats have more voters. And they’ve got the operation to deliver them to the polls.

“The Republicans are energized per se, but didn’t make their piece of the pie any bigger,” said David Damore, a political scientist at UNLV.

Democrats also have more paid operatives combing the state for supporters. Early voting gives their machine 14 days to work before Election Day.

So far, Democrats have succeeded in posting higher overall numbers than Republicans. Then again, they usually do and that doesn’t always mean they win.

Reading No. 3: It’s going to be a tossup.

The raw early voting numbers also support an argument that this will be close. Democrats had just a 7-point edge over Republicans in early voting in the urban areas. That margin will shrink once rural turnout is factored in.

Consider too that nearly 16 percent of registered voters are nonpartisan, and it’s anyone’s guess how they are voting.

It’s also difficult to read the geographic breakdown of the votes.

Usually, Democratic candidates must post a substantial lead in population-heavy Clark County to blunt determined Republican turnout in rural counties and the somewhat less determined Republican turnout in Washoe County.

But, thanks to that Democratic organization, Washoe County is no longer a reliable source of Republican turnout. Obama won Washoe by 12 percentage points in 2008. And Democrats have kept voter registration in that county just about even with Republicans.

So even if Democrats don’t have the double-digit turnout edge in Clark County that is typically necessary for a Democrat to win the state, the vote in Washoe could blunt that.

Bad news for Democrats, though. Republicans in Washoe County had a five-point turnout advantage over Democrats at the close of early voting Friday. But, (yes, another caveat) with some leading Republicans in Washoe County endorsing Reid, observers predict Angle might have a problem with her hometown base.

“It’s definitely going to be close, once it’s all said and done,” Damore said.