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April 25, 2015

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Many Nevadans feeling snakebit about economy

Economic reports indicate experts unsure when recovery will arrive

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Nasser Daneshvary

A single word drives the thoughts of many Nevadans: “When?” It can be heard in conversations at neighborhood taverns, as friends bump into each other or when business operators scan the books. When will housing prices rebound? When will the job market bounce back? When will I find work or get laid off? When we’re truly honest with ourselves, we come to a single conclusion. No one knows the answer.

UNLV economics professor Nasser Daneshvary is surprisingly honest for someone who works in a profession that prides itself on forecasting. “It’s very clear. Nobody really has a crystal ball to look at the economy and say what’s going to happen,” he said. “Everybody’s expectations are uncertain — businesses, employees, consumers. It’s an unusual time, not a normal time.”

It’s human nature to hope that six months from now the economy will be better, and next year will find us in a full-blown recovery. But the stock market is slipping, so too consumer confidence, while gasoline and food prices continue to serve as a drag on household expenses. Many of our friends and neighbors remain worried if not scared about what’s to come next. “Once you’ve been bitten by a snake, you will always be scared of it,” Daneshvary said.

Several important reports were released in recent days, each as guarded as the next when it comes to the regional economy’s prospects. The U.S. Conference of Mayors, UNLV’s Center for Business and Economic Research, and Brookings Mountain West each weighed in with signs of a stalled recovery. That 1.8 percentage point decline to 13.3 percent in Nevada’s unemployment rate during the first quarter of this year was tempered by the disappearance of thousands of workers from the regional job market. They had simply given up looking for work. Many left the community and were no longer counted on the rolls of the unemployed. It was not a sign of a suddenly re-energized economy.

“The U.S. economy is still struggling in the aftermath of the financial crisis brought on by the subprime mortgage crisis first evident in 2007,” the U.S. Conference of Mayors report said. “Improved employment growth has yet to curtail foreclosures, raise confidence in the market and increase household formation sufficiently to revive demand and work through the backlog of excess supply. And with prices falling, buyers have a strong incentive to wait despite low interest rates. As a result, we have delayed the housing upturn in our forecast to 2012.”

Visitor volume was up in April compared with a year earlier, but gaming revenue was down. Taxable sales were up by 9.6 percent. But the pace of economic growth in Clark County seems to have slowed a bit in April, according to the UNLV Center for Business and Economic Research. “With the U.S. economy downshifting, the continued growth of Nevada’s tourism, hospitality and gaming depends more heavily on a continued economic recovery in the West. Nevada’s real estate and construction sectors still show signs of weakness,” the report said.

There are serious long-term implications for our country’s job market and the development of our future workforce. Unemployment rates are exceedingly high for the young and members of ethnic minorities. That figure grows exponentially if potential workers lack college degrees, high school diplomas and a mastery of the most basic math and English skills, a particular concern for graduates of the Clark County School District. UNLV President Neal Smatresk routinely notes that 40 percent of the School District’s students who attend UNLV require remedial English classes; 70 percent need remedial math. Meantime, older workers are delaying retirement to counter the effects of lost savings and shrinking home values, further blocking workplace opportunities for young people, and it’s no different in California, the engine that drives much of the Nevada economy.

“The sputtering housing market is certainly having a significant negative impact on the California metros, as well as Las Vegas and the struggling metropolitan areas of Florida. These areas were highly dependent on inflated real estate markets, and the housing collapse has resulted in very high unemployment,” the Conference of Mayors Report said. As much as half of Southern Nevada’s tourism industry is driven by California visitors.

So what does it mean for the 600 to 1,400 Clark County School District employees who are about to be laid off, and what about the 258 North Las Vegas workers about to be let go, among others?

“Welcome progress was made toward recovery in every one of the region’s metros in the first quarter of 2011,” the Brookings report said, “but the pace was uncertain and the jobs picture clouded by continued troubles in the housing market and the threat of further public sector layoffs.”

