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May 6, 2015

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Firm predicts decline in Las Vegas home prices through next year

Las Vegas home prices will fall nearly 13 percent by September and another 6.5 percent a year later in 2012, a research firm estimated today.

The latest report by Fiserv, which produces the Case-Shiller Indexes, depicts a slightly better picture than its projections in November when it said Las Vegas home prices were projected to fall 16 percent by June and another 7 percent in 2012. Its projections for a decline are based from the end of the third quarter of 2009.

Fiserv said a large supply of foreclosed properties will continue to contribute to price declines in markets like Las Vegas.

The Wisconsin company calculates prices by what the same homes sold for in the past and not by comparing sales of what homes are sold in a particular month. That makes its forecast look bleaker than others, analysts said.

Nationally, prices are projected to decline by 5.5 percent between the third quarter of 2009 and September, but increase 2.1 percent by the third quarter of 2012.

In Reno, Fiserv estimated prices will fall 5.8 percent by September but increase by 4.1 percent in the third quarter of 2012.

Meanwhile, the share of homes bought by investors in December hit a record high as they took advantage of falling prices and a pool of properties under $100,000, according to a California-based real estate research firm.

Absentee buyers, which are mainly investors, purchased nearly 46 percent of all Las Vegas-area homes in December – the highest level in at least a decade, DataQuick Information Systems of San Diego reported.

That total is up from 40.3 percent of homes bought by absentee buyers in December 2009, the firm reported.

Buyers who used cash to purchase their homes accounted for nearly 51 percent of December’s sales, up from nearly 46 percent in December 2009, the firm reported.

The median price paid in those cash deals was $89,250, down from $100,000 in December 2009, DataQuick reported.

Sales of homes priced below $100,000 rose to 36.6 percent of all transactions in December, up from 32.6 percent in December 2009.

In a sign that first-time buyers aren’t as big of a factor in the market, government-insured FHA loans accounted for 42.2 percent of purchases, down from 47.8 percent in December 2009.

The median price paid per square foot for single-family existing homes dropped to $72 in December, the lowest since it was $72 in November 1996. That number is 62 percent below the peak of $190 paid per square foot in June 2006.

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  1. It is nice they have opinions but they are really nothing more then that.

    No one has that magic crystal ball that is going to tell them what housing in Las Vegas is going to do. You can work the numbers to mean most anything you want them to be.

    Now is a decent time to buy. You can rent them out and get a decent return on your money if you have some cash laying around. Better then keeping it in the bank making nothing.

  2. Gee, the teabags are now throwing out statistics, business analysis and market trends as "opinions?"

    I guess we should seek divine revelations like Angle, Palin and Buackman? rather than rely on economics and science. Or maybe we should listen to Glen Buck's predictions? He said the whole middle-east and maybe Europe "is on fire!" because of the Egypt Situation. (so go out and buy gold from one of his sponsors?) Oops!

    All the Stock markets are up today big time today and oil price is down. Do you see any Egyptians running around with little bags of gold coins buying bread?

    Of course any projection is not guaranteed. For example, if ex Governor List and the Republicans get their way they can move property values into negative values. The clean-up of the nuclear waste will exceed the property's value.

    The Republican Congress, eliminating earmarks, and the "private-sector ignorant" Governor Brian Somoza are hurting Nevada's chances of recovery.

    Obama, as community organizer got business to do things: hire long term inner city unemployed, hire small business start-ups and minority firms, stopped pollution, help eliminate urban blight, fund educational endeavors.

    Gov. Somoza was a glorified "step and fetch it" for the Republican business elite. A do nothing. Where are all these jobs he promised?

    The VA hospital, "O T Bridge," solar plants and freeway improvements have helped the State economy. Nevada was built on Government tax and spend.

  3. mred,

    You spend way to much time listening to bottom 20 hate talk radio. Hard to take anything you spout serious.

  4. @ vegaslee: agreed. What was the article about again?

    To others:

    Do I buy a house now, in a year, or in 2 years??????????

  5. You don't buy a house until the Prices start to go up; the housing inventory goes down; interest rates start to go up by a couple of percent and the population increases. The population trend can best be predicted by school enrollment. Let the Investors take the risks. Many of these poorly built homes will be trashed over the next ten years and will be teardowns.
    If a Neighborhood is not 80%+ Owner Occupied I would not buy there either. Look for a stable community built in the 90's or before for the best bets. That is only if you must have your own roof over your head.

  6. Lame predictions never meant anything to Las Vegas. If you buy into predictions, you don't buy into Vegas.