The endgame is in sight in Carson, but no end is

By Jon Ralston

Friday, April 29, 2011 | 2:01 a.m.

Scenes from a Legislature, more than two-thirds done and with none of the major issues close to resolution:

• Where have you gone, Bill Raggio, a Legislature cries … One insider was lamenting this week about the lack of any ability for major deals to be made without the likes of the legendary Raggio (you know he’s a legend because his upcoming biography is 672 pages and that may only be a Manchesterian Vol. 1) and his fellow legend Joe Dini, the former Assembly speaker. This lamentation I have heard for several sessions — no certainty about deals as the process has become corrupted by invertebrates and infected by — horror of horrors, too many newcomers — is at once hollow and true.

Some of the rookies are quite impressive and ask better questions than many of the veterans. But term limits have taken the expected toll and, despite their denials, the two Democrats leading the Legislature — Steven Horsford and John Oceguera — are not in sync and may not be able to hold their caucuses.

“It was better when the NRA ran the building,” the nongaming insider said, wryly referring to the Nevada Resort Association. Yes, kind of like the wistful plaint about how much better things were when the mob ran Vegas …

• The endgame cometh, but when will it goeth? Once the Economic Forum gives us good news next week — more found money! — and Gov. Brian Sandoval announces he will put it into education, the Democrats have to put up or shut up with a tax plan. What many often forget about Nevada is this is an exceedingly strong — perhaps excessively strong — executive branch state and the governor has so many powers over lawmakers — for instance, only he can call special sessions — that they will soon (five weeks from Monday) be in the position of having to go home to tell their constituents they couldn’t pass a budget. I was quite bemused the other night when one Democratic leader asked me how the GOP legislators were going to get out of the box they had put themselves in by supporting the governor’s budget.

If you want to know the problem with Session ’11, it is in that question.

• Let the voters decide: There is some chatter in the building about simply allowing the Sandoval budget to go through and simply put a tax plan on the ballot, which would be difficult for the governor to oppose. So after a session in which they could not find a way to do their jobs, they will punt to the ballot?

If it happens, it will be all too fitting.

The more interesting question: Who will try to sell the tax package during a presidential year in which no one will want to take a position on a tax package?

• The subject only insiders care about: If you are a normal human being — i.e. someone not interested in politics 24/7 — you hear the word “redistricting” and your eyes glaze over or you turn to the sports or comics section. But stick with me. I promise it will be worth your while.

Ten years ago, the redistricting fight in the capital was mostly over a third congressional district and we need “The Jon Porter Special Session” to create one for the future congressman. This year, though, so many other issues are in play that will affect the future of the state: Three open seats, including a new one. To expand or not expand the Legislature. Creating a Hispanic congressional district or not, with a Hispanic governor with a veto pen. A Democratic Legislature and a Republican governor. And, of course, a state Supreme Court that may become the de facto Legislative Building by July on this and other issues.

• Don’t let the sun go down on me: I asked Sandoval about this speculation or wishful thinking among some folks that if the Democrats and Republicans agree to lift the tax sunsets, he will not veto that and just allow it to become law. His predecessor, Jim Gibbons, pulled such a stunt with the room tax increase — and that was in his budget.

Judging by the governor’s reaction — something between scoffing at the notion and frustration “that I have to keep saying it” — I’d advise any Democrats thinking that is an option to come up with another plan.

They have another plan, right?

• Setting priorities: The Democrats may not have thrown up the white flag, at least not publicly. But I am starting to raise mine. Considering there seems to be no way out of the box Sandoval has constructed for them, and considering any chance of them passing a tax increase is gone so extending the session is pointless, how about a simple goal: Don’t Ruin My Summer Vacation.

Who wants to help me make buttons?