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  1. I'm not a rocket scientist but I was smart enough to realize the LV housing market was over-bought once the value of my home doubled from the 1998 buying price and it would be wise to cash out my chips and sit on the sidelines until the bubble burst and things stabilized. I'm still sitting on the sidelines. I don't miss playing property taxes. I don't miss having to deal with HOA's. I do miss being "planted" however, unfortunately, we're not talking about packing up the kids and moving to greener pastures.

    I will miss my "home town" but I have come to realize this town no longer belongs to me. The powers that be decided that US citizenship wasn't worth a cup of warm spit and that the poor of the poor from a 3rd world country have a right to free health care, a free education for their children, and free welfare. The result, over 2/3 of the kids in our public schools are either Hispanic or Black (minorities). That means that when my kids grow up, the landscape of Las Vegas is going to be vastly different from what it was today or yesterday. The saying "there goes the neighborhood" comes to mine.

    I know, I know, I'm a "racist", right? I'd rather hang out, associate, work, and pass my time around white people. I'd rather listen to "white" music. I'd rather hear people talking English. I'd rather not have to fear for my life or my kids safety when I walk my neighborhood streets. Not to say that Hispanics or Blacks don't also wish for the same things, it's just that they're not called racists when they listen to their "own" type of music, watch their own types of entertainment, hang out with their own type of people vs rubbing s shoulders with a bunch of conservatively dressed "crackers". Bottom line is that the culture of LV is changing for the worse and nothing short of deporting the law breaking invaders will change things, and we all know that neither the Reps or Dems want that. Maybe Ron Paul would deport them all but the mass media will continue to brain wash the masses by labeling him a loon until everyone believes the party line.

    So, to answer the question, when will the economy of LV rebound? Never. It is on a slippery slope towards city wide ghetto-ville. Our nation is also on the decline due in large part to the illegals taxing local governments into bankruptcy. It's simple math. Taxes kill economic growth. Deficits need to be paid one way or another. Illegals suck legal tax payers money out of the system. Higher taxes are coming and will continue to higher and higher as the economy gets worse and worse due to the fact more money is going into the black hole that is the gov and less money is being spent in the private sector. Sorry, that's the way I see it. The know it all economist will fail to mention the 5000 lb pink elephant in the room to the demise of those who actually believe what they say.

  2. Spread a little darkness and -- out scurry the roaches of defeat and negativity. Our problems are what we've made them and they will be what we make them. We can either lament that being the playground for America is not enough to keep this place profitable or we can go on and become the playground for the World. But if we need the people of the World as our customers, we can't drive them off by self defeating attitudes and self-serving political commercials.

  3. Our nation is also on the decline due in large part to the illegal, unethical, greedy and self destructive profit taking policies of the "Professionals" that don't like paying taxes on their ill gotten booty. (Ha! Experts on Capitalism and Economic Growth Ha Ha! Examples for the WORLD on achieving prosperity Ha!)

    It is a proven fact all over the world, that taxes do not kill economic growth. Germany has the strongest economy in Europe, the lowest unemployment, their real estate values didn't drop through the floor and they are a "Socialist" Government.

    The same is true for Australia and Canada. 3 bank failures for Canada, over 300 failures for America in the same period, and Canada is a 'Socialist' country. I listen to the bad rap about Canada and laugh.

    The reason this Country will wallow in wasted glory is because about 1/2 the politicians and people don't want a regulated financial system. They feel the Bankers should be SELF REGULATED so they can (efficiently) rip us off again.

    Fast easy money for the important Executives. About 1/2 of the population doesn't know what has hit them and believe that a Police State using sidewalk interrogations is the path out of the muck...good luck Chuck, you dumb cluck.

  4. Government = And I quote Alexis de Tocqueville saying, "in every democracy, the people get the government they deserve".
    But alas, we are here in Nevada or Nevaduh, depending upon who you talk to.

    After the mind altering hits of the Wall Street economic crisis, unfathomable foreclosure rates, escalated under- and unemployment rates, and all the clap-trap spewed out of the promising mouths of the bickering 2 party system elected politicians, can Americans feel anything but STUNNED anymore?

    There is NOT a single state in the USA one can move to, so as to avoid all this misery, or promise of a bleak future. Many are looking to EXpatriate to other countries to economically survive!

    In Nevada, we have a serious problem with VOTERS and CITIZENS being actively involved and engaged with their government. It gives people, like Governor Sandoval and the Nevada State Lawmakers, and career politicians, for example, great opportunity to exploit that fact.

    Our USA Government and Nevada State Government,continue to not enforce immigration laws that are already on the books. We have experienced decades of UNcontrolled ILLEGAL IMMIGRATION and settlement/invasion of American soil, and NO ONE has done anything about it!

    WHY should Nevada LAWMAKERS change this cozy situation of having a populace that is 50% ILLITERATE and/or ILLEGAL IMMIGRANTS and the other 45% apathetic, uninformed/perhaps lacking paying attention to their education in government coursework in high school? This relationship serves them very well! It's the 5% that pay into their campaigns or make all the noise about them for for them, that the LAWMAKERS tend to speak to.

    This is a sad commentary about the severe disenfanchisement the citizenry of the United States have towards their GOVERNMENT!
    With what appears to be a functioning/or dysfunctional 2 party government system, all people can expect is more of the same unless we enact laws in the Nevada Constitution and change what we have been doing for over 100 years here in Nevada. Anyone interested in real CHANGE?

  5. Las Vegas is already rebounding, for those who understand it, know how it works, respects what it is about, and appreciates what it represents. For the rest, I suggest moving on. As I have said before, we are physically overpopulated by about 200,000 ... And now it is clear we are emotionally overpopulated by those whose dislike of Nevada and Las Vegas reaches across the Internet to consistently criticize who we are from a comforting distance.

  6. No Obama voter should be questioning the economy because this is what they voted for. More regulation, higher taxes, more debt, bigger government etc.

    No conservative or libertarian that I know of is surprised by this economy.

    No society in the history of earth has ever taxed itself into prosperity.

  7. Diversification? The only types of companies that would even consider moving to NV are those that employ "sweat shop" type uneducated workers. (Reality) Warehouse-distribution type industries. We have the office space built, fill those warehouses with distribution companies, it's a no brainer. Offer them 10 yrs tax free as they do in other places. I for instance am moving my corporation from WY to Costa Rica because CR is offering to let me keep my first 10 years of profits TAX FREE PLUS no tarrifs on stuff I import from CHINA. CHA CHING CHING! Why should I stay here? To support the illegals or wait to have the chit taxed out of me to pay for those trillions of tax dollars Bush and Barry handed over to the banks? Pay for Obamacare moving forward or an aging population? No thanks. I'll let the illegals who will soon become citizens pay for that. This is now their country. They won, without firing a single shot, they won. It's just a matter of time (50-100 years) before they become a majority in this country, nah, this Republic will cease to exist way before then. The "insiders" who allowed this to happen did so to bring to pass and end to one era in lieu of a "new world order" they've been planning for over a century. The US will be no different than any other country, economically speaking. BTW, the IMF says that in 2018 the US dollar will no longer be the "reserve currency" of the world, in case you didn't know. The ONLY reason the dollar is worth what it is today is that other countries have to convert their money for our dollar in order to buy OIL! That is the ONLY thing keeping this economy afloat, and that ends in 2018, however, the dollar is already taking a hit from the 3 different angles (bailout, fed buying, china and russia buying-selling oil without the dollar) Oh yeah, China and Russia. Thought they liked us? Were our friends? China no longer buys US dollars to buy oil from the world largest producer, Russia. They made a deal last year to x the US out of the equation. Gold and Silver started to run ever since and in a few years will be worth who knows, much more than today.

    My advise to those who want to stick it out here, move to the heartland, buy some chickens, a cow, and grow your own food. Make money on the Internet if you can or from home. Forget about being able to "get rich' working for someone else, the future of the US is low paying service jobs on par with the rest of the world. Invest in gold and silver coins instead of the stock market, that ponzi scam will surely be taking another nose dive soon enough when the dollar ceases to be worth much more than toilet paper. As long as you have food (raise chicken) and some land to farm, you'll be okay. I have a feeling what you produce will be in high demand soon enough. How will LV folk fare when things hit the fan? Not bad if your 'liquid" and can get out in time is my guess.

  8. Article on yahoo news right now "America's Top State for Business" and lo and behold, NV is ranked near the bottom. The factors considered were: - Cost of Doing Business
    - Workforce
    - Quality of Life
    - Economy
    - Transportation & Infrastructure
    - Technology & Innovation
    - Education
    - Business Friendliness
    - Access to Capital
    - Cost of Living

    Here is a list of the best states to do business from top to bottom:

    1 Virginia
    2 Texas
    3 North Carolina
    4 Georgia
    5 Colorado
    6 Massachusetts
    7 Minnesota
    8 Utah
    9 Iowa
    10 Nebraska
    11 Kansas
    12 Pennsylvania
    13(t) North Dakota
    13(t) South Dakota
    15 Indiana
    16 Missouri
    17 New Hampshire
    18(t) Florida
    18(t) Tennessee
    20 Washington
    21 Wyoming
    22 Illinois
    23 Ohio
    24 Arizona
    25 Wisconsin
    26 New York
    27 Oregon
    28 Oklahoma
    29 Maryland
    30 New Jersey
    31 Idaho
    32 California
    32 Arkansas
    34 Michigan
    35 Kentucky
    36 Delaware
    37 South Carolina
    38 Montana
    39 Connecticut
    40 Maine
    41 Alabama
    42 Louisiana
    43 New Mexico
    44 Vermont
    45 Nevada
    46 West Virginia
    47 Mississippi
    48 Hawaii 50
    49 Alaska
    50 Rhode Island

    NV used to be considered "business friendly" due to the low taxes, etc. Not so the case any more. They're starting to tax businesses and have imposed a number of pseudo taxes in the form of regulations that have made this a not so attractive place to move your business. The impact of illegals is much more far reaching than many of you realize and the main reason why LV will stay the course and continue in it's malaise.

  9. VidiVeritas,

    There is plenty of blame to go around. The Federal Reserve. The NeoCons. The Bankers. The Illegals. The Liberals. For instance, Obama was a creation of the Intl Bankers who run this country, yet he's a so called Liberal. Obama's mother married an Intl Banker from Indonesia after working for the Rothchild clan to establish micro-financing in Indonesia for many years. Obama's grandma helped fun Communist China on the down low and for her efforts became Vice President of the bank of HI. The white side of Obama's family is 100% blue blood with CIA connections. That's why Obama is blood related to all other former US presidents (even Cheney) except for Lincon and JFK. You see, the problem is much more complicated than you think.

    Rep or Dem has nothing to do with who is to blame.

    The NeoCon Rep's (communists in disguise) helped fund China and helped to outsource entire industries abroad. They also created an "open border" policy that encourages illegal immigration even though the illegals will mostly support Dems. (makes no sense, right?)

    The Dems like Barney Frank pushed for legislation to make housing available for everyone, even the poor. Libs loved the idea and despite opposition from the right, they got their way and made it easy for anyone to own a home. The outcome was inevitable.

    China became the largest holder of our mortgage debt and when they started to dump those assets, the bailouts were needed to keep our house of cards from folding. China was never blamed for the run on our banks, but those in the know know the part they played in our economic collapse.

    I don't blame the illegals for coming to the US to improve their situation, I blame those who don't enforce the laws, the politicians. It's never to late to change course and start enforcing the law however. It's simple. Until a child is 18, he is the property of his parents. If his parents are here illegally, they have to go back with their parents. When they turn 18, the can come back to the US if they so desire. That's the law. NOW ENFORCE IT!

  10. Also, VidiVeritas,

    Blaming does nothing to rectify the situation. Libs are notorious "victims" who blame everyone and everything for their shortcoming in life. Conservatives on the other hand are notorious for asking the gov to get out of their way and leave them alone (reduce red tape, taxes) so that they can innovate and create jobs, be industrious. Being the later, I don't care who is to blame for the mess we're in, all I ask is that we start to do what is right and enforce the laws of the land moving forward so that the legal citizens can find work, so that our schools can provide our kids with a better education, so that our hospitals don't close down and go bankrupt. If we stay the course or worse, reward the law breakers with citizenship, it will mark the end of our Republic as we knew it. You used an analogy, let me use one you might understand. If you have a cockroach problem which is caused by leaving food out and not enforcing laws of good hygiene, and heaven forbid you become proactive and spray to keep them away, how can you expect your quality of life to improve if your desire is to live in a pest free environment? The solution is obvious, you have to STOP LEAVING OUT FOOD (cut all financial incentive for illegals, no education, no medical, no welfare, no free child birth) and you have to become proactive (start rounding them up when you find them and deport them AFTER a 1 yr prison stint with hard labor in factories that make carp we now import from China to balance the books for the financial burned they have caused us).

    Problem solved.

  11. Clinton was the bee-ouch of the Gingrich run Congress and their "contract with America" to balance the budget and cut spending.

    Put the credit where the credit it due.

    Clinton put his finger up in the air to see which was the wind was blowing and went with the majority, and the majority wanted and got conservative change, for instance, and end to "life long" welfare (Welfare Reform Act). Who would have "thunk" that a liberal president would be the one to end life long welfare assistance for the poor, the victims of slavery, etc? He had no choice! Gingrich and his "moral majority" got their way and the result, a balanced budget.

    Bush was not a conservative, he was a Neocon. Look it up. He and his edomite banking buddies (same with Obama) screwed this country good, his daddy, same thing. Reagan? He wanted to change things, but that all ended after he learned who was really running the show (Bush) when he was shot by long time Bush family friend Hinkley. Reagan declared "War on Drugs" not knowing that Bush and his Skulls and Bones was founded on Heroin money and the trade of illegal narcotics. After he came out of the hospital, the plan was changed. The new plan was "Just Say NO" with Nancy, lol. They scrapped the idea of sending troops to hunt down and kill the drug cartels, rather Bush scrapped the idea. Instead, they decided to import drugs into this country in exchange for arms to the right wing nut jobs in So America. They laundered the money via CIA run S&L's that eventually went belly up to prevent disclosure of the drug money laundering and cost the tax payers over a trillion dollars, making the Federal Reserve Families that run the US happier than a homo in a dick tree.

    No, Bush was no conservative, watch your mouth! Us true conservatives know the difference between a conservative and a Neocon. The present field of Republicans are mostly all NeoCons except for Ron Paul. The rest are bought and paid for by the Intl banking families who own our debt. Obama is also. This country is SOOOOOOO screwed. LV more so.

  12. If VidiVeritas only knew how little (if any) in taxes the rich white people make in this country, he/she would be suicidal. Fact is we pay nothing. Zero. Zilch. Why? Because we control things, we don't own them! Who wants to get a paycheck and have to pay taxes! That's for the working class folk, not the elites. It goes something like this. You set up a corporation that makes money and instead of paying taxes distributes the profits to a family limited partnership or trust that is a tax free entity usually located outside the US. They give you a debit card to draw funds from said trust but that's never reported to the IRS.

    What about paying to import and export things, this country really makes a lot of money from corporations there, right? WRONG! You see politicians are mostly whores to the rich folk who put them in office and those rich folk make them put tax loopholes in place to help them preserve their wealth. Google "FTZ" or Foreign Trade Zone. I just did and found this list: These are areas all around the country that house our largest Corps. They are allowed to import and export their goods DUTY FREE all over the world! Isn't that special? You thought the scum bag citizens at least made a few scheckles from the business activities of our larger coprs, BUAHAHAHA! It's the "little guy" who pays the taxes in this country, the middle class, the paycheck earner, not the elites, not the corporations. They have the same contempt for you the lower and middle classes that you have for the bum asking you for change at the red light. They wouldn't piss on you to put you out if you were on fire. And you want to take money from them to help fix your debt crisis in this country? Over their bought and paid politicians dead bodies!

  13. MickeyA said it best: "They have the same contempt for you the lower and middle classes that you have for the bum asking you for change at the red light. They wouldn't piss on you to put you out if you were on fire." What I think is interesting is that it seems none of today's ultra well-off have read any history books. I mean, how well does that whole "Let them eat cake" thinking generally work out in the end?